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筋斗云哪里找来这篇东西！我是以前读过，因为郭老写得有趣，模模
糊糊还有点印象。刚才重读了一遍，好象没有歪曲了他的原文。关于
“恶败”二字，持这种说法的恐怕只有郭老一人。他老人家好做翻案
文章，有的对有的不对，所以并不能因此就认为他的解释是对的。这
两字若说焦循和朱熹因为牵涉到本家的名声而曲注的话，那么今人李
双和杨伯峻老先生就该对此正名了，可这两人也是同样说法。不过话
说回来，在先秦诸子文章的断句和会意上，历来都有许多分歧，有时
候很难确定哪一种是正确的。好在不管哪一种说法，于我的那篇东西
都无大碍。反正按照荀子的说法，孟子是休了他的婆娘。不过，好象
并不是因为半夜里常狗叫个不停才休的：－）
郭老的文章，要数他后来嚷嚷要烧掉的那批最有趣，也包括这篇。后
来的就不行了。最近常见有人骂他在文革期间写的新诗，如果读读他
以前的东西，就会发现其实是该笑不该骂的；你可以想象他老人家每
次在写新诗前都要说：“ＯＫ，ＴＭＤ，没什么好写的了，老子和你
们来作贱打油诗吧。“于是就下笔道:
人民公社就是好啊，
革命的奶牛肥又壮哇
挤出白白的鲜奶来，
给伟大的领袖养夜气呀
……：－）
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
GB 的同志可能看不到。嘻嘻。
这贴过吗？
孟夫子出妻 (作者：郭沫若)(转)
①篇前原有“作者白”：“这篇东西是从《荀子·解蔽篇》的
‘孟子恶败而出妻’的一句话敷衍出来的。败是败坏身体的败，不
是妻有败德之意，读《荀子》原文自可明白，孟子是一位禁欲主义
者是值得注意的一件事情：因为这件事情一向为后世的儒者所淹没
了。而被孟子所出了的‘妻’觉得是尤可同情的。这样无名无姓的
做了牺牲的一个女性，我觉得不亚于孟子的母亲，且不亚于孟子自
己。”
孟夫子一清早起来，打着赤膊在园子里养他的“浩然之气”。
他把两手按着肚皮，就象雄鸡要叫的一样，把颈子伸起来向后屈，
仰望着天，闭着嘴用鼻孔纳气，有得五秒钟的光景用口吐出着把头
复还原位。就这样反复着在一吐一纳。当他纳气时，他那瘦削的胸
廓从凹陷下的肚皮上挺出，一片片的肋骨是可以数得清楚的。那种
的工夫，在古时候的人是称为“熊经鸟申”，直译出来是说“老熊
吊颈，鸡公司晨”，意译出来就是“深呼吸”。
但他深呼吸了好一会，头脑总是昏蒙蒙的，就象在头骨下面有
一张布帕把脑髓包裹着了的一样。鼻也发燥，眼也发干，他的目的
是要保存着那清清凉凉的“夜气”，而在他的全身中却弥漫着一团
的燥气。他的四肢也无力，特别是十个指头，那里面就象有微温的
汤水在鼓胀着的一样。
这理由他自己是很明白的，他突然叹息了一口气来。
──“啊，我的精神如能象那蝉子的声音那样的清例而玲珑呀！”
他羡慕起在园角上的一株桑树上叫着的蝉子，自然在孟子的时
代，人还没有知道凡是昆虫的作声其实是含有性爱的要求的。
──“先生，饭已经弄好了，请上来吃早饭啦！”
年纪伯正当三十的孟夫人，和孟夫子成一个极端的对照，她和
夏天的清晨一样，丰满而新鲜。她上面穿着白色的葛衣，下面穿着
绿色的布裙，打扮得就有点象现今的朝鲜妇人。她打着赤足，捧着
一个食案，走到临着园子的廊沿上来，请孟夫子上来吃饭。
孟夫子不大高兴地把头掉过来看了她，蹙着额，只把头点了一
下没有作声。但他那无力的脚也被拖着，走上正房来了。他先进侧
室去穿上了衣服，又回到正房来坐在正中处孟夫人所安好了的席上。
这席不用说并不是如后人的桌椅，乃是字的本义所表示的席。古人
的席地而坐的起居，现今还在“日本”这座活的古物馆里面保存着，
凡是到过日本，或看过日本生活的照片画片的人，请把来提醒在眼
前，便可以仿佛得孟子和夫人的生活情景。
孟夫人在这时候又从厨里捧了一个小小的饭甑来。
孟夫子虽然是穷人，但他是儒者，很讲礼节的──这样的表现
却未免太硬，实则古人的所谓讲礼节就是现今人所说的“玩点宦派
”，说得更摩登一些时，便是要发挥些贵族的风味。因此他是正襟
危坐着，让和颜悦色的孟夫人跪着在一边替他盛饭。孟夫人不用说
是不敢和他一道吃的，要等他吃完了，收拾下去，在厨房里面自己
背着吃。就是盛饭时也不能用亲手授受，要用木盘来作中介，递木
盘时也要埋着头双手捧出去。
就在那样的情景中孟夫子吃饭，因为他喜欢淡泊，也喜欢吃鱼，
吃得倒也简单，是一杯鱼羹，一碟姜片，一盘凉拌的绿豆芽。这都
是孟夫人所经心做出的洁白潇洒的菜，然而菜虽潇洒，而孟子却吃
得异常矜持，他的视线只笔直地由饭碗移到食案，又由食案移到饭
碗，把跪在旁边的夫人竟连在眼角上也都不挂一下。
这是什么道理呢？孟子是那样的顽冥，那样的把孟夫人看不起
吗？是孟夫人有了什么失德？不是的，都不是的。这理由在矜持着
的孟子和怡悦着的夫人都是很明白的：因为昨晚上的情形和今晨的
是全然不同。昨晚孟夫子爱抚我们的孟夫人不是就如吃甜瓜的一样，
连浆液的一滴都要爱惜的吗？然而，就因为有昨晚的爱抚，故尔有
目前的矜持。事实本是这样矛盾着的。
原来孟夫子立志要为圣贤，他的入手的大方针便是要求“不动
心”，要求“存夜气”，然而在他夫人的身旁，特别是在夜间，他
的心却不能够不动。动了，在第二天清早便一身都充满着燥气，他
心目中的孔夫子便要来苛责他，于是便有这矜持的脾气发作起来。
他尽力矜持，他的夫人便愈显得天真，在人格上不只高他数等，这
使他倍感着自己的劣败。尤其使他难于支持的，是他的夫人要遵守
礼节跪在他的旁边，使他的眼睛一点也不敢正视。然而不正视也不
济事。他夫人的全身，那赤裸的全身，其实是充塞着他的感官的全
部。那从葛衫下鼓出的一对隆起的乳头，那把他的秘密什么都看透
了的一双黑耀石般的眼睛，那和怡，那柔软，那气息，那流线……
他就给受了千重的束缚一样， 一点也动颤不得。
“啊啊，恶魔！我是孔夫子的弟子，不是你的弟子啦！”
他一面吃着饭，一面在心里这样反复着叫。
当他快要把第一碗饭吃完的时候，他的夫人又恭敬地把托盘递
过去，要接他的饭碗。但他再不能忍耐了。他硬着乾燥的喉嗓说：
“请你下厨房里面去，盛饭让我自己盛！”孟夫人早就觉悟着他是
有这一着的，和顺地向他行了一个礼，把甑移近他身旁，照着他的
吩咐走下去了。
然而孟夫子的发作却没有因此而被解消：因为她所留下的氤氲
在她走了之后却专门在他的嗅觉上作用起来。无论碗盏，饭甑，菜
蔬，他身上穿的衣裳，他手中拿着的竹筷，一切都有他夫人的气味，
那似香非香，似甜非甜，似暖非暖，有点令人发痒的气味。孟夫子
急得涨红起了面孔来，把碗筷一掷，一翻身向着背面的壁上挂着的
孔子像叩起了头来。
“孔夫子哟，孔夫子哟，你提挈我，提挈我！我一定要做你的
弟子。我知道，你是把夫人出了的，你的儿子也是把夫人出了的，
你的儿子的儿子也是把夫人出了的，我是孔门的嫡传，这一层我无
论怎样要学到。你请保佑我，给我以力量，使我今天就得以和我的
夫人断绝关系，使我得以成为圣人之徒。”
他发出了哭声来在那里祷告着。他的夫人在听见他掷碗筷的时
候，吃惊着连忙跑来看他，不料跑到邻室来，却听见了他的这番祷
告。她踌蹰了一下，但终于决了心向孟夫子面前走去。孟夫子还伏
在圣像前的席上，没有抬起头来。
──“先生，你怎么了？”孟夫人跪在刚才跪过的地方，踌蹰
了一下，这样问了一声。
孟夫子到这时才突然吃了一惊地把头抬了起来，眼圈子有点微
红。“我叫你到厨房里去，怎的又转来了？”他反问着。
──“我没得到先生的命令便转来，很是失礼，但是先生，你
请饶恕我，我转来的时候听见先生又在祷告。”
孟夫子没有话说。
──“前回先生生气的时候，我不是向先生说过，请先生把我
当成先生的弟子或仆人，让我在先生面前服侍，先生不是许可了我
吗？”
孟子隔了好一晌回答不出来。
──“先生，你不要把我看成你的妻，也不要把我看成女子，
这是办不到的吗？……先生的周围没有我，我恐怕先生是会不方便
的。……先生，你真的把我当成弟子或仆人 啦。”
孟子长叹息了一番，自语一般地说道：“鱼我所欲也，熊掌亦
我所欲也……”
这是孟子所爱说的话，只说了一半便沉默着又把头埋下去了。
聪明的盂夫人是理会了他的意思的，晓得他这时是把鱼来比女色，
把熊掌来比圣贤，二者不可得兼，他是想舍老婆而取圣贤的。
孟夫人到这时候，觉得孟子委实可怜了起来，她向他动了一
番母性爱，觉得那个圣贤非由她产生出来不可。她是决了心要成
全他的意志的。
──“先生，你的意思我是明白了，我是要顺从你的意思的，
我今天就可以离开先生回到我的娘家去。我日后做女工也可以过
活，万望先生务必成为圣贤。”
孟夫子把头垂着没有说话。
──“先生，你请继续用饭啦。”
孟夫子依然没有作声，只是把头摇了一下。
──“那么，我好撤下去。”
夫人说了，行了一次礼，把饭甑加在食案上一并搬下去了。
孟子依然在把头埋着，但他这时候的矜持已经老早地轻解了。
他在他的夫人的行动中看出了他的已经死去了的母亲。他自己觉
得惭愧了起来。他一觉得惭愧，便感着了一个不小的恐慌──便是
他的夫人一走，所有油盐柴米的经理，该什么人来承办？他到这时
候，才觉悟到了一个极浅显的真理：一个人要成为圣贤，乃至要想
行深呼吸，都是有别的人作着些低贱的劳动来垫底的。
他低回着想了怕有二三十分钟的光景，最后是决了心走到厨房
去，要向他的夫人转圜。
但待他走到厨房时，看见厨房收拾得很乾净，而他的夫人却不
见了。他的恐慌愈见增加了起来，“她真的就不告而去了吗？”他
在心里惊疑着，把壁上挂着的孟夫人的一件下厨的围腰取了下来，
捧到鼻端来，尽力地嗅，感受着怎么也说不出的一种憧憬。
正当他陷没在那种憧憬的时候，孟夫人由外面回到厨房来了。
她看见孟夫子在捧着她的围腰，她连忙的说：
──“先生，你用不着亲自下灶啦。我刚才打从背道向万章先
生家里去来，我拜托了他家里人以后每天要关照先生的衣食。他们
立刻便要来看先生的。”
可怜孟子就象一个乖觉的小孩子做错了事向母亲求饶的一样，
他把围腰抛开，突然在孟夫人面前跪下去了。
──“师母，你不去，好么？我刚才的话是不足数的。”他两
手抓着了她的两手。
孟夫人赶快把他搀扶了起来，她那双黑耀石般的眼睛，加上了
一番润湿的光明。
──“不，我多谢你。先生，你是天下的师表，不是我一人所
能私有的。我留在这儿，于先生没有好处，我走了于先生有好处。
只要于先生有好处，就是向火里走，我也要去。”
孟子在这样很寻常的话中，却深切地感受了启示。他平常口口
声声地在讲仁说义，谁知道他的夫人并不立言说，已经在实践躬行。
他顿时感觉得他的夫人，好像比孔夫子还要伟大。孔夫子能够周游
天下，去宣传他的教义，恐怕也是孔夫人之所赐罢？假使孔夫人不
让他说出就出，他岂不是会有家庭之累？是的，不言而行，实践！
实践！我与其去远师孔子，我应该近法我的夫人。……
外面万章来了，孟夫子只得和他的夫人分了手，走出了厨房来，
但他此时的心中已经酝酿着了率领着万章们到齐梁诸国去宣传教义
的计划。
1935年8月6日
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牡蛎
牡蛎，我们乡下话叫作“鹅阿”，是产在海里的东西，江河下游咸淡交汇处也有，
我见过有结在桥墩上没入水下的地方，据说那能对桥起加固作用。大量出产还是在海
滨，听说从前是放很多大石头在海边上，使海水浸没，牡蛎就会生在石上。现在改成用
绳子把蛎壳串作一串，放在水里，效果是一样的－－这些我都没有亲见，说来也将信将
疑。
西餐中的牡蛎似乎是整个的端上桌子，由食用者自已撬开生吃，这场面实在难以想
象。牡蛎的壳闭得很紧，本身又不易固定，要把肉弄出来且不使汁水飞溅，在这全过程
中还要保持温文尔雅，怕是离“死要面子活受罪”不远了罢。
我们那里的生牡蛎是去壳出售的。水产档运来成筐的牡蛎，然后一一用螺丝刀撬
开，把肉倒在一个桶里，然后用瓢一类的东西来舀着卖。这样的卖法虽然不大体面，但
是享受美食又何需有一个落魄的于勒叔叔在侧才算是铺排呢？
肉浆一样的牡蛎买回家来，还是弄熟了吃稳当些。说起菜式来呢，牡蛎煎是我们乡
下有名的家常菜之一。做法是牡蛎和番薯粉（就是番薯做的淀粉，这样吃起来才劲到）
和鸡蛋调匀，加入适量的盐，在饼铛里摊开，洒上蒜青末，两面煎熟就行了。
至于“油炸生蚝”、“蚝油炒芥兰”大约都是粤菜，我们那里没有这样名目。从前
不知道蚝为何物，看到有人说起来那震天动地的样儿，以为是什么了不得的海味，后来
才知道就是“鹅阿”，是很普通的东西啊。
真的，在近海的地方，贝类是极便宜的，直可以说是贱如泥了。小时候，家里很
穷，几乎吃不起油，对我来说，油条算得无上的美味，猪肉就得托神的福，新年时撒供
后才有。鸡鸭之类是给病人专用的灵食了，更不比说。只有贝类，才是那时一年四季下
饭的菜，牡蛎之外，还有蛏子、蛤蜊、河蚶，－－我还记得蛤蜊是清煮的，蛏子可以下
些酱油。这是最对粥的小菜。牡蛎可要配米饭。吃米饭在那时算是“周末改善生活”，
对我来说是很值得盼望的事。还记得姆妈每次对我说：“乖阿，姆妈去买高丽菜，回来
给你炒钣吃。”我就会兴奋得在天井里撒花，去告诉每一个人。炒饭真的很好吃，焖好
的米饭，加上牡蛎和切碎的高丽菜（卷心菜）同炒，饭粒中吸收了卷心菜的清甜和牡蛎
的鲜味，贫苦人家的盛馔无过于此啊。
从牡蛎这个话题不经意扯到许多童年的事，倘然间自己却早不是那个在天井中乱跑
的小孩子了，这些年过得连我都与从前两样－－上个月偶然吃了一回牡蛎，生了一周的
荨麻疹。
庾荷芝
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>后才有。鸡鸭之类是给病人专用的灵食了，更不比说。只有贝类，
>才是那时一年四季下饭的菜，牡蛎之外，还有蛏子、蛤蜊、河蚶，
……
> 庾荷芝
好帖子！不过，拿“鹅阿”当饭吃的人，还叫穷，这是什么世道：－）
这里的鹅阿卖得可贵了，按国内的价钱算大概是六块多人民币一只。
一般都是生吃。由厨师撬开了，然后放在一片生菜叶子上，旁边再
放上两片柠檬，和一小罐子黄油，端了出来，十五美金就到手了。
按庾兄的煎摊来算，每张饼子少说也得用去十来只蚝肉，至少值三
十美金，可供一名希望小学学生一年用了，这种吃法，真让俺想
起来就痛心疾首哇。
说起开生蚝，俺有过一段切身体验：当初刚来读书时，为了谋生，
不得不去一个西餐馆洗碗。话说那家餐馆恰好是家海鲜餐馆，每天
要开大量的生蚝，这任务往往落到一个矮个的意大利厨子身上，
他又笨手笨脚，每次都是拿一把刀子找到一个可下刀处慢慢敲进去，
大概两分钟才能弄开一只，而且每次弄完后都要手破血流。因此这
家伙每次都是一边开蚝一边用西西里脏话骂娘。我至今仍会用西西
里脏话还得归功于他。有一次我看他如此痛苦，不由得插嘴道：
“应该有个更好的办法吧。”他一听这话，就忙捉住我的手说：
“上帝保佑！你要是能想出好办法来，我不但要让老板给你加薪，
而且换你去配生菜，让别人来洗碗，只要你把每天的蚝都包了去。”
我一听这话不错，就说一言为定。于是就回家试工具，试来试去，
发现我国内带来的一把开啤酒的盖子的东西真是灵验，，只要拿
那个弯弯的尖头部分插到蚝的根部然后轻轻一拧，蚝就应声而开了。
开一只蚝大概两秒钟就够了。后来我靠着那件东西，在那家店享了
一年的清福。临走时，把那工具送给了那厨子，他如获至宝，每次
用完都要锁起来，怕丢，还求我再给他弄几个。我上次回国时忘了，
也不知他用的那个还在不在。据说他缝人便夸说中国的工具管用：－）
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周作人文选·之二五
厂甸 中年 资本主义的禁娼
庾荷之扫描
肖毛校对
厂甸
琉璃厂是我们很熟的一条街。那里有好些书店，纸店，卖印章墨合子
的店，而且中间东首有信远斋，专卖蜜饯糖食，那有名的酸梅汤十多年来
还未喝过，但是杏脯蜜枣有时却买点来吃，到底不错。不过这路也实在远
，至少有十里罢，因此我也不常到琉璃厂去，虽说是很熟，也只是一个月
一回或三个月两回而已。然而厂旬又当别论。厂甸云者，阴历元旦至上元
十五日间琉璃厂附近一带的市集，游人众多，如南京的夫子庙，吾乡的大
善寺也。南新华街自和平门至琉璃厂中间一段、东西路旁皆书摊，西边土
地祠中亦书摊而较整齐，东边为海王村公园，杂售儿童食物玩具，最特殊
者有长四五尺之糖胡卢及数十成群之风车，凡玩厂甸归之妇孺几乎人手一
串。自琉璃厂中间往南一段则古玩摊咸在焉，厂东门内有火神庙，为高级
古玩摊书摊所荟萃，至于琉璃厂则自东至西一如平日，只是各店关门休息
五天罢了。厂甸的情形真是五光十色，游人中各色人等都有，摆摊的也种
种不同，适应他们的需要，儿歌中说得好：
新年来到，糖瓜祭灶。
姑娘要花，小子要炮。
老头子要戴新呢帽，
老婆子要吃大花糕。
至于我呢，我自己只想去看看几册破书，所以行踪总只在南新华街的
北半截，迆南一带就不去看，若是火神庙那简直是十里洋场，自然更不敢
去一问津了。
说到厂甸，当然要想起旧历新年来。旧历新年之为世垢病也久矣，维
新志士大有灭此朝食之概，鄙见以为可不必也。问这有多少害处？大抵答
语是废时失业，花钱。其实最享乐旧新年的农工商，他们在中国是最勤勉
的人，平日不象官吏教员学生有七日一休沐，真是所谓终岁作苦，这时候
闲散几天也不为过，还有那些小贩趁这热闹要大做一批生意，那么正是他
们工作最力之时了。过年的消费据人家统计也有多少万，其中除神马炮仗
等在我看了也觉得有点无谓外，大都是吃的穿的看的玩的东西，一方面需
要者愿意花这些钱换去快乐，一方面供给者出卖货物得点利润，交易而退
，各得其所，不见得有什么地方不对。假如说这钱花得冤了，那么一年里
人要吃一千多顿饭，算是每顿一毛共计大洋百元，结果只做了几大缸粪，
岂不也是冤枉透了么？饭是活命的，所以大家以为应该吃，但是生命之外
还该有点生趣，这才觉得生活有意义，小姑娘穿了布衫还要朵花戴戴，老
婆子吃了中饭还想买块大花糕，就是为此。旧新年除与正朔不合外别无什
么害处，为保存万民一点生趣起见，还是应当存留，不妨如从前那样称为
春节，民间一切自由，公署与学校都该放假三天以至七天。——话说得太
远了，还是回过来谈厂甸买书的事情罢。
厂甸的路还是有那么远，但是在半个月中我去了四次，这与玄同半农
诸公比较不免是小巫之尤，不过在我总是一年里的最高纪录了。二月十四
日是旧元旦，下午去看一次，十八十九廿五这三天又去，所走过的只是所
谓书摊的东路西路，再加上土地祠，大约每走一转要花费三小时以上。所
得的结果并不很好，原因是近年较大的书店都矜重起来，不来摆摊，摊上
书少而价高，象我这样“爬螺蛳船”的渔人无可下网。然而也获得几册小
书，觉得聊堪自慰。
其一是《戴氏注论语》二十卷合订一册，大约是戴子高送给谭仲修的
罢，上边有“复堂所藏”及“谭献”这两方印。这书摆在东路南头的一个
摊上，我问一位小伙计要多少钱，他一查书后粘着的纸片上所写“美元”
字样，答说五元。我嫌贵，他说他也觉得有点贵，但是定价要五元。我给
了两元半，他让到四元半，当时就走散了。后来把这件事告诉玄同，请他
去巡阅的时候留心一问，承他买来就送给我，书末写了一段题跋云：
“民国廿三年二月廿日启明游旧都厂甸肆，于东莞伦氏之通学斋书摊
见此谭仲修丈所藏之戴子高先生《论语注》，悦之，以告玄同，翌日廿一
玄同往游，遂购而奉赠启明。”
跋中廿日实是十九，盖廿日系我写信给玄同之日耳。
其二是《白华绛柎阁诗》十卷，二册一函。此书我已前有，今偶然看
见，问其价亦不贵，遂以一元得之。《越缦堂诗话》的编者虽然曾说：“
清季诗家以吾越李莼客先生为冠，《白华绛柎阁集》近百年来无与辈者”
，我于旧诗是门外汉，对于作者自己“夸诩殆绝”的七古更不知道其好处
，今买此集亦只是乡曲之见。诗中多言及故乡景物，殊有意思，如卷二《
夏日行柯山里村》一首云：“溪桥才度庳篷船，村落阴阴不见天。两岸屏
山浓绿底，家家凉阁听鸣蝉。”很能写出山乡水村的风景，但是不到过的
也看不出好来罢。
其三是两册丛书零种，都是关于陆氏《草木鸟兽虫鱼疏》的，即焦循
的《诗陆氏疏疏》南菁丛刻本，与赵佑的《毛诗陆疏校正》聚学轩本。我
向来很喜欢陆氏的虫鱼疏，只是难得好本子，所有的就是毛晋的《陆疏广
要》和罗振玉的新校正本，而罗本又是不大好看的仿宋排印的，很觉得美
中不足。赵本据《郘亭书目》说它好，焦本列举引用书名，其次序又依《
诗经》重排，也有他的特长，不过收在大部丛书中，无从抽取，这回都得
到了，正是极不易遇的偶然。翻阅一过，至“流离之子”一条，赵氏案语
中云：
“窃以鸮枭自是一物，今俗所谓猫头鹰，……哺其子既长，母老不能取
食以应子求，则挂身树上，子争啖之飞去，其头悬著枝，故字从木上鸟，
而枭首之象取之。”猫头鹰之被诬千余年矣，近代学者也还承旧说，上文
更是疏状详明有若目击，未免可笑。学者笺经非不勤苦，而于格物欠下工
夫，往往以耳为目。赵书成于乾隆末，距今百五十年矣，或者亦不足怪，
但不知现在何如，相信枭不食母与乌不反哺者现在可有多少人也。
（廿三年三月。）
（《夜读抄》）
中年
虽然四川开县有二百五十岁的胡老人，普通还只是说人生百年。
其实这也还是最大的整数，若是人民平均有四五十岁的寿，那已经可
以登入祥瑞志，说什么寿星见了。我们乡间称三十六岁为本寿，这时候死
了，虽不能说寿考，也就不是夭折。这种说法我觉得颇有意思。日本兼好
法师曾说，“即使长命，在四十以内死了最为得体，”虽然未免性急一点
，却也有几分道理。
孔子曰，“四十而不惑。”吾友某君则云，人到了四十岁便可以枪
毙。两样相反的话，实在原是盾的两面。合而言之，若曰，四十可以不惑
，但也可以不不惑，那么，那时就是枪毙了也不足惜云尔。平常中年以后
的人大抵胡涂荒谬的多，正如兼好法师所说，过了这个年纪，便将忘记自
己的老丑。想在人群中胡混，执著人生，私欲益深，人情物理都不复了解
，“至可叹息”是也。不过因为怕献者丑，便想得体地死掉，那也似乎可
以不必。为什么呢？假如能够知道这些事情，就很有不惑的希望，让他多
活几年也不碍事。所以在原则上我虽赞成兼好法师的话，但觉得实际上还
可稍加斟酌，这倒未必全是为自己道地，想大家都可见谅的罢。
我决不敢相信自己是不惑，虽然岁月是过了不惑之年好久了，但是我
总想努力不至于不不惑，不要人情物理都不了解。本来人生是一贯的，其
中却分几个段落，如童年，少年，中年，老年，各有意义，都不容空过。
譬如少年时代是浪漫的，中年是理智的时代，到了老年差不多可以说是待
死堂的生活罢。然而中国凡事是颠倒错乱的，往往少年老成，摆出道学家
超人志士的模样，中年以来重新来秋冬行春令，大讲其恋爱等等，这样地
跟着青年跑，或者可以免于落伍之讥，实在犹如将昼作夜，“拽直照原”
，只落得不见日光而见月亮，未始没有好些危险。我想最好还是顺其自然
，六十过后虽不必急做寿衣，唯一只脚确已踏在坟里，亦无庸再去请斯坦
那赫博士结扎生殖腺了，至于恋爱则在中年以前应该毕业，以后便可应用
经验与理性去观察人情与物理，即使在市街战斗或示威运动的队伍里少了
一个人，实在也有益无损，因为后起的青年自然会去补充，（这是说假如
少年不是都老成化了，不在那里做各种八股，）而别一队伍里也就多了一
个人，有如退伍兵去研究动物学，反正于参谋本部的作战计划并无什么妨
害的。
话虽如此，在这个当儿要使它不发生乱调，实在是不大容易的事。世
间称四十左右曰危险时期，对于名利，特别是色，时常露出好些丑态，这
是人类的弱点，原也有可以容忍的地方。但是可容忍与可佩服是绝不相同
的事情，尤其是无惭愧地，得意似地那样做。还仿佛是我们的模范似地那
样做，那么容忍也还是我们从数十年的世故中来最大的应许，若鼓吹护持
似乎可以无须了罢。我们少年时浪漫地崇拜好许多英雄，到了中年再一回
顾，那些旧日的英雄，无论是道学家或超人志士，此时也都是老年中年了
，差不多尽数地不是显出泥脸便即露出羊脚，给我们一个不客气的幻灭。
这有什么办法呢？自然太太的计划谁也难违拗它。风水与流年也好，遗传
与环境也好，总之是说明这个的可怕。这样说来，得体地活着这件事或者
比得体地死要难得多，假如我们过了四十却还能平凡地生活，虽不见得怎
么得体，也不至于怎样出丑，这实在要算是侥天之幸，不能不知所感谢了。
人是动物，这一句老实话，自人类发生以至地球毁灭，永久是实实在
在的，但在我们人类则须经过相当年龄才能明白承认。所谓动物，可以含
有科学家一视同仁的“生物”与儒教徒骂人的“禽兽”这两种意思，所以
对于这一句话人们也可以有两样态度。其一，以为既同禽兽，便异圣贤，
因感不满，以至悲观。其二，呼铲曰铲，本无不当，听之可也。我可以说
就是这样地想，但是附加一点，有时要去纵核名实言行，加以批评。本来
棘皮动物不会肤如凝脂，怒毛上指栋的猫不打着呼噜，原是一定的理，毋
庸怎么考核，无如人这动物是会说话的，可以自称什么家或主唱某主义等
，这都是别的众生所没有的。我们如有闲一点儿，免不得要注意及此。譬
如普通男女私情我们可以不管，但如见一个社会栋梁高谈女权或社会改革
，却照例纳妾等等，那有如无产首领浸在高贵的温泉里命令大众冲锋，未
兔可笑，觉得这动物有点变质了。我想文明社会上道德的管束应该很宽，
但应该要求诚实，言行不一致是一种大欺诈，大家应该留心不要上当。我
想，我们与其伪善还不如真恶，真恶还是要负责任，冒危险。
我这些意思恐怕都很有老朽的气味，这也是没有法的事情。年纪一年
年的增多，有如走路一站站的过去，所见既多，对于从前的意见自然多少
要加以修改。这是得呢失呢，我不能说。不过，走着路专为贪看人物风景
，不复去访求奇遇，所以或者比较地看得平静仔细一点也未可知。然而这
又怎么能够自信呢？
（十九年三月。）
（《看云集》）
资本主义的禁娼
日前看见“社会咫闻”里记上海租界禁娼的成绩，据说捕房对于私娼
从严取缔，科罪较重，盖以此等无耻妇女，实为禁娼前途之障碍物。原来
娼妓制度之存在，完全由于这班“无耻妇女”的自己愿意去消遣的做这事
情！我真觉得诧异，她们为什么不坐在家里舒舒服服的吃白米饭，却要去
做这样无耻的行为，坏乱我们善良的风俗？真应该严办才好。古时有一个
皇帝，问没有饭吃的灾民“何不食肉糜”？我也要替中产阶级对于此等无
耻妇女诘问一声。
但是我看了廿一日《觉悟》上引德国人柯祖基的话，却又与中产阶级
的捕房的意见完全不同。他说：
“资本家不但利用她们（女工）的无经验，给她们少得不够自己开销
的工钱，而且对她们暗示，或者甚至明说，只有卖淫是补充收入的一个法
子。
“在资本主义制度之下，卖淫成了社会的台柱子。”
那么，禁娼前途之障碍物，当然不在那些无耻的妇女，而在于有耻的
资本家们了；或者我们不归罪于个人，可以说在于现在的经济制度。不揣
其本而齐其末，有什么成绩可说。即使苟安姑息的在现今社会之下要讲补
救，也只能救济，不是可以一禁了之的。倘若那些无耻妇女的为娼，并非
为生计所迫，的确由于闲着无事，借此消遣，好象抹牌吸烟一样，那么当
然可以用法律的力去禁绝了。但是现在的情形并不如此；嗜好恶癖可以禁
止，饥寒无可禁止；虽然是资本家，这些道理总应该知道吧？
话虽如此，上海的资本家主张禁娼，虽然是“掩耳盗铃”，但不好意
思招承“公妻是资本主义的一特色”，公然宣布卖淫是必要的事，总算是
还有一点良心的了。
（十年十月。）
（《谈虎集》）
庾荷之扫描
肖毛校对
11:31 00-9-5
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Subject: [xys_friends] 芙蓉
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大网上的陈晓宁事件正如火如荼，咱这小网上的芙蓉
事件却可以告一段落了：－）
这几天重看红楼梦，到了宝玉祭奠晴雯为芙蓉仙子那
一集，终于看到了芙蓉花。为这花究竟是水芙蓉还是
木芙蓉，几个月前大伙一阵好争，今天俺郑重宣布，
这个芙蓉为木芙蓉，也就是苏杭一带常见的那种，叶
子象枫叶，花有点象是复瓣的芍药，粉红色，小茶碗
大小，树丛可高达几丈，所以有XX从花下、花后、
花间和花里走出一说。当年王扶林拍这连续剧时，请
了几十个红学专家做顾问，对这样重要的花，自然是
不太可能弄错的。我已忘了当初争论时我说是什么花
了，大概总是木芙蓉吧：－）
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关于“陈晓宁带回三大基因库”事件的公开信
最近，中国各主要媒体纷纷以显要位置报道美籍华人科学家陈晓宁女士携带“三大基因
库”回国，成立“北京博宁医学遗传研究中心”和“北京博宁基因工程科技有限公司”（注
一），并将三大基因库中最大的一个——人类基因克隆库（人类基因组细菌人工染色体文库
(BAC library)）赠送给国家，在同一天被聘请为国家基因组北方中心分子细胞遗传实验室
主任及教授，计划为中国培养研究生（注二）。国内媒体对这些基因库的作用、陈晓宁女士
的学术地位和贡献的报道，存在许多不实和夸大之处，陈女士被称为“世界生物科学界顶尖
级人物”、“建立了一套世界顶级的DNA及BAC克隆基因库”、“三大基因库目前在独一无
二、价值无法估量”（注三）。这些评价根据的是由陈女士的丈夫汪海涛先生担任董事长兼
首席执行官的“博宁”公司提供的“详细的背景资料”（注四）。为帮助广大公众认清整个
事件的真实情况，为避免严肃的科学研究被赢利性的商业炒作所玷污，我们做为已获得或正
在攻读生物、医学方面的高等学位，或从事生物、医学方面的研究和应用的学生、学者，根
据专业知识和对国际学术界的了解，特对公众表达我们的看法如下：
我们认为，陈女士带回国的三个基因文库对中国的基因工程的研究和应用是有益的，但
是其价值和作用也是很有限的。这类文库的建造和使用已是常规化的技术，在世界各国的分
子生物学实验室广泛应用，在国际市场上可以买到，其价值绝非“无法估量”，更不是“世
界上独一无二”。事实上，根据陈女士在论文中的注明即可知道，他们使用的人类基因组
BAC文库和小鼠基因组BAC文库，最早都是由加州理工学院的Melvin I
Simon博士实验室建造
的。在Simon博士实验室负责建造这两个文库的Shizuya博士曾向我们表示，他们由于想便利
其他科学家使用这些文库，并未申请专利以牟利, 而将这些文库交给一家生物技术公司
（Research
Genetics）以一定的价格向需要它们的实验室分送。陈女士所在的Korenberg博
士实验室最初从Simon博士实验室得到了这些文库。陈女士带到中国去的这两个文库不仅可
以从那家生物技术公司购买，而且可以以合作的形式向已有这两个文库的其他实验室（包括
Korenberg实验室）索取（按学术界惯例一般为免费）。市场上也还有由其他实验室建造的
同类BAC文库（注五）。陈女士在声称将本可免费获得的人类基因组BAC文库“赠送”中国
时，隐瞒了该文库的真实价值，是很不诚实的。
虽然我们并不了解陈女士在Korenberg博士所领导的实验室的具体工作情况，无法确知
陈女士在开发这些基因文库时所起的作用；但是根据Korenberg实验室发表的论文（注六）
以及我们对美国科研体制的了解，我们有理由相信，陈女士做为一名技术人员，在科研中是
很难起到主导作用的。
我们不仅不同意陈女士是“世界生物科学界顶尖级人物”这种说法，而且认为陈女士在
学术界的地位是不高的，所做的贡献是不大的。在其个人简历中所列举的职称、荣誉大部分
都不具有学术意义，有的甚至是有疑问的（注七）。
我们认为，象“国家基因组北方中心分子细胞遗传实验室主任”这样重要的科研职务应
该由受过严格的正规科研训练、有较深的科研造诣和科研领导经验的科学家担任。陈女士只
有硕士学历，自从到美国留学以来十二年内只在等级不高的学术期刊上发表过四篇第一作者
的论文，其中三篇还是只有一到三页的小论文（注六），没有表现出有独立从事研究和领导
实验室的能力，在这次事件中又有做为一个科学家所不应该有的不诚实表现。我们认为，让
她担任重要的科研职务是既不符合学术界惯例也不利于该实验室的发展的。
据陈女士在新闻采访中表示，汪海涛、陈晓宁夫妇创建“博宁”公司的商业用途，是要
利用基因探针进行产前诊断。我们认为，这是一个不能贸然从事、值得公众关注的商业领
域。中国政府应该加强这方面的立法和管理。根据陈女士的谈话，我们有理由相信，陈女士
有可能想利用中国较为宽松的科研管理和中国的基因资源来做在美国无条件或不允许做的实
验（注八），甚至从中获取经济利益，这是否正当也是值得我们密切关注的。
我们支持象陈女士这样海外华人科研人员力所能及地为中国服务，但是我们希望中国的
媒体对这样的事迹能够做如实的报道。新闻记者不应该轻信与当事人有利害关系的消息来
源，而应该向有关专家独立地求证其可靠程度，避免将商业广告当成科研成果。浮夸、虚假
的新闻报道和不公平的竞争，对正在兴起的中国生物技术研究及产业化只能起到阻碍、破坏
作用。
许许多多中国留学人员已经或准备归国服务，那些留在国外的华人学者也已经或准备用
各种方式为祖国服务。如果主要是利用资金、技术开办公司，应该按市场经济规律对待。如
果是做基础研究，可由国家在研究基金方面给以一定优惠。不负责任的宣传、炒作，滥发不
应有的荣誉、职务，只会伤害那些有真才实学的实干家。这对国内许多在相对落后的条件下
仍做出出色工作的科学家是极不公平的。同时，也会使很多受过良好训练，在相应学术领域
有所成就的留学生在回国问题上裹足不前。我们希望，中国政府和中国媒体能够更加关注那
些在中国脚踏实地地从事科学研究和技术开发的人才，能够以严肃的态度吸引海内外真正的
科学研究人才为祖国服务。
注一：据报道“博宁”公司已获得2000万人民币的投资，并计划在香港上市，见《光明日
报》2000年8月24日和《北京晚报》2000年8月24日。
注二：《北京晚报》2000年8月28日。
注三：一些典型的报道摘录如下：
新华社2000年08月20日：“美国洛杉矶塞达西纳医学中心分子遗传实验室副主任、美籍华人
科学家陈晓宁，携带着她研究多年的科学成果----人类基因克隆库、人类基因探针库和小鼠
基因克隆及探针库回到北京。她将把这三大基因库永久留在中国进行科研和相关的临床诊
断。陈晓宁这一壮举将掀开中国生物研究和产业开发的新一页。”
《中国青年报》2000年8月20日：“1988年出国留学的陈晓宁教授，如今已成为世界生物科
学界顶尖级人物，但她最终还是将自己呕心沥血研究多年的成果带回了祖国，……”
《北京青年报》2000年8月20日：“标志着我国已成为继美国之后掌握最顶级基因技术的又
一个国家。”“这些科研成果在国内属绝对空白，在国际上也处于最前沿的地位。”
《南方都市报》2000年8月21日：“据介绍，1988年出国留学的陈晓宁如今已是世界生物科
学界顶尖级人物，三大基因库目前在世界上独一无二，价值无法估量。”
《光明日报》2000年8月24日：“人类基因探针库和小鼠基因库，均是目前世界上唯一
的。”“该科学成果在中国属绝对空白，在国际上也遥遥领先。”“国外专家对她的科研
成果给予了很高评价，认为她‘在人类基因、基因组学及物理定位方面做出了杰出的成
就’，‘自1992年起，陈教授建立了一套世界顶级的DNA及BAC克隆基因库’，‘自1991年
起在世界专业刊物上发表了超过50篇的论文以及参加过受邀的无数的学术研究会’。”
《青年时讯》2000年8月24日：“陈晓宁携带着6只特殊的箱子要回国了，里面是世界上独
一无二、价值无法估量的三大基因库。”“1980年毕业于海军军医学院。1988年就读于美
国加州大学，1990年获得硕士学位。1997年就任加州大学（UCLA）副教授。同时兼任美国
CEDARS-SINAI医学中心分子遗传实验室副主任，北美中国遗传学家主席，美国医学遗传出
生缺陷中心副主任。国际著名学术期刊《人类遗传学》、《细胞遗传学》、《组织化学与
细胞化学》等编审。主要研究方向：分子生物学、人类和医学遗传学、细胞遗传学。”
“陈晓宁和Julie R．Korenberg主持的洛杉矶CEDARS-SINAI医学中心分子遗传实验室，参
与了举世瞩目的人类基因组计划，由美国政府投入1亿多美元，经数十位科学家历时7年多
的艰苦努力，建起了三大基因库：人类基因克隆库，人类基因探针库，小鼠基因克隆及探针
库。 ”
新华社北京2000年8月25日：“身为美国洛杉矶加州大学副教授、北美中国医学遗传学家协
会主席的陈晓宁，经过７年潜心研究，和实验室的同事一起，建立了世界上数据最全的基因
克隆库，……”
《北京晚报》2000年8月28日：“她的努力已使‘她的研究成果在建立覆盖整个人类的基因
组和染色体方面做出了重大的贡献’。 ”
注四：见《北京晚报》2000年8月24日的报道。我们收集到的“博宁基因”公司的宣传材料
也证明了这一点。例如“博宁基因”公司的宣传材料《陈晓宁：把世界三大基因库搬到中
国》一文称：“目前世界上独一无二、价值尚无法估量的三大基因库”、“该科学成果在
中国属绝对空白，在国际上也遥遥领先”、“陈晓宁成为世界基因研究领域的杰出人
才”、“1988年出国留学的陈晓宁教授，如今已成为世界生物科学界顶尖级人物”。
注五：例如，人类基因组BAC文库可以以$3000-3600的价格从Children's Hospital
Oakland
Research Institute in Oakland, Ca,购买：
http://www.chori.org/bacpac/11framehmale.htm
http://www.chori.org/bacpac/13framefemale.htm
注六：陈晓宁未发表过作为论文联系人（一般即项目主持人）的论文，只在级别不高的学术
期刊上发表过四篇第一作者的论文。其中一篇（下列第2篇）是篇幅较长的论文，但被引用
次数只有九次；另外三篇都只是只有一到三页的关于基因作图（gene
mapping）的小论文。
(1) Chen XN, Shi ZY, Korenberg JR, Sehgal A. Cytogenet Cell Genet.
1998;83(3-4):230-1
(2) Chen X, Knauf JA, Gonsky R, Wang M, Lai EH, Chissoe S, Fagin JA,
Korenberg JR. Am J Hum Genet. 1998 Aug;63(2):625-37.
(3) Chen XN, Korenberg JR, Jiang M, Shen D, Fong HK. Hum Genet. 1996
Jun;97(6):720-2.
(4) Chen XN, Korenberg JR. Cytogenet Cell Genet. 1995;71(1):56-7
注七：“博宁基因”公司公布的陈晓宁个人简历和陈晓宁在介绍采访时的自我介绍：
“M.D.（医学博士）”：据报道，陈晓宁1980年毕业于海军军医学院（可能即海军军医专
科学校），担任海军总医院血液科医生。1988年到美国纽约城市大学（CUNY）读生物学硕
士，1990年参加工作。没有任何证据表明陈晓宁曾经从哪一所大学获得过M.D.学位。
“美国加州大学副教授”：陈晓宁的正式职称是Cedars-Sinai医学中心的Research
Scientist，
兼任加州大学（UCLA）医学院儿科系的“附属副教授（Adjunct
Associate Professor）”，
这是一个挂名的职务，既不是主研究者（PI），也无资格培养研究生。
参见：http://www.pangenomics.com/main/about/advisor.html
Xiao-Ning Chen, M.D., Adjunct Associate Professor, Dept of
Pediatrics, UCLA School of Medicine; Research Scientist,
Associate Director, Medical Genetics Birth Defects Center,
Cedars-Sinai Medical Center.
“北美中国医学遗传学协会主席”：“北美中国医学遗传学协会”是1997年陈晓宁参与创建
的一个组织。参见：http://genecanal.uams.edu/
“国际著名学术期刊《人类遗传学》、《细胞遗传学》、《组织化学与细胞化学》等编审”：
这三份期刊（分别是Human Genetics，Cytogenetics & Cell Genetics，Journal of
Histochemistry and Cytochemistry）的编审名单中都没有陈晓宁的名字。
“美国人类遗传学会会员”：这是面向任何人（包括一般公众），交了年费就能当上的。
参见：
http://www.faseb.org/genetics/ashg/ann-meet/2000-call/form-ashg-memb.pdf
“美国每年要开一次遗传学年会，国际上研究分子遗传的学者都会向大会投稿，但是录取率
很低，我的论文从1993年开始经常被选上，今年10月的年会还有我的发言。”：美国人类遗
传学学会今年10月份的年会已接受了2000多篇论文，象陈女士那样要在会上做10分钟小组发
言的，多达270多人。
（参见：http://www.faseb.org/genetics/ashg/ann-meet/ashgmeet.htm）
注八：据“博宁基因”公司的宣传材料，“博宁基因生物工程公司：可提供全部人类和小鼠
的染色体探针，用于各种原因导致的染色体异常的诊断和产前诊断”，“准：这是用基因探
针诊断最大的优势，准确率达100％，无假阴、假阳等模糊之说。”这里的“染色体探针”、
“基因探针”都指的是FISH（荧光素原位杂交）探针。但是陈晓宁在一年多以前写的一篇综
述《在基因组的“深海”中钓鱼(FISHing)》（《生命的化学》1999年第1期）中承认：
“FISH和M-FISH是否能很快从研究阶段走入广泛的临床应用阶段呢?答案并不是十分乐观
的。仅从单纯的FISH应用来看，就可以发现其中的一部分原因了。FISH目前已广泛地被科研
实验室采用(包括一些临床研究的实验室)。但自从10多年前首次报道至今，FISH还未被广泛
地或合法地应用于临床诊断。”“在产前、产后和肿瘤细胞的诊断中，FISH或M-FISH技术是
否会取代常规的遗传学诊断手段?基于上述理由，目前遗传学家的回答恐怕仍是否定的。”
一年多以来FISH技术并无重大突破。
《访谈：把三大基因库带回国的女科学家陈晓宁》（《北京晨报》2000年8月26日）：
“我首先把基因库带回中国，除了我是中国人之外，还有一个原因非常重要，我带回来的是
我和我的同伴多年研究的成果，我必须珍惜，必须选择一个我可以控制的地方。实验室的一
个盘子上有384个不同的DNA片段，一旦弄错了，很可能就是一个畸形孩子出生，或者是一个
错误诊断，还有很多很多类似的问题，一点儿马虎不得。只有在中国我能做到这一点，因为
这儿有我长期合作的专家和我熟悉的人，我可以信赖他们。除此而外，中国的人口很有特
点，比如广西有一个村子，四五代人都居住在同一个村子里没有离开过，他们饮用的水里面
含有少量的放射性物质，使他们的染色体有了变异，但他们的身体状态是正常的，这就说明
了基因问题。研究价值非常大，这在国外是找不到的。遗传研究需要一个人口基数很大的国
家，中国、俄罗斯或者其他国家都可以，但我是中国人，所以我首先选了中国。”
2000.8.29.
起草：
方是民（笔名方舟子）（美国密歇根州立大学生物化学博士）
联署：
李洪林（美国西北大学医学院儿科系助理教授）
饶毅（美国华盛顿大学医学院神经生物学副教授兼中国科学院研究员）
胡艳芳（美国贝勒医学院分子生理学和生物物理博士，芝加哥大学工商管理硕士）
黄静华（美国特拉华大学分子生物学博士，环境工程硕士）
陈宙峰（美国华盛顿大学医学院麻醉学、精神病学、分子生物学和药理学系助理教授）
张锋（美国明尼苏达大学遗传学博士，芝加哥大学工商管理硕士）
宁志强（英国伦敦大学免疫学博士）
刘日廷（美国德州大学健康科学中心生物化学博士, 广州中山医科大学医学硕士)
方强（澳大利亚Monash大学生物医学工程博士）
王晨光（中国科学院发育生物学研究所发育生物学博士）
陈华（美国德州大学达拉斯分校分子和细胞生物学博士）
黄汉华（美国伊利诺大学芝加哥分校分子生物学博士）
张亮（美国伊利诺大学芝加哥分校医学院微生物及免疫学博士）
马良 （美国Tulane大学细胞和分子生物学助理教授）
陈一平（美国Tulane大学细胞和分子生物学助理教授）
康健（美国纽约医学院细胞生物助理教授）
戴佳（美国俄勒冈研究生院生物化学和分子生物学硕士）
吕强（美国布朗戴斯大学生物化学博士）
范晓峰（美国圣路易斯大学医院内科助理研究教授）
张洛欣（新加坡大学生物信息学中心主研究人）
卓敏（美国华盛顿大学医学院麻醉学、解剖学、神经生物学系副教授）
陈正明（厦门大学细胞分子生物学博士）
周伟国（复旦大学遗传学研究所分子遗传学博士）
胡卓汉（加拿大多伦多大学药理学博士）
黄正平（美国北卡罗莱纳大学生物物理博士）
邵金雨（美国华盛顿大学生物医学工程系助理教授）
胡全安（复旦大学遗传所植物分子遗传97级博士候选人）
骆嘉（美国西弗吉尼亚大学解剖学系助理教授）
王朝晖（美国芝加哥大学发育生物学博士）
李晓利（美国阿拉巴马大学医学系研究助理教授）
梅林（美国阿拉巴马大学神经生物学助理教授）
余昕（美国华盛顿大学医学院医学讲师）
粟俭（北京协和医科大学微生物药学博士）
刘明耀（美国德州A&M大学健康科学中心医学生物化学和遗传学助理教授）
LI Lijuan（美国杜克大学化学系博士候选人）
陆五元（美国马里兰大学人类病毒学院助理教授）
陆桂华（中国科学院上海植物生理研究所遗传学博士）
LUO Yan（美国洛克费勒大学生物化学和分子生物学助理教授）
杨燕敏（美国斯坦福大学神经科学助理教授）
夏斌（美国威斯康辛大学麦迪逊分校生物物理博士）
袁钧瑛（美国哈佛大学医学院细胞生物学副教授）
李生民（加拿大Laval大学生理学博士）
巫凌刚（美国华盛顿大学麻醉学、解剖学、神经生物学系助理教授）
姚建华（美国伊利诺大学Urban-Champaign分校神经免疫学博士）
卢坤平（美国哈佛大学医学院细胞生物学助理教授）
庞龙（美国纽约大学医学微生物学博士）
HE Zhigang（美国哈佛大学医学院医学院助理教授）
刘钧（美国麻省理工学院生物和化学系副教授）
管俊林（美国康奈尔大学分子医学系副教授）
刘佳佳（美国芝加哥大学分子遗传学及细胞生物学博士）
边建超（复旦大学医学院公共卫生学院副教授）
王革（美国爱荷华大学放射学系副教授）
ZHOU Jin-Qiu（美国迈阿密大学医学院分子生物学和生物化学博士）
冯简（美国纽约州立大学布法罗分校生理学和生物物理系助理教授）
LU Shi-Jiang（美国伊利诺大学芝加哥分校儿科系研究助理教授）
章纪放（美国宾州大学医学院药理系助理教授）
颜震（美国纽约州立大学布法罗分校生理学和生物物理系助理教授）
GUAN Min-Xin（美国辛辛那提大学医学院人类遗传学助理教授）
骆利群（美国斯坦福大学生物科学系助理教授）
韩珉（美国科罗拉多大学分子、细胞、发育生物学系副教授）
LIU Yang（美国俄亥俄州立大学病理学正教授）
（签名者的详细身份请到以下网页索取：
http://www.xys.org/pages/chen.html
http://www.xys2.org/pages/chen.html）
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肖毛日记一则
2000年9月某日
我想要犯罪，我想要犯罪...
第一个要对付的是我家楼下的那个什么都卖的小贩。
从上月起，有一周左右，他一连用麦克风在我家楼下说快板，内容是：哎，快来看，快
来瞧，一把高科技的土豆挠！哎，改革了，开放了，土豆挠子变样了；法轮功，打倒
了，土豆挠子变好了...
连续一周，都是这些话，从不走样！这时候我就特别羡慕我一个住院的朋友，因为他能
在医院里静静地享受，什么叫卖声都听不到。
好在一周后他消失了。可我没乐几天，他又来了！这回卖的是什么呢？请听——
哎，走一走，站一站，我们这里有一百种产品，全都一元一件，都是家家需要地呀，家
家需要地，不买没关系，看一看也欢迎啊（repeat again and again）
他说的不像上次那么多，我记不全。一共就是这些话，如果我少记了一个字，
我就要给我的耳朵做手术。
又是漫长的一周，我更嫉妒那个朋友，并因此而眼红了。周日，他说这是最后一天了，
可我不信，因为周六他也这么说。可是，周一他终于不见了！
感谢安拉！但是...从昨天起，他又带了一百多种家家都需要的东西来了！
所以，我一定要找个措施制止他。怎么做呢？我一直在严肃的思考着。
第二个让我想犯罪的那个卖炸鸡骨架的女人，她也在我家楼下工作。
她卖的东西又瘦又小，也要两元一个，简直太黑。这倒没关系，反正有人愿意买。可
是，她每天卖到快八点时，总要剩下三个，那就拿家自己吃呗，可她却还要坚持：便宜
了，谁快来买呀，五块钱三个！才便宜五毛，所以还是没人买。她就这么凄惨的喊下
去，喊得我都感到内疚而且焦急了：为什么没人买呀？我曾想要下去买了她的，又怕她
从此每天八点站到我家门外喊，所以还是忍住了。如果我能买通黑社会的人，让他们给
我派一条大狗来，在晚上八点抢了她那三个鸡骨架，问题是不是就解决了？幸好我受过
特等教育，始终没有把这犯罪念头实施。
我要犯罪，我要犯罪！但是，我又不敢呀，我真无能...
肖毛
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-8 9:29:00 jcwj写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>
> 肖毛日记一则
>
> 2000年9月某日
>
>我想要犯罪，我想要犯罪...
肖毛，先别想着犯罪。：）你可以打110投诉他们。
我以前住的地方四周都是居民区，怎一个嘈杂了得，凌晨三、四
点都可听到马路边那些火锅摊上得划拳声。以前我不大会划拳，
喝酒时常吃亏，现在拳艺大有进步，想必是睡梦中受了熏陶的缘
故。远远的划拳声倒也无甚大碍，我没住在马路边上，那些深夜
的吼叫即便拐弯抹角传到我的家中，也不过依稀可辨，若扎实想
睡，不辨它就是。最怕的是为死人守灵开的那些演唱会。本地有
个习俗，为死人守灵时要以戏班子和麻将桌招待吊客。戏班子个
个装备了高音喇叭，轻轻的一个咳嗽都会声动四方，莫还说扯着
嗓子喊了。唱的多是流行歌曲，听得多了，也摸出些门道，开始
时大多唱“好人一生平安”“爸爸你走得匆匆”“没妈的孩子象
根草”，中间大多唱“众乡亲”，结尾时肯定要唱“送战友”。
唱也就唱了，主持人往往还要极为煽情的来上几段缅怀，大家都
知道“天不怕，地不怕，就怕重庆人说普通话”，主持人大多是
本地人，偏偏个个都操普通话，配上沉痛的感情演说出来，搞得
人笑也不是（对逝者不尊重），不笑也不是（忍俊不禁），这觉
便在笑与非笑的挣扎里越拖越远，直至他们熄鼓散人——已是深
更。
螳螂
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>
> 肖毛日记一则
>
> 2000年9月某日
>
>我想要犯罪，我想要犯罪...
肖毛，先别想着犯罪。：）你可以打110投诉他们。
我以前住的地方四周都是居民区，怎一个嘈杂了得，凌晨三、四
点都可听到马路边那些火锅摊上得划拳声。以前我不大会划拳，
喝酒时常吃亏，现在拳艺大有进步，想必是睡梦中受了熏陶的缘
故。远远的划拳声倒也无甚大碍，我没住在马路边上，那些深夜
的吼叫即便拐弯抹角传到我的家中，也不过依稀可辨，若扎实想
睡，不辨它就是。最怕的是为死人守灵开的那些演唱会。本地有
个习俗，为死人守灵时要以戏班子和麻将桌招待吊客。戏班子个
个装备了高音喇叭，轻轻的一个咳嗽都会声动四方，莫还说扯着
嗓子喊了。唱的多是流行歌曲，听得多了，也摸出些门道，开始
时大多唱“好人一生平安”“爸爸你走得匆匆”“没妈的孩子象
根草”，中间大多唱“众乡亲”，结尾时肯定要唱“送战友”。
唱也就唱了，主持人往往还要极为煽情的来上几段缅怀，大家都
知道“天不怕，地不怕，就怕重庆人说普通话”，主持人大多是
本地人，偏偏个个都操普通话，配上沉痛的感情演说出来，搞得
人笑也不是（对逝者不尊重），不笑也不是（忍俊不禁），这觉
便在笑与非笑的挣扎里越拖越远，直至他们熄鼓散人——已是深
更。
螳螂
这些都还不算什么。我家的窗户底下大概是一个装修公司的居点，每天早上6点左右正
是好睡的时候，锯木、摩磁砖的声音就“滋-滋-滋....”，恨不得人想往下面扔臭鸡
蛋。我扔过两次矿泉水瓶，聊解心中恼怒。效果是没有的。
是不是打110真的管用呢？
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 肖毛，先别想着犯罪。：）你可以打110投诉他们。
:我听说：1。110随便打。 2。打110的人要被抓起来。 3。理论上可以打，
就看你敢不敢打。 所以，我从来不打110。还不如打点歌电话呢。
> 这些都还不算什么。我家的窗户底下大概是一个装修公司的居点，每天早上6点左右
正是好睡的时候，锯木、摩磁砖的声音就“滋-滋-滋....”，恨不得人想往下面扔臭鸡
蛋。我扔过两次矿泉水瓶，聊解心中恼怒。效果是没有的。
：我家的窗户底下肯定是有一个垃圾站，每天早上5点左右正是没醒的时候，垃圾车声
音就“突-突-哗啦....”，但我什么都没扔。如果我肯扔，还不如起床呢。
谁还有要控诉的？一起控诉吧！
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这次的签名人，有袁钧瑛教授等在内，份量不轻。：-）
陈的MD问题，比较复杂。
七十年代末恢复学位制度前，正规医学院毕业的本科生，
即为“医师”，并无学位。专科学校毕业的，则为“医
士”。学位制度恢复后，正规医学院毕业的本科生，获
“医学学士”学位。再读三年研究生，获“医学硕士”
学位；再读三年，给予“医学博士”学位。但是，由于
研究生主要是作研究，并不是作临床工作，所以这个“
医学博士”实际上更接近国外的PhD，而不是MD。有些
院校在颁发学位证书的英文版时，就将这个“医学博士”
直接译为PhD.
由于中国的学位制度与美国的学位制度有诸多不同，就
存在一个对对方的学位如何评估的问题。在美国，医学
院毕业的是MD(或者MD/PhD),而中国绝大部分医生都没
有MD学位。但是，中国的医学生所受的医学教育，在实
质内容上与美国的并无不同。对于中国正规医学院毕业
拥有毕业证书或MB（医学学士学位）的本科生，美国以
MD同等对待。比如，他们可以申请在美国作住院医生，
考取行医执照等等。而习惯上，他们也将自己的学历写
作MD。
也不只是中国有这个问题。比如，英国的医学生，毕业
后获得的是MB, ChB. 也是作为美国的MD同等对待。他
们在美国工作，往往也将学历简单地写作MD。
当然，并不是中国所有的医学院校的医学专业本科生都
被认同MD。各国的医学院，哪些是美国承认的，有一个
专门的文件列出。我现在想不起这个文件的名称和颁发
机构，但是在美国的较大的图书馆，特别是医学院的图
书馆里，应该不难查到。
台湾也是用“医学士”而不用“医学博士”。我记得它
甚至规定，美国的MD等同它的MB。
说起来这些问题都是“历史遗留问题”。美国的医学院
法学院都是职业/专业学院，不是普通的大学，先要取得
学士学位后才能进入（学科不限）。中国的理工农医都
是由中学直接升入，如果同样是本科毕业，医科授予博
士学位而理科仅授学士，当然不行。但是，医科如果要
5+3+3=11年才拿一个博士学位，显然又过长。目前的趋
势是医科改为七年制，毕业时拿硕士学位。但实际上这
仍然成问题。美国并无“医学硕士”这一学位。这些毕
业生将仍将被他们视同MD。然而，这些学生在医学院里
所花的时间，实际上远多于美国的医学生。
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> > 这些都还不算什么。我家的窗户底下大概是一个装修公司的居点，每天早上6点左
右
> 正是好睡的时候，锯木、摩磁砖的声音就“滋-滋-滋....”，恨不得人想往下面扔臭
鸡
> 蛋。我扔过两次矿泉水瓶，聊解心中恼怒。效果是没有的。
>
> ：我家的窗户底下肯定是有一个垃圾站，每天早上5点左右正是没醒的时候，垃圾车
声
> 音就“突-突-哗啦....”，但我什么都没扔。如果我肯扔，还不如起床呢。
呵呵，您老说得对。不如到公司再睡，还能搏个敬业的美名。再说，乱扔废物也是一种
污染环境，以毒攻毒是受过特级教育的人不肯为的嘛。
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Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2000 02:20:23 -0700
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From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends]
关于“陈晓宁带回三大基因库”事件的公开信（定稿）
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 07:09 AM 9/8/00 +0000, you wrote:
>由于中国的学位制度与美国的学位制度有诸多不同，就
>存在一个对对方的学位如何评估的问题。在美国，医学
>院毕业的是MD(或者MD/PhD),而中国绝大部分医生都没
>有MD学位。但是，中国的医学生所受的医学教育，在实
>质内容上与美国的并无不同。对于中国正规医学院毕业
>拥有毕业证书或MB（医学学士学位）的本科生，美国以
>MD同等对待。比如，他们可以申请在美国作住院医生，
>考取行医执照等等。而习惯上，他们也将自己的学历写
>作MD。
这个问题已经在读书论坛吵了好几天了，后来发现陈实际上连
医学学位都没有，所以就没再吵下去，吵下去不利于团结广大
中国“MD”（大家其实都明白怎么回事）。
中国的医学教育怎么会和美国的无实质区别？中国的医学教育
是本科生教育，重视临床，不重视科研，而美国的医学教育
是研究生教育，要比中国医学院多读三、四年的研究生教材，
做大量的基础研究，是临床和科研并重。所以美国的MD虽然
科研能力不如PhD，也差不到哪里去，而中国的医学士的科研
能力连理学士都比不上，更不要说跟PhD比了。
美国现在允许某些中国医学院的医学士去考board，仅仅是承认
其行医能力和MD相当，可不是连科研能力也一起承认了。有些
美国实验室接受中国的医学士以MD的身份做postdoc，那都是
很差的实验室，招不来PhD和美国的MD，属于两相情愿。大家也都
清楚，这类postdoc只是打打工，而不是做为以后申请教职的过渡。
真要申请教职，看哪所排得上号的美国大学会承认中国的“MD”？
>也不只是中国有这个问题。比如，英国的医学生，毕业
>后获得的是MB, ChB. 也是作为美国的MD同等对待。他
>们在美国工作，往往也将学历简单地写作MD。
我知道的英国、澳大利亚医学院毕业生来读Ph.D.，他们都是老老实实
写做MB, BM的。据说现在也有跟中国人学乖了，也写做MD的。
学位就是学位，没有“等同”之说。否则我在科大读了五年，还专门做
了一年论文，差不多也等于美国的硕士了，是否也得写做MS？
这股中国医学学士将自己当医学博士的风大概是1994年左右开始兴起的。
当时系里轮到我的老板负责招生，从中国接到了一大堆“MD”申请读
PhD的，还以为是中国的医学博士想到美国读双学位，自然比其他申请
者更够格。如果不是我跟他解释中国的这些“MD”都是怎么回事，中
国名校的理学士们恐怕都得让这些“MD”给挤下来。
方舟子
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To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 关于“陈晓宁带回三大基因库”事件的公开信（定稿）
Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2000 18:50:24 GMT
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 中国的医学教育怎么会和美国的无实质区别？中国的医学教育
>是本科生教育，重视临床，不重视科研，而美国的医学教育
>是研究生教育，要比中国医学院多读三、四年的研究生教材，
>做大量的基础研究，是临床和科研并重。所以美国的MD虽然
>科研能力不如PhD，也差不到哪里去，而中国的医学士的科研
>能力连理学士都比不上，更不要说跟PhD比了。
美国和中国的医学院，在课程设置和学习时间等等方面，基
本上是一致的。美国医学生，倒是确实比中国医学生多读了
几年本科，但是他们并没有比中国的医学生多读几年的研究
生教材。而且，他们读的本科，可以是与生物医学没有多大
关系的。
美国的有些医学院，开设了一些相对新颖的课程。教材方面，
内容更新比较快。这些是其长处。但是，总的说来，两国的
医学生在毕业时所接受的医学知识和训练，没有本质上的不
同。真正的差异，是在毕业后的住院医生培训和专科培训方
面。国内在这方面比较薄弱和混乱。
美国的医学生，接触和参与科研的机会和时间比较多，但谈
不上作大量的研究。只有MD/PHD双学位学生，会花上几年作
大量研究，否则拿不到那个PHD。MD是一个PROFESSIONAL
DEGREE，科研能力并不是重要的衡量指标。
>学位就是学位，没有“等同”之说。否则我在科大读了五年，还专门做
>了一年论文，差不多也等于美国的硕士了，是否也得写MS?
“等同”是就一国有而他国没有的学位而言的。美国没有
“医学学士”，中国没有MD （现在的医学博士实际上相当
于PHD）。但不管是“医学学士”还是MD，他们都是接受了
（基本上相当的）正规医学教育，具有从事医疗工作最起
码资格的专业人员。学位不过是表明一个人是否接受了某
个学科的正规教育和训练。从这个意义上说，中国的MB等
同于美国的MD。美国的MD在进医学院前接受的非医学教育
的本科教育，或者在拓宽知识面、人格培养等等方面有好
处，但并不仅仅因此就使得美国的MD与中国的MB在医学专
业上有天壤之别。
glnglx
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To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends]
关于“陈晓宁带回三大基因库”事件的公开信（定稿）
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 06:50 PM 9/8/00 +0000, you wrote:
>“等同”是就一国有而他国没有的学位而言的。美国没有
>“医学学士”，中国没有MD （现在的医学博士实际上相当
>于PHD）。但不管是“医学学士”还是MD，他们都是接受了
>（基本上相当的）正规医学教育，具有从事医疗工作最起
>码资格的专业人员。学位不过是表明一个人是否接受了某
>个学科的正规教育和训练。从这个意义上说，中国的MB等
>同于美国的MD。美国的MD在进医学院前接受的非医学教育
>的本科教育，或者在拓宽知识面、人格培养等等方面有好
>处，但并不仅仅因此就使得美国的MD与中国的MB在医学专
>业上有天壤之别。
注意，我们不是说的“从事医疗工作”，不是说中国的医学学士能不
能在美国考行医执照，而是“从事科研工作”，在这方面，美国的MD
和中国的医学士的确是有天壤之别的。美国的MD公认与PhD学历
相当，受过相近的训练，可以象PhD一样做博士后研究。中国的医
学学士什么时候与理学博士学历相当了？
方舟子
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Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2000 17:17:26 -0700
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From: yige <yige@mediaone.net>
Subject: [xys_friends] “干他娘”的艺术
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> 由国骂到省骂，可知中国有五千年古老文化之故，连骂也离不
>开原始本钱一味绕着女人的生殖器团团转。“他妈的”下边好象还
>少了一个字，特地去掉它，以便稍微高雅一点耳。而台湾省喊“干
>你娘”，则赤裸裸的仿佛更为结实。洋大人开骂，说你是“猪”，
>是“猴子”，是“驴子”，是“懦夫”，是Damn，从未涉及对方母
>亲或姐妹的性生活。而中国人则不分三七二十一，这大概是中国人
>进步之处，柏扬先生有一位朋友，一次和一位法国人对骂，他祭出
>中国特产，痛置其母其妹，该洋人大惑曰：“只要她们愿意，我无
>意见！”遇到这种对手，只好认输。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
（今天见汉林书摘送来柏扬的这篇文章，不敢伤了汉林的财路，
但觉得柏扬老先生的许多文章，都和俺的一样，有很多漏洞，
因而值得进一步探讨一下：－）
以前有人说了一句“月亮也是外国的圆”，差点没被唾星子淹
死。今天柏扬先生夸干他娘的艺术当属我国最高，我却一点也
不引以为豪。我相信当年柏扬下大狱在牢里肯定也没少干了老
蒋的娘亲。骂人就是骂人，是人类共通的一种下意识行为，本
没有什么高底之分。柏扬老先生硬要从中骂和洋骂里分出高底
来，以显示国人的劣根性有多么丑陋，可谓用心良苦。我想柏
扬大概并不太了解洋人是怎么个骂法的，若真要来比较一下的
话，我觉得我们的国骂虽然也不雅，但守礼多了。洋人开骂，
数西班牙人最厉害，就不比了，英国人够绅士风度了吧，不信
你断他车道试试；光是来几个“屁眼，吸鸡巴的，大粪头”算
是轻饶了你的了，重点的，一上来就是“ｍｏｔｈｅｒ
ｆｘｘｋｅｒ”！咱们在国骂里至少还是干对方的娘，而是洋人
却是要让你自己干自己的娘！要是柏扬碰巧在是那个断了洋人
车道的，听了这样的洋骂后，不知会不会来个一佛出世二佛升
天。
刚才出去了一趟，天热，于是也就入乡随俗地跑到一家冰激淋
店排队买冷饮。前面一小伙子买了一大个冰激淋兴冲冲刚要转
身出来，不巧“啪”一声掉地上了，于是只听一个“ｍｏｔｈｅｒ
ｆＸＸｋ”！粗粗翻译一下，就是要操冰激淋他娘。若硬要问
冰激淋他娘是谁，追本穷源，大概是佛蒙特州的某只花奶牛。
本来，洋人要操花奶牛也罢，围着生殖器团团转也罢，不管我
的事。可柏扬老先生硬要将这“干他娘”的艺术桂冠抢来扣到
我这样的中国人头上，却是万万消受不了的。
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 国骂的阶层
Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2000 20:50:22 GMT
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
>（今天见汉林书摘送来柏扬的这篇文章，不敢伤了汉林的财路，
>但觉得柏扬老先生的许多文章，都和俺的一样，有很多漏洞，
>因而值得进一步探讨一下：－）
>
>以前有人说了一句“月亮也是外国的圆”，差点没被唾星子淹
>死。今天柏扬先生夸干他娘的艺术当属我国最高，我却一点也
>不引以为豪。我相信当年柏扬下大狱在牢里肯定也没少干了老
>蒋的娘亲。骂人就是骂人，是人类共通的一种下意识行为，本
>没有什么高底之分。柏扬老先生硬要从中骂和洋骂里分出高底
>来，以显示国人的劣根性有多么丑陋，可谓用心良苦。我想柏
>扬大概并不太了解洋人是怎么个骂法的，若真要来比较一下的
>话，我觉得我们的国骂虽然也不雅，但守礼多了。洋人开骂，
>数西班牙人最厉害，就不比了，英国人够绅士风度了吧，不信
>你断他车道试试；光是来几个“屁眼，吸鸡巴的，大粪头”算
>是轻饶了你的了，重点的，一上来就是“ｍｏｔｈｅｒ
>ｆｘｘｋｅｒ”！咱们在国骂里至少还是干对方的娘，而是洋人
>却是要让你自己干自己的娘！要是柏扬碰巧在是那个断了洋人
>车道的，听了这样的洋骂后，不知会不会来个一佛出世二佛升
>天。
>
>刚才出去了一趟，天热，于是也就入乡随俗地跑到一家冰激淋
>店排队买冷饮。前面一小伙子买了一大个冰激淋兴冲冲刚要转
>身出来，不巧“啪”一声掉地上了，于是只听一个“ｍｏｔｈｅｒ
>ｆＸＸｋ”！粗粗翻译一下，就是要操冰激淋他娘。若硬要问
>冰激淋他娘是谁，追本穷源，大概是佛蒙特州的某只花奶牛。
>本来，洋人要操花奶牛也罢，围着生殖器团团转也罢，不管我
>的事。可柏扬老先生硬要将这“干他娘”的艺术桂冠抢来扣到
>我这样的中国人头上，却是万万消受不了的。
>
亦哥可以考证一下国骂这个“他妈的”到底是他妈的
什么？
记得以前看过他人的考证，这个国骂不如我们想象的
下流。大约只是“他妈的”养的意思，近似的有“后
娘养大的”。
柏杨的文章一直有一种殖民地文学的感觉，当然俺是
带了有色眼镜。：）
现代社会离婚率一高，这好象就不再希奇了。中国有
一句，“不是吃娘奶长大的”，现在就有所谓现代人
把社会毛病归到不是“breast feeding”。
骂人的粗话。柏杨能忘了F－word ，确实是有些不
专业了。其它的杂种，婊子，母狗，狗娘养的，狗崽
子，几乎是中英对照，看来人类历史中，脏话是最先
统一的。
最近美国大选，小布什与助手悄语，谁知助手的麦克
风也是开着的，结果“major league asshole ”被
全国人民听着了。“世界水准屁眼”。
damn 好象是宗教诅咒词，算不得骂人。
曾经读到一本讲这些的书，讲到语言发泄的不同阶层
用语。是人讲话都需要一定语言发泄，上层就是要尽
量用不明显的话代替。比如，修房子钉钉子锤在手指
上，下层人说：“Oh ，fuck ！”；那么，上层人
会说：“Oh ，shoot ！”。
后来碰到你文中提到的，“mother fxxker ”，我下
意识一代替，变成了“mother shooter”，果然文
明了，大笑。
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From fang@xys.org Sun Sep 10 22:06:37 2000 -0700
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To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
From: yige <yige@mediaone.net>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 国骂的阶层
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>
>亦哥可以考证一下国骂这个“他妈的”到底是他妈的
>什么？
这个就算了，各地的骂法不一样，反正是个Ｘ就是了。
>后来碰到你文中提到的，“mother fxxker ”，我下
>意识一代替，变成了“mother shooter”，果然文
>明了，大笑。
筋斗云好样的！能够提着根斯提克照样骂大街，而且骂
得一点都不丢身份，这水平比俺高，服了：－）
说到“他妈的”，想起一个很有趣的故事：
话说当年何应钦任湖南省长时，权势炙手可热，谁也不敢
去捋他的虎须。这年清明他去岳麓山替母亲扫墓，当天就
指示手下要各地报纸于第二天在头版醒目位置刊登一条新
闻，标题是“何省长于昨日去岳麓山扫其母之墓”。消息
是发下去了，绝大多数报纸也是照登了这条新闻，唯独一
家小报登出来的标题稍有不同，何省长一看，差点气得脑
溢血。原来那标题是
《何省长于昨日去岳麓山扫他妈的墓！》
亦歌
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-10 20:50:00 Dan Windover写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>>以前有人说了一句“月亮也是外国的圆”，差点没被唾星子淹
>>死。今天柏扬先生夸干他娘的艺术当属我国最高，我却一点也
>>不引以为豪。我相信当年柏扬下大狱在牢里肯定也没少干了老
>>蒋的娘亲。骂人就是骂人，是人类共通的一种下意识行为，本
>>没有什么高底之分。柏扬老先生硬要从中骂和洋骂里分出高底
>>来，以显示国人的劣根性有多么丑陋，可谓用心良苦。我想柏
>>扬大概并不太了解洋人是怎么个骂法的，若真要来比较一下的
>>话，我觉得我们的国骂虽然也不雅，但守礼多了。洋人开骂，
>>数西班牙人最厉害，就不比了，英国人够绅士风度了吧，不信
>>你断他车道试试；光是来几个“屁眼，吸鸡巴的，大粪头”算
>>是轻饶了你的了，重点的，一上来就是“ｍｏｔｈｅｒ
>>ｆｘｘｋｅｒ”！咱们在国骂里至少还是干对方的娘，而是洋人
>>却是要让你自己干自己的娘！要是柏扬碰巧在是那个断了洋人
>>车道的，听了这样的洋骂后，不知会不会来个一佛出世二佛升
>>天。
我看过的英文小说里，《教父》里骂人话比较多，值得推荐。：）
这本书再流行不过的，柏杨大概不肯看流行小说，只看高尚
的经典，所以不知道有如此精彩的洋骂。
>最近美国大选，小布什与助手悄语，谁知助手的麦克
>风也是开着的，结果“major league asshole ”被
>全国人民听着了。“世界水准屁眼”。
小布施倒是很“亲民”。：）
说来这粗口真是无可避免。记得以前我在青海时，在山上染
上了出口带“话把”的恶习。有次下来到医院几个相识的护
士那里聊天，恶习一时改不过来，我自己倒不觉得。有个护
士受不了了，直言警告：你说话注意点，没上去多久，怎么
变得这么粗俗。把我搞得脸红脖子粗的。天可怜见，我真没
有冒犯她们的意思，那些个不雅之词只是当语气助词在用。
就是现在，几个哥们儿一堆喝酒，别看平常都人五人六的，
到时也是“语气助词”不断。：）
螳螂
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From: "HuZi (Jerry Wang)" <huzi@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 国骂的阶层
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>话说当年何应钦任湖南省长时，权势炙手可热，谁也不敢
>去捋他的虎须。这年清明他去岳麓山替母亲扫墓，当天就
>指示手下要各地报纸于第二天在头版醒目位置刊登一条新
>闻，标题是“何省长于昨日去岳麓山扫其母之墓”。消息
>是发下去了，绝大多数报纸也是照登了这条新闻，唯独一
>家小报登出来的标题稍有不同，何省长一看，差点气得脑
>溢血。原来那标题是
>
>《何省长于昨日去岳麓山扫他妈的墓！》
是何键吧？杀了杨开慧的那个。
虎子
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
我看过的英文小说里，《教父》里骂人话比较多，值得推荐。：）
：不过那里有很多都是俚语，不容易为别人理解的吧？
就是现在，几个哥们儿一堆喝酒，别看平常都人五人六的，
到时也是“语气助词”不断。：）
：其实，我想骂人有新名词不可怕，最可怕的是无时无地不骂，
即使骂的都是“习惯用法”。我们这里，不论男女老少均是如此，早听习惯了。
我曾和网上的朋友说，我从来没有说过“切口”，他们却不信。因为哈尔滨
人似乎成了流氓加无赖的象征，谁信我呀？如果我们到外地去，一般
是没人敢惹我们，但正常话也没人愿意对我们说，就因为我们是哈尔滨人！
这样也好，能对我这种不愿惹事的人起保护作用:-)
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To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>, xys_friends@listbot.com
From: "HuZi (Jerry Wang)" <huzi@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 国骂的阶层
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>量用不明显的话代替。比如，修房子钉钉子锤在手指
>上，下层人说：“Oh ，fuck ！”；那么，上层人
>会说：“Oh ，shoot ！”。
>后来碰到你文中提到的，“mother fxxker ”，我下
>意识一代替，变成了“mother shooter”，果然文
>明了，大笑。
shoot是从shit变来的，和FXXX倒没有亲戚关系。这在俺们美南特
别流行。
不过柏杨老儿这篇东东确实太不专业。可能是他在牢里写的，信
息不太足够？：)话说回来，洋人也并非不在意他人拿自己母亲开
涮。不知为什么许多人都有这种错觉，连金庸金大侠也这么说，还
写进了鹿鼎记。
虎子
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Date: 11 Sep 00 00:41:35 PDT
From: Old Eastern Evil <EasternEvil@netscape.net>
To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
赌饼, 或称博饼, 是厦门的一个传统中秋习俗, 非常热闹有趣.
中秋前后每到晚上, 整个厦门大街小巷都是叮呤当啷的骰子声,
家家户户都在博饼. 早年允许放鞭炮的时候, 最后博到状元的
人要出去到门口或阳台上放一串鞭炮, 然后回来操刀切开状元
饼给众人分食.
博饼的道具是一副六个骰子, 和一个弹性好响声脆的青花瓷碗.
奖品是一盒划分了很多等级的"会饼". 一群人团团围坐, 轮流
把骰子掷到碗里, 看着骰子们转呀转呀, 最后停下来的点数如
果到了一定标准, 就可以从盒子里拿出一个饼摆到自己面前.
下面列出规则. 比如说第一行, 表明六个骰子里有且只有一个
四的话, 那中的就是秀才, 可以拿一个秀才饼; 一盒会饼里一
共有32个秀才饼.
秀才 32 一个四
举人 16 两个四
进士 8 有四个除四以外一样的点数, 比如四个五.
三红 4 三个四
对长 2 一二三四五六
状元 1 状元 - 四个四
五子 - 五个除四以外一样的点数, 比如五个三.
五皇 - 五个四
状元插金花 - 四个四带两个一
满堂红 * 六个四
这是按从小到大的顺序排下来的, 最小的饼当然是秀才饼, 最
大的饼是状元饼. 不过会饼中最好吃的一向是三红饼, 所以颇
有些实用主义者什么都不要, 只抢三红. :)
有些饼是可以兼得的, 比如一把掷出四个三加上两个四, 那就
既得举人又得进士, 不亦乐乎, 不亦快哉.
一场博饼中最引人注目的当然都是状元的角逐. 状元是可以比
大小的, 比如你掷出四个四带七点(也就是另外两个骰子加起来
是七点), 而我是四个四带一点, 那你的状元就比我大, 状元是
你的; 但如果我又掷出五个三带五点, 那又比你大了, 状元是
我的. 单论状元, 最大的是状元插金花, 四个四带两个一, 没
有比这更大的了.
因为游戏要到所有的饼都有了归属之时才结束, 所以中了状元
的人往往要祈祷盒子里其他的饼赶快被其他人博走, 要不然随
时可能会有人中一个更大的状元, 把你的状元饼抢走.
但就算到了某一个掷完所有饼都有着落了, 此时的状元还不能
松掉这口气, 因为规矩是要等这一圈所有人都掷完了还没人出
更大的状元, 游戏才算结束.
最霸道的是满堂红(六个四), 你能博出满堂红, 那桌上所有的
饼都归你了.
这么不讲理的满堂红, 只有一个更不讲理的手段能够与之抗衡,
那就是满堂黑: 六个六.
满堂黑就是关了灯大家抢, 五分钟之后开灯, 谁抢到的饼就是
谁的, 没有道理可说.
不过俺至今没听说有谁博出过满堂红或是满堂黑, 呵呵.
俺从九五年出国, 至今已有五年没有回家博饼了. 每年中秋老
爸老妈的电话或email里总会跟我讲讲这一次家里博饼的盛况,
还有谁得了这一年的状元, 是个多大的状元, 等等.
不知什么时候俺能够在米国也痛痛快快赌一回饼. sigh...
-- 老东邪
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From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: [xys_friends] 风雨纵横“新语丝”
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
（原载《中国青年报·数字青年》2000年9月4日、11日。该刊可从以下网页取阅：
http://202.99.23.201/index.html）
风雨纵横“新语丝”
·方舟子·
一、创刊
谈起新语丝的历史，不能不先从国际互联网中文新闻组alt.chinese.text（ACT）
谈起。在一段时间内，《新语丝》一直被视为是ACT的刊物。我是在1993年8月开始在
ACT上张贴的，当时有好几万中国留学生阅读这个新闻组，那里的张贴跟其他新闻组一
样，绝大部分是垃圾，但偶尔也可见到好文章。经常在那里活动的网人中，有一些文
笔也相当不错，可以说把当时留学生中的文章好手都囊括了进去。图雅在1993年10月
为文摘性的电子刊物《华夏文摘》编了一期“留学生文学专辑”增刊，就都是向当时
的ACT活跃分子约的稿。在图雅向我约稿时，我向他建议，不如以后就每个月定期出
一期文学副刊。图雅对这个设想很赞成，并向《华夏文摘》推荐我担任这个副刊的编
辑。不料恰好在这时，我批评《华夏文摘》上的一篇文章违背历史事实，在ACT上引发
了一场争论，持续到年底，其结果是：《华夏文摘》拒绝刊登我的批评文章，图雅退
出《华夏文摘》，《华夏文摘》也否决了定期出版文学副刊的提议。我便决定自己干，
于1994年年初在ACT贴出了出版中文网杂志的建议。贴出后却如石沉大海，没有什么反
响，问了几个网友，都说没见到。请网络高手追查，才发现原来是《华夏文摘》的人
从中作梗，用伪造的办法取消我的张贴。这件事被揭露出来后，一时ACT上群情激昂。
我请了大约50名活跃分子参与刊物的筹备，通过讨论、投票确定了刊名和办刊方针，
选定了9名编辑，在1994年2月10日春节这一天，出版了创刊号。
二、刊名
我在ACT上贴出征集刊名启事后，共收到了近百个应征的名称。既然是网络刊物，
这些名称也就都在“网”字上打转。我自己想到的是“天网”，有气派，但容易让人
误会是法制刊物。图雅建议用“促织”，有点韵味，却又未免太女气。他又说：“语
丝”本来也不错，可惜历史上已有过这个名称的刊物。我一见“语丝”之名，顿觉得
来全不费功夫。《语丝》这份同人刊物，可以做为筹备中的刊物的榜样，“语丝”这
两个字，本来没有特殊的意思，但对于在网上“吐语成丝”的网络文学，却有了新的
意义，加上一个“新”字，既有别于以前的《语丝》，也表示这是网络时代的新型刊
物。于是我就改为支持“新语丝”之名了。我挑了十个赞成者较多的名称在筹备组投
票，投了三轮，“新语丝”才战胜“网萃”当选。“网萃”和其他几个落选的名称
（“牛肆”、“丝露集”、“网里乾坤”）后来就成了《新语丝》的固定栏目的名称。
经常有人问，新语丝网站上那三字漂亮的“新语丝”是谁写的？那是我从鲁迅手
稿中选出来的，至于用的是哪两篇手稿，已经忘了。
三、文库
《新语丝》杂志每个月才固定出一期，吸引大家每天访问新语丝网站的，主要是
基本上每天更新的电子文库。这个文库创建于1995年6月。当时在ACT上时不时有人张
贴自己输入的中文经典作品，为避免散失和便于查找，我提议建一个公共存档处。最
初的计划只是收藏最有价值的古典文学作品和鲁迅著作，后来才慢慢扩大了收藏范围。
它一开始是一个FTP存档点，供下载离线阅读或打印。1996年10月，才建立了新语丝万
维网站，不过主要文件仍然是纯文本，即是FTP时代的残余。这个文库起初是我个人
的资料库，后来虽然叫做“新语丝电子文库”，但与《新语丝》杂志不同，仍然是由
我一个人管理。事实上，除了有一次我回国两个月期间由杏儿代劳，从建立到现在，
电子文库的每一篇收藏都是经我过目后亲手加入的。这样做的好处，是保证了质量的
一致性。坏处当然是由于个人精力有限，无法大批加入新资料。新语丝电子文库以前
以资料齐全出名，现在在数量上已无法跟商业的网站相比，改以质量取胜，也未尝
不是一条路子。
四、机构
新语丝原来是一个非正式的同人组织。第一届编辑部是我个人邀请成立的。以后
因种种原因，有人退出，就需要补充新成员。我们对新成员的选择较严格，先要由编
辑推荐，在编辑部投票，如果有半数以上赞成，而又无人反对，再由我向候选人发
函邀请，如果候选人接受邀请，就成了新编辑。
新语丝成立之时，已定好了不设主编，而是轮流执政，每人轮流担任一个月的责
任编辑。一开始有位编辑自荐担任固定校对，后来发现该名校对把自己当成了主编，
不尊重责任编辑的意见，于是连固定校对也取消了，也开始轮流，由下一任责任编辑
担任校对。当然，做为一个组织，即使是非正式的，也是要有个代表人跟外界联系的，
于是从创刊号开始，就注明我是新语丝的“联系人”。
1996年年底，加州的一家网络公司试图收编海外中文电子刊物，与我们联系，说
是想建立长期的合作关系，可以为新语丝提供技术支持。对此我们不能不抱着戒心，
做为一个非正式的组织，没有法律地位，很容易被悄悄地瓦解、侵吞。于是我们
开始计划将新语丝正式登记注册。1997年年初，与这家网络公司的初次合作演变成了
一场凶恶的权益争夺战，这家公司想要吞并新语丝的企图暴露无余，并且已事先拉拢
了几名新语丝的编辑。那几名编辑对我的攻击、谩骂与网上痞子的口吻一模一样，多
年的同事之谊毁于一旦。我当时正准备从纽约州搬到加州，本来是想到了加州再注册
新语丝的，一看不能再拖下去了，就在2月份提前在纽约州将新语丝登记成了非营利
性组织，正式名称为“新语丝中国文化社”。4月份古平、阿飞和我做为建社理事在
古平家开了建社会议，我由“联系人”变成了名正言顺的“社长”，古平为副社长兼
司库，阿飞为秘书长，三个人分摊了法律规定必备的“官员”。那几名被拉拢的编辑
便退出新语丝去为那家网络公司办了一份新杂志《国风》。
五、成员
新语丝的核心成员，是编辑部的十一名编辑，除了我，还有（按加入顺序）古平、
阿飞、赋格、虎子、亦歌、唐郎、杏儿、一华、笨狸、应帆。除了虎子出生台湾，其
他人都在中国大陆出生。唐郎、一华、笨狸人在国内，其他人都在美国。古平是新语
丝的首批编辑之一，目前是掌握财政大权的副社长。杏儿是管技术的副社长，和东风
不败和时空一起为新语丝提供技术支持，保证服务器的正常运转。东风不败和时空是
中文网最老的一批网人，当年我在ACT上的战友。
新语丝在非正式时期，其成员之间是朋友关系。但是，如在新语丝以及其他网络
刊物历史上已发生过的，一度很亲密的朋友是可以因种种原因而反目成仇的。在目前
的新语丝成员之间，是较为单纯的、公事公办的同事关系，没有小团体意识，也不夹
杂个人感情，我想这是一个机构成熟的标志。当然，趣味相投的同事也可以成为朋友。
新语丝的成员都是不领报酬的义务人员。在互联网已完全商业化的今天，这种从
互联网非商业化时代遗留下来的、不抱经济动机的网站已越来越少。
有一些作者长期为新语丝撰稿，甚至在网上只为新语丝一家撰稿，比如百合、阿
待、司静等人。在我的心目中，也以新语丝的成员待之。其中百合是新语丝最长期的
作者，从创刊到现在，持续不断。
六、特色
“不谈政治”是《新语丝》创办时就定下的办刊方针。这倒不是担心因为谈政治
会带来麻烦，当时还根本没想到以后《新语丝》会到国内发展。原因是我觉得谈政治
太无趣，谁都可以高谈阔论，而且因为各位编辑的政治观点不同，不容易协调。因此
我们给《新语丝》杂志的定位是“文化刊物”。
《新语丝》杂志的校对、排版质量完全可以跟专业文学杂志媲美，这在以错字连
篇、格式错乱出名的网络刊物中是极其罕见的。每一期《新语丝》的出版，都经过了
三轮的校对：由责任编辑初校，校对再校，在送上网之前我又给校一次。《新语丝》
创办六年半以来，每一期正刊都按时出版，从未拖延，这在网络刊物中也是少见的。
每一种文学刊物，都会逐渐形成自己的风格。《新语丝》创刊时决定不设主编，
而轮流担任责任编辑，其用意，是想使风格多样化。我们不以传统的卫道士自居，也
不标榜自己的先锋性，重内容甚于形式，但是这样一来，却无形中形成了一种清新自
然、言之有物的文风。
七、影响
新语丝在海外的读者，以来自中国大陆的留学人员为主，特别是从事理工方面的
工作的。在国内的读者，则以文化界人士为主，特别是从事文史方面的工作的。这是
一个相当有趣的对比。国内读者的比例是从无到有、从少到多逐渐增加的，目前大约
占总读者的一半。
被与新语丝联系在一起的影响最大的一件事，应是去年五月份开始率先批判法轮
功。不过这其实是我个人的行为，事实上大部分新语丝的成员都从未参与。当时访问
新语丝网站的人次，每天达到了四十万。许多在新语丝网站首发的批判文章、揭露材
料，都被国内媒体转载。
但是从去年七月份开始，不知因为什么原因，除了科教网的用户，国内的用户已
无法直接访问新语丝网站，至今仍然如此。为此我们另外开了一个新语丝国内版网站，
删除了一部分也许不适合国内情况的材料。但是这样一来，因为没法知道有多少国内
用户是通过代理服务器继续访问新语丝海外版的，就无法统计究竟有多少人访问新语
丝了。
八、走向
新语丝文库做为最早的中文电子文库之一，如何处理作品的版权问题，备受关注。
为了避免版权纠纷，更为了表明我们支持作者维护版权的诚意，为各中文电子文库带
个好头，从1999年1月1日起，只有在获得作者本人授权后，我们才会新加入当代作家
的书籍。据我所知，即使是中文商业网站，也没有象新语丝这样注意版权问题。
新语丝网站最初用的是学校的机器，因此不需要经费，也就没想过要有收入。但
是随着新语丝网站的流量越来越多，对服务器、线路的要求越来越高，新语丝只能独
立出来，也就需要寻找经济来源。1998年起，在热心读者的赞助下，新语丝拥有了自
己的服务器，并通过刊登赞助广告的形式获得了稳定的收入。在支付运行费用后，仍
有剩余，因此从今年开始，对发表在《新语丝》杂志上的原创稿件，我们都将支付一
定的稿酬，这可能是第一家网络杂志这么做的。我们今年年初通过读者投票的方式，
评出了1999年度10篇优秀作品，每篇发给两百美元的奖金。以后我们每年都会评选一
次上一年的优秀作品并发给奖金。
图书、报刊纷纷上网，网上作品纷纷被纸质报刊采用、结集出版，这种网下、网
上的互动，是近来中文网络的一个趋势。我们已在今年年初出版了一本新语丝文集
（《网路新语丝》，河北人民出版社），并计划以后每年能够出版一本新语丝年度文
集。
当初创办《新语丝》，只是兴之所致，偶一为之，若能有三、两年的寿命，便算
大功告成，绝不会想到过了六年多，她还存在并发展壮大，更未想到我现在还参与其
中。但看现在的趋势，《新语丝》是会长期生存下去的，而在一说办网站就会被人当
成是在淘金的今天，这份从互联网的非功利时期遗留下来的理想主义色彩浓厚的独特
刊物，在经历了六年多的风风雨雨之后，自还有其存在的价值。
2000.8.8.
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国骂补论
关于国骂之源，鲁老爷子已有精彩论证，《论“他妈的”》。中国人所重者，一是
血统，二是贞节，国骂之发生，即是直接重击此二者，因此一上来就直奔一个中心而
去，绝不逡巡游移，四处乱转。证据是都下比较直白的骂法，是后面还要加上那个阴性
专有名词。
古代中国还是南风盛行的国度，故此男性的“贞节”也在维护之列，旧书上说明清
时代明令禁止男性“失身”者参加科考，否则一经发现，打死勿论。故此京骂中－－不
知道别处如何－－连对方的男性亲属（通常是长辈）也不放过。
由此可知，所谓“这个国骂不如我们想象的下流，大约只是‘他妈的’养的意思”
等云云，殆仁恕者揣测之辞，中国话里没有这样的缩略法，如果说是引深，也太深文了
罢。要知道，这个短语用于撒泼撕破脸、打滚骂大街，哪来那么多和风细雨、温良恭俭
让？
自然，蔽国国骂包罗万象，在“＊＊养的”上做文章的骂法也有，例如京骂中的
“丫”，－－“丫挺的”的缩略，即“丫头养的”的讹读，这应该是大户人家争嫡庶的
产物，与劳苦大众不大相干了罢？
庾荷芝
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Very interesting, I wish we had things like that at home.
Everything seems to be in right order according to their probability. That
is, more number of cakes for easier combinations. However, from a
probability point of view, it seems to me that No. 3 (进士) is harder to
get than No. 4 (三红). Is it possible that you have mixed up the order or
it has been wrong all the time.
Nonetheless, it is an interesting tradition to have.
－－万精油－－
On 11 Sep 2000, Old Eastern Evil wrote:
> 下面列出规则. 比如说第一行, 表明六个骰子里有且只有一个
> 四的话, 那中的就是秀才, 可以拿一个秀才饼; 一盒会饼里一
> 共有32个秀才饼.
>
> 秀才 32 一个四
> 举人 16 两个四
> 进士 8 有四个除四以外一样的点数, 比如四个五.
> 三红 4 三个四
> 对长 2 一二三四五六
> 状元 1 状元 - 四个四
> 五子 - 五个除四以外一样的点数, 比如五个三.
> 五皇 - 五个四
> 状元插金花 - 四个四带两个一
> 满堂红 * 六个四
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Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 0:12:59 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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At 00-9-11 0:41:00, Old Eastern Evil wrote:
>下面列出规则. 比如说第一行, 表明六个骰子里有且只有一个
>四的话, 那中的就是秀才, 可以拿一个秀才饼; 一盒会饼里一
>共有32个秀才饼.
>
>秀才 32 一个四
(6*5^5)/(6^6)=0.4019
>举人 16 两个四
(15*5^4)/(6^6)=0.2009
>进士 8 有四个除四以外一样的点数, 比如四个五.
(5*15*5^2)/(6^6)=0.0402（概率比“三红”小！）
>三红 4 三个四
(20*5^3)/(6^6)=0.0536
>对长 2 一二三四五六
720/(6^6)=0.0154
>状元 1 状元 - 四个四
(15*5^2)/(6^6)=0.00804
> 五子 - 五个除四以外一样的点数, 比如五个三.
(5*30)/(6^6)=0.00322
> 五皇 - 五个四
30/(6^6)=0.000643
> 状元插金花 - 四个四带两个一
15/(6^6)=0.000322
>满堂红 * 六个四
>
1/(6^6)=0.0000214
一华——祝大伙中秋节愉快！
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On Mon, 11 Sep 2000, Zhiping You wrote:
> Everything seems to be in right order according to their probability. That
> is, more number of cakes for easier combinations. However, from a
> probability point of view, it seems to me that No. 3 (进士) is harder to
> get than No. 4 (三红). Is it possible that you have mixed up the order or
> it has been wrong all the time.
>
Now, after reading it carefully, I think it may be correct to put 进士
infront of 三红, despite the fact that the later has higher probability.
The reason is for 进士 (i.e. Four of something other than 4), you also get
a chance to get one 4 or two 4's, and thus get other cakes.
－－万精油－－
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中秋节快乐！
老东邪出了个好帖子。博饼这个游戏我是第一次听说，很有趣。
就是有点复杂。说起博来，还是打麻将的比较多。：）
周末常与父母一起打麻将，我是极不喜欢打麻将的，为了尽孝
心，再不喜欢也得上阵。我们打的是最简单的打法，就是推倒
和，许碰不许吃。我父母以前打惯了算番的麻将，打我们这种
简单的，刚开始时有点不适应，因为他们老想做大的，比如清
一色和七对。赌资方面，我们打的是卫生麻将，一次一元钱，
自摸、七对、清一色、杠上花加倍。我父母颇有微词，认为七
对是大牌，应该多赔。问题是，七对赔多少才算合适？各位数
学高手能不能帮着算算。
这个问题有点难，我自己曾想算，但老觉得怎么算都有漏洞，
无从算起，就象围棋的赔子问题，到底赔多少才合适，是没法
算的。没法算的东西只有靠约定俗成，围棋赔子就是这样，但
也不合理。最合理的办法就是模仿桥牌的叫牌，搞叫子，4目起
叫，每叫加3/4目，谁叫得多谁持黑。
螳螂
在 00-9-12 0:12:00 Zhou Yihua写道：
>
>>进士 8 有四个除四以外一样的点数, 比如四个五.
>
>(5*15*5^2)/(6^6)=0.0402（概率比“三红”小！）
>
>>三红 4 三个四
>
>(20*5^3)/(6^6)=0.0536
>
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From fang@xys.org Mon Sep 11 23:07:29 2000 -0700
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 国骂的阶层
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>是何键吧？杀了杨开慧的那个。
>
>虎子
要是何应钦没有在湖南任过职的话，那就应该是
何健了，不过有关党国的人物，总归是虎子熟悉：－）
现在已是国内的中秋了，哪位在国内的敲个帖子
上来，让俺们也馋上一馋？
现在的月饼都是广式月饼，最没吃头。俺印象最
深的还是那种老式的玫瑰白糖月饼，现在一想起
来还流口水，刚给家里打了电话，我妈说现在已
没人吃那种月饼了，大概只有农民工之间互相送
礼才用。俺听了一阵唏嘘，这么好的东西怎么就
没人吃了呢！俺跑遍了整个唐人街也没见买那种
月饼的。杭州最有名的要数榨菜鲜肉月饼，只能
趁新鲜吃，那滋味，真是ＴＭＤ，绝啦：－）
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Subject: [xys_friends] Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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Date: Sep 12 2000 00:39:50 EDT
From: Donghua Xu <xudh@excite.com>
Subject:[xys_friends]=?iso-8859-1?Q?Re:_[xys=5Ffriends]_=D6=D0=C7=EF=B6=C4=B1=FD_?=
最近netscape的email帐号老出问题, 先改用excite的帐号应付一阵.
万精油和一华都说得对, 俺自己很久以前也注意到过"进士"的概率比
"三红"要小, 不过时间长了没人提这茬, 俺就给忘了...:)
万精油又指出"进士"可以兼得"秀才"或"举人", 而"三红"就不能兼得
其他东西, 所以进士饼做得小一些. 这个俺倒没考虑过, 有意思. 不
过八个进士饼也还是太多了点, 呵呵.
其实厦门人中秋一般要博两次饼, 单位或学校一次, 家里一次. 在家
里不好瞎闹; 在外头就不一样了, 通常还要加上一些更有刺激性的规
矩. 比如关于抢饼的规矩, 秀才和举人的饼是小饼, 拿到就可以吃,
没有人管; 但进士以上的饼拿到以后必须放在面前, 不能马上就吃.
然后比如说四个三红饼各有归属了, 但游戏还没完的时候, 又有人博
到三红, 就可把右手边数过去第一个三红饼抢过来. 这样你面前放着
的稍大一些的饼没有一个是保险的, 说不定什么时候就被人抢走了.
正是因为三红的概率其实不小, 抢饼过程中流动最快, 被抢得最多的
往往就是三红饼. 又因为三红饼其实是最好吃的饼, 抢起来也就格外
刺激. :)
以前也有些单位是用实物代替会饼来当博饼的奖品, 比如状元是一套
音响, 对长是自行车, 等等, 那是另外一种物欲上的刺激了, 不知现
在还有没有单位搞这一套.
--老东邪
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: [xys_friends] 月亮上的故事
Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 06:11:25 GMT
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
大家中秋快乐!
蟾蜍，英俊青蛙王子魔法出了事故。
大树，无尽的生长来自无尽的孤独。
玉兔，逃这远是害怕被狗熊擦屁股。
嫦娥，网上美女般地让人想看清楚。
吴刚，这个世界永远是男人在辛苦。
windover（筋斗云）
windover@hotmail.com
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From: "minghy minghy" <mudhuy@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: [xys_friends] 明月来相照
Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 16:46:29 CST
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>From: yige <yige@mediaone.net>
>Reply-To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
>To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
>Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 国骂的阶层
>Date: Mon, 11 Sep 2000 20:53:18 -0700
>
>现在已是国内的中秋了，哪位在国内的敲个帖子
>上来，让俺们也馋上一馋？
>
>现在的月饼都是广式月饼，最没吃头。俺印象最
>深的还是那种老式的玫瑰白糖月饼，现在一想起
>来还流口水，刚给家里打了电话，我妈说现在已
>没人吃那种月饼了，大概只有农民工之间互相送
>礼才用。俺听了一阵唏嘘，这么好的东西怎么就
>没人吃了呢！俺跑遍了整个唐人街也没见买那种
>月饼的。杭州最有名的要数榨菜鲜肉月饼，只能
>趁新鲜吃，那滋味，真是ＴＭＤ，绝啦：－）
其实我是不大爱吃傻大个儿的月饼的，可您说的那种鲜肉
月饼我最近常看人提起，真是无从想象！可惜啊可惜，人
不在苏杭
现在广式月饼我看都是讲究包装，昨天刚拿了盒白天鹅的,
盒子做成有趣的笔记本模样，里面的月饼又是小个头的，
不知是不是全都是蛋黄馅儿的。其实，蛋黄馅儿就好吃吗？
这个盒子还是远不如我去年的另外两个月饼盒漂亮，其中
一个做成小房子的模样，古色古香的，很舍不得扔，终于
被我用来放小杂物了，我看我还真有点象是买椟还珠：）
下午提前下班，办公室转眼就快空了，居然真有点儿过节
的气氛了。
向所有吃到和没吃到月饼的朋友问好！
泥
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Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 02:21:57 -0700
To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 明月来相照
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 04:46 PM 9/12/00 -0600, you wrote:
>其实我是不大爱吃傻大个儿的月饼的，可您说的那种鲜肉
>月饼我最近常看人提起，真是无从想象！可惜啊可惜，人
>不在苏杭
现在去苏州也未必能买到苏式月饼。98年中秋前夕我路过苏州，
满街卖的都是广式月饼，也有当街煎烤的，大概就是这种鲜
肉月饼。买了一盒“水月楼”（？）的月饼，回来打开一看，
还是广式的，带回家没人愿意吃，塞冰箱冻起来了。
我老家的月饼倒都是苏式的，不过因为好吃不好看，也就只能
自己吃了。送人的都是广式的，好看不好吃。问题就在这，现
在的月饼主要是当礼品，而不是当食品卖的。
方舟子
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Subject: [xys_friends] =?gb2312?B?UmU6IFt4eXNfZnJpZW5kc10gUmU6IFt4eXNfZnJpZW5kc10g1tDH77bEsf0=?=
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
说到月饼，想到七、八年前帮助举办的二次汉式月饼展。
大家觉得莲蓉的好，有的还是双黄，连皮带馅都软，放
两天也不脱水。
可惜在这里是什么都吃不到了。就祝大家中秋好，吃得
到的多吃点，吃不到的多回味回味吧。
泽熙
----- Original Message -----
From: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Sent: Monday, September 11, 2000 11:00 PM
Subject: [xys_friends] Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> Date: Sep 12 2000 00:39:50 EDT
> From: Donghua Xu <xudh@excite.com>
>
Subject:[xys_friends]=?iso-8859-1?Q?Re:_[xys=5Ffriends]_=D6=D0=C7=EF=B6=C4=B
1=FD_?=
>
>
>
> 最近netscape的email帐号老出问题, 先改用excite的帐号应付一阵.
>
> 万精油和一华都说得对, 俺自己很久以前也注意到过"进士"的概率比
> "三红"要小, 不过时间长了没人提这茬, 俺就给忘了...:)
>
> 万精油又指出"进士"可以兼得"秀才"或"举人", 而"三红"就不能兼得
> 其他东西, 所以进士饼做得小一些. 这个俺倒没考虑过, 有意思. 不
> 过八个进士饼也还是太多了点, 呵呵.
>
> 其实厦门人中秋一般要博两次饼, 单位或学校一次, 家里一次. 在家
> 里不好瞎闹; 在外头就不一样了, 通常还要加上一些更有刺激性的规
> 矩. 比如关于抢饼的规矩, 秀才和举人的饼是小饼, 拿到就可以吃,
> 没有人管; 但进士以上的饼拿到以后必须放在面前, 不能马上就吃.
> 然后比如说四个三红饼各有归属了, 但游戏还没完的时候, 又有人博
> 到三红, 就可把右手边数过去第一个三红饼抢过来. 这样你面前放着
> 的稍大一些的饼没有一个是保险的, 说不定什么时候就被人抢走了.
>
> 正是因为三红的概率其实不小, 抢饼过程中流动最快, 被抢得最多的
> 往往就是三红饼. 又因为三红饼其实是最好吃的饼, 抢起来也就格外
> 刺激. :)
>
> 以前也有些单位是用实物代替会饼来当博饼的奖品, 比如状元是一套
> 音响, 对长是自行车, 等等, 那是另外一种物欲上的刺激了, 不知现
> 在还有没有单位搞这一套.
>
>
>
> --老东邪
>
>
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Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 09:12:36 -0400 (EDT)
From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
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Subject: [xys_friends] =?X-UNKNOWN?Q?Re=3A_=5Bxys=5Ffriends=5D_=C3=F7=D4=C2=C0=B4=CF=E0=D5?=
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
On Tue, 12 Sep 2000, Shi-min Fang wrote:
> 我老家的月饼倒都是苏式的，不过因为好吃不好看，也就只能
> 自己吃了。送人的都是广式的，好看不好吃。问题就在这，现
> 在的月饼主要是当礼品，而不是当食品卖的。
>
> 方舟子
This phenomena appears in many aspects of life, such as work, marriage
etc.
－－万精油－－, fish or bear palm? We want both.:)
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Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 22:1:11 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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At 00-9-12 8:43:00, tanglang wrote:
>和，许碰不许吃。我父母以前打惯了算番的麻将，打我们这种
>简单的，刚开始时有点不适应，因为他们老想做大的，比如清
>一色和七对。赌资方面，我们打的是卫生麻将，一次一元钱，
>自摸、七对、清一色、杠上花加倍。我父母颇有微词，认为七
>对是大牌，应该多赔。问题是，七对赔多少才算合适？各位数
>学高手能不能帮着算算。
>
你父母是对的。自摸加倍即可，清一色可加倍可三倍，七对应该
算三倍。至于杠花，如果开杠不算杠钱的话，可加倍可三倍，而
如果算杠钱的花，听着杠花没能和牌则损失杠钱，机会成本增加，
因此得按三倍论。麻将赔率恐怕不可能精确计算，因为不是纯粹
概率问题，而是一种博弈，与策略有关。比如“七对”，如果在
抓牌前你就宣布非七对不和，那和牌概率非常小，赔十倍都不过
分。而通常人们做大牌都是顺势做的，即牌上得好就做，不好还
可改和别的，这分明是机会主义，从而降低了机会成本，因此不
宜多赔。以前在北京打麻将，七对和杠花如果加倍的话通常没人
愿做，三倍比较合适，这只是凭经验定的。如果在其它地方，规
则和打牌风格不同，可能会定得不一样。
>这个问题有点难，我自己曾想算，但老觉得怎么算都有漏洞，
>无从算起，就象围棋的赔子问题，到底赔多少才合适，是没法
>算的。没法算的东西只有靠约定俗成，围棋赔子就是这样，但
>也不合理。最合理的办法就是模仿桥牌的叫牌，搞叫子，4目起
>叫，每叫加3/4目，谁叫得多谁持黑。
>
这个问题最好请万教授来谈，我感觉围棋贴子也无法精确计算，
凭经验。而且随着围棋技术的进步得不断修改。
一华
>螳螂
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re:_[xys_friends]_中秋赌饼
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At 00-9-11 14:21:00, Zhiping You wrote:
>Now, after reading it carefully, I think it may be correct to put 进士
>infront of 三红, despite the fact that the later has higher probability.
>The reason is for 进士 (i.e. Four of something other than 4), you also get
>a chance to get one 4 or two 4's, and thus get other cakes.
>
>－－万精油－－
>
我也想到这点，因此才算了一下概率，结果发现“进士”和
“三红”概率相差不多，觉得没理由故意倒过来。如果为了
让大家有机会抢“状元”，则大可把“举人”和“进士”倒
换一下。
一华
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
方舟子老家的月饼还真很好吃。那次他回美国是从上海出境
的，特地带了好多月饼送给我。
客观地说，苏式和广式各有特色，都很好吃。我们小时候苏
式的多，又便宜，因此就特别爱吃广式的，而现在广式的吃
多了，就又觉得苏式好吃了。还有种潮式月饼很好吃，最有
名的一种叫“老婆饼”，我从小就吃，但至今不知有何典故，
谁给说说？
最无赖的是现在有些月饼做成方的，还有的是冰淇淋馅。大
伙给评评理，那还能算月饼吗？：）
亦歌，湖南省主席肯定是何键。你号召贴个月饼帖子，我翻
出四年前中秋节给一个台湾MM的妹儿，其中有段谈月饼的，
贴在下面：
现在大都吃油皮月饼,这儿叫"广式月饼",我最喜欢的是豆沙和莲蓉馅. 在
上海上了年记的人还保留著吃"苏式月饼"(一种酥皮月饼)的传统,一到中秋,少
不了吃上几块"功德林"或"玉佛寺"的净素月饼,颇带著几分虔诚,就象基督徒吃
圣饼似的, 当然这中国人的口福是基督徒无法企及的(圣饼我没吃过,但我能想
象嚼一张干巴巴的纸是什么滋味). 记得我祖父在世时,最喜欢吃"功德林"的苔
条月饼(一种海苔做的馅).年轻人则不太爱吃苏式月饼. 还有一种"潮式月饼",
与"苏式月饼"类似,但皮很油,因而并不很酥,这种月饼有个很有意思的雅号,叫
"老婆饼",非常好吃.在江南,最有特色的是肉月饼,酥皮的,但却是肉馅,男女老
少都爱吃.中秋期间,许多食品店临街摆开电烤炉,现烤现卖,因为只有趁热才好
吃.于是你会看到街上有不少人边走边吃著什么,构成中秋节的一道绝好的风景
线.
一华
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Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1998 0:22:39 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-12 22:01:00 Zhou Yihua写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>At 00-9-12 8:43:00, tanglang wrote:
>>和，许碰不许吃。我父母以前打惯了算番的麻将，打我们这种
>>简单的，刚开始时有点不适应，因为他们老想做大的，比如清
>>一色和七对。赌资方面，我们打的是卫生麻将，一次一元钱，
>>自摸、七对、清一色、杠上花加倍。我父母颇有微词，认为七
>>对是大牌，应该多赔。问题是，七对赔多少才算合适？各位数
>>学高手能不能帮着算算。
>>
>你父母是对的。自摸加倍即可，清一色可加倍可三倍，七对应该
>算三倍。至于杠花，如果开杠不算杠钱的话，可加倍可三倍，而
>如果算杠钱的花，听着杠花没能和牌则损失杠钱，机会成本增加，
>因此得按三倍论。麻将赔率恐怕不可能精确计算，因为不是纯粹
>概率问题，而是一种博弈，与策略有关。比如“七对”，如果在
>抓牌前你就宣布非七对不和，那和牌概率非常小，赔十倍都不过
>分。而通常人们做大牌都是顺势做的，即牌上得好就做，不好还
>可改和别的，这分明是机会主义，从而降低了机会成本，因此不
>宜多赔。以前在北京打麻将，七对和杠花如果加倍的话通常没人
>愿做，三倍比较合适，这只是凭经验定的。如果在其它地方，规
>则和打牌风格不同，可能会定得不一样。
关键是没有“理论说明”，到底应该赔多少。：）我以前
算的时候，曾想着把这个问题简化，看这样算行不行？就
是按天和的算法。一上手就屁和和一上手就七对的概率应
该是不一样的，这个计算法有可行性，但我一列式子，头
马上就大了，算不过来。
另外还有个简化法，就是起摸一上手就有四对，这时候打
七对的成功率高呢，还是瞎碰小和的成功率高？肯定是碰
了和胜率高，但七对如果赔的高，我也要打的。平时打牌
老要为这个犯难，因为四对在手是个分水岭，起摸低于四
对我是坚决不打七对的，赔十我都不打。可四对在手时赔
多少才合适？（假定决心已下！）
这两个简化是不是能归为概率问题？
麻将里也有科学。：）一华算好了，可以写篇论文投给
《科学》的业余数学家专栏，这个专栏我是必看的，尽管
大多数情况下看不懂。
螳螂
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Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1998 0:23:0 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Re: [xys_friends] =C3=F7=D4=C2=C0=B4=CF=E0=D5=D5?=
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>>现在已是国内的中秋了，哪位在国内的敲个帖子
>>上来，让俺们也馋上一馋？
我们这边基本上没有什么过节的气氛，横竖看不到月亮，
索性不过了。在内地，中秋是被淡化得最彻底的重要传
统节日，报纸的副刊上有气无力的提了两句，也无非是
念旧和典故的堆砌。街头的商家在忙着大减价，买一送
一，与情人节时玫瑰的暴涨恰为对照。
几乎见不到有人买月饼来吃，买月饼的都是送礼的。单
位里发了价值60元的月饼票，在指定的商店换了几块月
饼回来，权当早饭。妻子的单位还另外发了盒价值百多
元的月饼，我尝了一小块，怪怪的味道，不忍再尝。除
了广式的月饼，未见其他种类，给人的错觉是现在只有
广东还在做月饼。
早些年，中秋的月饼不是不曾挣扎过，本地的报纸电视
曾渲染过8888元的极品，以及各种产地月饼的品尝辨味。
终究因为文化和习俗断裂的太久，又未能找到新的卖点，
而渐渐不为商家所重视。现在的中国，没有市场也意味
着没有文化肯去依附，所以，少有提及也是正常。此乃
恶性循环，也许过不了多少年，中秋只在字典里了。
那时的字典，会说什么呢？中秋的月饼是为了纪念一次
造反？我们的后代会为了纪念古代的造反来吃上它一回
吗？
或者，这是送礼的又一次机会，不容错过，因而值得长存。
螳螂
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Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2000 0:26:42 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
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Subject: Re: Re: [xys_friends] 明月来相照
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At 98-9-13 0:23:00, tanglang wrote:
>我们这边基本上没有什么过节的气氛，横竖看不到月亮，
>索性不过了。在内地，中秋是被淡化得最彻底的重要传
>统节日，报纸的副刊上有气无力的提了两句，也无非是
>念旧和典故的堆砌。街头的商家在忙着大减价，买一送
>一，与情人节时玫瑰的暴涨恰为对照。
>
螳螂应该知道香港中秋次日休息一天，因此今天晚上非常热闹，
都半夜12点了，还满大街的人，小孩打着灯笼，过节气氛很浓。
什么时候内地也这样顶一天假期就好了。
一华
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Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2000 0:56:23 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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At 98-9-13 0:22:00, tanglang wrote:
>关键是没有“理论说明”，到底应该赔多少。：）我以前
>算的时候，曾想着把这个问题简化，看这样算行不行？就
>是按天和的算法。一上手就屁和和一上手就七对的概率应
>该是不一样的，这个计算法有可行性，但我一列式子，头
>马上就大了，算不过来。
>
这天和理论上是能算出概率的，但我也头大。万教授能否给
表演一把？
>另外还有个简化法，就是起摸一上手就有四对，这时候打
>七对的成功率高呢，还是瞎碰小和的成功率高？肯定是碰
>了和胜率高，但七对如果赔的高，我也要打的。平时打牌
>老要为这个犯难，因为四对在手是个分水岭，起摸低于四
>对我是坚决不打七对的，赔十我都不打。可四对在手时赔
>多少才合适？（假定决心已下！）
>
这个没法算。只要一开打，就得讲策略，得随机应变，情况
非常复杂，与别人怎么打有关。比如七对听什么牌就很讲究。
通常听熟牌，只要不是绝牌。但如果别人判断出你听七对，
则对熟牌也会很谨慎，这样你很难和。听的时间一长，点炮
可能性也大增。这概率可怎么算？
>这两个简化是不是能归为概率问题？
>
>麻将里也有科学。：）一华算好了，可以写篇论文投给
>《科学》的业余数学家专栏，这个专栏我是必看的，尽管
>大多数情况下看不懂。
>
麻将书很多，人家注重讲策略而不是算概率，对概率只需估算。
一华
>
>螳螂
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Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 14:15:05 -0700
To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 10:01 PM 9/12/00 +0800, you wrote:
>你父母是对的。自摸加倍即可，清一色可加倍可三倍，七对应该
>算三倍。至于杠花，如果开杠不算杠钱的话，可加倍可三倍，而
>如果算杠钱的花，听着杠花没能和牌则损失杠钱，机会成本增加，
>因此得按三倍论。麻将赔率恐怕不可能精确计算，因为不是纯粹
>概率问题，而是一种博弈，与策略有关。比如“七对”，如果在
>抓牌前你就宣布非七对不和，那和牌概率非常小，赔十倍都不过
>分。而通常人们做大牌都是顺势做的，即牌上得好就做，不好还
>可改和别的，这分明是机会主义，从而降低了机会成本，因此不
>宜多赔。以前在北京打麻将，七对和杠花如果加倍的话通常没人
>愿做，三倍比较合适，这只是凭经验定的。如果在其它地方，规
>则和打牌风格不同，可能会定得不一样。
哪有抓牌前就宣布非什么不和的？那样的话做什么牌的概率都小得
不得了。
其实七对和十三不靠一样，都是在抓到畸形牌很难用通常的和法的
情况下，一种变通方法，人家允许你那么和就不错了，还敢要加倍？
如果考虑到七对和十三不靠都不能吃不能碰，加倍奖励也算是说
得过去的。我们那里的打法，就有不加倍，也有加倍的。加三倍的
则从来没有听说过。
方舟子
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2000 15:11:18 +0800
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> >你父母是对的。自摸加倍即可，清一色可加倍可三倍，七对应该
> >算三倍。至于杠花，如果开杠不算杠钱的话，可加倍可三倍，而
> >如果算杠钱的花，听着杠花没能和牌则损失杠钱，机会成本增加，
> >因此得按三倍论。麻将赔率恐怕不可能精确计算，因为不是纯粹
> >概率问题，而是一种博弈，与策略有关。比如“七对”，如果在
> >抓牌前你就宣布非七对不和，那和牌概率非常小，赔十倍都不过
> >分。而通常人们做大牌都是顺势做的，即牌上得好就做，不好还
> >可改和别的，这分明是机会主义，从而降低了机会成本，因此不
> >宜多赔。以前在北京打麻将，七对和杠花如果加倍的话通常没人
> >愿做，三倍比较合适，这只是凭经验定的。如果在其它地方，规
> >则和打牌风格不同，可能会定得不一样。
>
> 哪有抓牌前就宣布非什么不和的？那样的话做什么牌的概率都小得
> 不得了。
> 其实七对和十三不靠一样，都是在抓到畸形牌很难用通常的和法的
> 情况下，一种变通方法，人家允许你那么和就不错了，还敢要加倍？
> 如果考虑到七对和十三不靠都不能吃不能碰，加倍奖励也算是说
> 得过去的。我们那里的打法，就有不加倍，也有加倍的。加三倍的
> 则从来没有听说过。
>
> 方舟子
>
我倒是玩过事先约好了非什么不和的麻将，不过是在电脑游戏里。如果
你和了的话，会赢很多，只看见自己的钱数刷刷的往上翻。很带劲啊！
我们这里的麻将，七对和十三不靠清混一色之类的大牌都是不加倍的，
鼓励大家赶快和牌，但是自摸加倍。其实也不叫加倍，而叫翻番，如
果你是杠开的话，可以翻两番，就是四倍。
不过自摸加倍是不是合理？自摸本来已经收了三个人的钱，还要再加倍，
同样的牌，往往会比七对之类的收益率还要高，也许因为这个规矩，就没
有人去做大牌了。
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
你们好。
我一直以来只是阅读大家的文章，自己向来都不会
留言。这几天看到大家谈论月饼，忍不住也想说说
自己的感想。
在马来西亚，这里最流行的大概就是各位所说的
广东式了，好像一直以来都是如此。可能是因为
这里的福建、广东后裔比较多吧。
几年前“冰皮月饼”曾经流行一时，其实就是
用糯米做的皮，然后放进冰箱里冷冻后再拿来
吃，没什么特别，不晓得在中国大陆是否能吃到
这种月饼？
最近，这里不止有冰淇淋馅的月饼，还有所谓的“水果月饼”。
至于传统的广式月饼，馅料则是千变万化，甚至还有人将
什么黑龙江豆粉、“螺旋藻”等加入莲蓉做成月饼。
江苏的榨菜鲜肉月饼好像很特别，请问在中国大陆以外
的地方能买到吗？好像尝尝，虽然今年的中秋已经过去了。
Zhou Yihua 写到:
>
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 方舟子老家的月饼还真很好吃。那次他回美国是从上海出境
> 的，特地带了好多月饼送给我。
>
> 客观地说，苏式和广式各有特色，都很好吃。我们小时候苏
> 式的多，又便宜，因此就特别爱吃广式的，而现在广式的吃
> 多了，就又觉得苏式好吃了。还有种潮式月饼很好吃，最有
> 名的一种叫“老婆饼”，我从小就吃，但至今不知有何典故，
> 谁给说说？
>
> 最无赖的是现在有些月饼做成方的，还有的是冰淇淋馅。大
> 伙给评评理，那还能算月饼吗？：）
>
> 亦歌，鲜≈飨隙ㄊ呛渭Ｄ愫耪偬鲈卤樱曳�
> 出四年前中秋节给一个台湾MM的妹儿，其中有段谈月饼的，
> 贴在下面：
>
> 现在大都吃油皮月饼,这儿叫"广式月饼",我最喜欢的是豆沙和莲蓉馅. 在
> 上海上了年记的人还保留著吃"苏式月饼"(一种酥皮月饼)的传统,一到中秋,少
> 不了吃上几块"功德林"或"玉佛寺"的净素月饼,颇带著几分虔诚,就象基督徒吃
> 圣饼似的, 当然这中国人的口福是基督徒无法企及的(圣饼我没吃过,但我能想
> 象嚼一张干巴巴的纸是什么滋味). 记得我祖父在世时,最喜欢吃"功德林"的苔
> 条月饼(一种海苔做的馅).年轻人则不太爱吃苏式月饼. 还有一种"潮式月饼",
> 与"苏式月饼"类似,但皮很油,因而并不很酥,这种月饼有个很有意思的雅号,叫
> "老婆饼",非常好吃.在江南,最有特色的是肉月饼,酥皮的,但却是肉馅,男女老
> 少都爱吃.中秋期间,许多食品店临街摆开电烤炉,现烤现卖,因为只有趁热才好
> 吃.于是你会看到街上有不少人边走边吃著什么,构成中秋节的一道绝好的风景
> 线.
>
> 一华
>
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From fang@xys.org Wed Sep 13 15:49:11 2000 -0700
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Date: Thu, 14 Sep 2000 1:27:32 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 中秋赌饼
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At 00-9-12 14:15:00, Shi-min Fang wrote:
>哪有抓牌前就宣布非什么不和的？那样的话做什么牌的概率都小得
>不得了。
我也没见过有这么玩的，只是假设。
>其实七对和十三不靠一样，都是在抓到畸形牌很难用通常的和法的
>情况下，一种变通方法，人家允许你那么和就不错了，还敢要加倍？
>如果考虑到七对和十三不靠都不能吃不能碰，加倍奖励也算是说
>得过去的。我们那里的打法，就有不加倍，也有加倍的。加三倍的
>则从来没有听说过。
>
这就是我说的打麻将与策略、风格有关，没法算概率的原因。
比如我见到的很多人如螳螂所说，上了四对就死心塌地做七对，
甚至三对时就会养上几圈，这种情况下如果不给个三倍的奖励，
就会挫伤积极性，就像少君说的没人愿意做大牌了。七对和十
三不靠不同，并非畸形牌，除非上了六对没办法，即使上了五
对，碰三下和对倒也是非常容易的。策略和规则是相互影响的，
舟子老家不鼓励七对，可以推断，一般没有五对是不愿意做七
对的。舟子的说法对十三不靠是对的，这也是大多数地方不鼓
励十三不靠的原因，在北京我们通常规定十三不靠不让和的。
一华
>方舟子
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 明月来相照
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At 00-9-13 16:12:00, 萧悦宁 Seow Yuening wrote:
>在马来西亚，这里最流行的大概就是各位所说的
>广东式了，好像一直以来都是如此。可能是因为
>这里的福建、广东后裔比较多吧。
>
主要原因是广式月饼比较美观吧。
>几年前“冰皮月饼”曾经流行一时，其实就是
>用糯米做的皮，然后放进冰箱里冷冻后再拿来
>吃，没什么特别，不晓得在中国大陆是否能吃到
>这种月饼？
>
上海也有，但不流行。
>最近，这里不止有冰淇淋馅的月饼，还有所谓的“水果月饼”。
>至于传统的广式月饼，馅料则是千变万化，甚至还有人将
>什么黑龙江豆粉、“螺旋藻”等加入莲蓉做成月饼。
>
>江苏的榨菜鲜肉月饼好像很特别，请问在中国大陆以外
>的地方能买到吗？好像尝尝，虽然今年的中秋已经过去了。
>
能做苏式月饼就能做这种肉月饼，很简单的。你可以找一些店
家向他们提建议，也许明年中秋在马来西亚就流行肉月饼了。
泥MM想吃肉月饼就更简单了，下月初有七天长假，来上海玩，
我请你吃：）
去年“十一”还有几个也曾想来上海的，赶紧报名，今年别再
错过机会：）
一华
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From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-13 15:11:00 offender写道：
>我倒是玩过事先约好了非什么不和的麻将，不过是在电脑游戏里。如果
>你和了的话，会赢很多，只看见自己的钱数刷刷的往上翻。很带劲啊！
现实中也有，就是地和，一上手就宣布听，抓什么打什么，直到和。
>不过自摸加倍是不是合理？自摸本来已经收了三个人的钱，还要再加倍，
>同样的牌，往往会比七对之类的收益率还要高，也许因为这个规矩，就没
>有人去做大牌了。
我说错了。我们这儿自摸不加倍，是三家给钱。（相当于三倍）。
其他的都是放冲者给。
>这就是我说的打麻将与策略、风格有关，没法算概率的原因。
>比如我见到的很多人如螳螂所说，上了四对就死心塌地做七对，
>甚至三对时就会养上几圈，这种情况下如果不给个三倍的奖励，
>就会挫伤积极性，就像少君说的没人愿意做大牌了。七对和十
>三不靠不同，并非畸形牌，除非上了六对没办法，即使上了五
>对，碰三下和对倒也是非常容易的。策略和规则是相互影响的，
>舟子老家不鼓励七对，可以推断，一般没有五对是不愿意做七
>对的。舟子的说法对十三不靠是对的，这也是大多数地方不鼓
>励十三不靠的原因，在北京我们通常规定十三不靠不让和的。
>
>一华
我们老家打番牌，十三不靠算十番，很不合理。我抓着这个漏洞，
经常去和十三不靠，胜率不小。：）
打番牌有讲究，低于一定的番是不能和的，必须要有一定的花样
组合，考虑的因素要多得多，人人都想做大，流局也多。但番牌
有个弱点，就是能吃能碰，另外三方都要给付，容易发生舞弊行
为。打番牌有个最大的好处（也可以说是坏处），就是只要做了
个很大的牌，可以一下子赢很多。
打推倒和其实也可以“舞弊”的，比如，如果听得早，通常我是
不和对家（我老婆）的牌的，我父母则不管这些，老是互相和，
这样打得多了，就显出我们策略的优势来了，尽管技不如人，总
算下来，赢到手的钱总是多的。：）
螳螂
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From fang@xys.org Fri Sep 15 01:09:59 2000 -0700
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From: yige <yige@mediaone.net>
Subject: [xys_friends] 老李出来了
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见到李文和今天终于被放出来了。当初案发时，
Ｅｘｃｉｔｅ网上曾有过民意调查，一个是选
李对美国的国防造成了前所未有的伤害；而另
一个则选没有什么伤害。我当时也顺便进去看
了一下，，发现选伤害的有四千多人，而选没
伤害的只有几百人，可见当初的舆论造得有多
厉害。如今关了快一年，查来查去查不出什么
证据，只好灰溜溜放人，也就这么完了。可惜
老李无辜做了政治的牺牲品，虚惊了一场，还
丢了饭碗。只有老克为了替民主党拉华裔的选票
出来安慰了几句。政治就是这么ＴＭＤ！
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: [xys_friends] 巨骗帮文献：为什么成立一家公司？成立一个国家
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巨骗帮文献：为什么成立一家公司？成立一个国家
筋斗云（片子帮事业策划黑舵手）
钱会不会从天上掉下来？
当然会！
这就是网络世界。
一个地理面积不到三十平方公里，人口一万人左右，
直到今年才被联合国承认的小岛国图瓦鲁（Tuvalu ），
最近从天而降五千万美金（约四亿多人民币）。因为这个
国家的网络区域号码是.TV，而一家美国公司愿意以一年五
百万美金签约十年。
这是继前几年岛国汤加（tonga 区域.to）一年四百万
美金之后的另一天价。一个没有任何网络设备的海中岛国
一夜间成为全球平起平坐的二百多域名之一。
巨骗帮应该发挥帮中民众天然的智力与口才优势，派
出优秀人才游说联合国，成立一个片子国。（域名.pc 作
为Pianzi Country）
一旦第一步成功，那么钱途是无穷的，发行钞票，发行
邮票，国际长途，免税天堂，洗钱圣地，那真是全国经济在
一夜间就上了轨道。
在PC 之后，全帮还可以继续前进，.mom .dad .cat
.job .dog .you .abc .xyz .god .man .car .law
等等都将是等待开发的处女地。
网络社会就在眼前，片子帮要抓住时机。机不可失，
时不再来了。
抄：巨骗帮主，左右使，执法长老，匪帮顾问阿臭，各地堂
主。
内部发行，不得外传。
windover（筋斗云）
windover@hotmail.com
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From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: [xys_friends] 第一届“ＰＳＩ－新语丝”华人留学生网络文学奖评选启事
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
第一届“ＰＳＩ－新语丝”华人留学生网络文学奖评选启事
ＰＳＩ留学生服务公司（www.psiservice.com）和新语丝决定每年联合举办
“ＰＳＩ－新语丝”华人留学生网络文学奖评选，第一届于今年举办，规定如下：
一、参加评选的作品内容必须与海外华人留学生生活有关（包括留学准备、
留学生涯、海外定居或归国等等），体裁和篇幅不限。
二、评出优秀作品十篇，每篇奖励一千美元。
三、评委由新语丝编委组成。评委的作品不参加评奖，但可以列入专辑发表
或结集出版。
四、新创作和已在网络上发表的稿件均可参加评选。来稿将选择在《新语丝》
杂志和新语丝网站上专辑发表，并可能结集印刷出版。在《新语丝》杂志上发表
的以及结集出版的稿件另外支付稿酬。
五、中国大陆的来稿请寄xinyusi@yahoo.com，其他地区的来稿请寄
editors@xys.org。来稿可用笔名发表，但请提供作者的真实姓名和地址。
六、十一月十五日截稿。获奖名单将在《新语丝》十二月号公布。
七、本奖以后每年评选一次。
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From: "Ping Koo" <pckoo@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: [xys_friends] 柳花和她的《创世纪》
Date: Fri, 15 Sep 2000 15:29:33 GMT
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
看了柳花贴在〖读书论坛〗的《创世纪》，老夫聊发少年狂，来侃两句。
应帆兄给了个链接，去偷偷看了一下，不免有些骄傲。且慢，我骄傲从
何说起？学句胡屠户：小老的一双眼睛还是识得人的。：)
巧得是这期《新语丝》轮到我作校对。舟子兄选了柳花一篇，那格式挺
怪，校时就下了点儿工夫。化了心思，就看出些道道来了：好你个柳花，
藏哪疙瘩让舟子把你挖出来了！
从ACT上出了才女莲波，人事沉浮，还真没见几个越过莲波去的。这位柳
花不敢妄评为“越”，起码不输，伯仲之间，各有千秋。
这回儿读了《创始纪》，想起了老才子郭沫若。我是说当真才子那会儿的
郭沫若，不是后来那可爱的红萝卜。好汉羞提当年勇，这次免一免。当年，
正小公鸡引颈争鸣的当口儿，老郭译的《浮士德》，也曾细细揣摩，默默
背诵。这回儿读了《创世纪》，竟看出了些许郭才子的影子。火候且不论，
人说明了是“一稿”。好好润润，当大妙！
莲波那时为《新语丝》添花，后来不声不响走了，一直引为憾事。这次舟
子兄当的值，出刊了，得去信谢作者，联络一下，千万别撂生了，过这村
可没那个店了！
回头儿讲古。那会儿，除了ACT，还有个“汉字城”。我和舟子兄都是“汉
字城”的“带枪刘邓”，干着“镇压群众运动”的勾当。：)
古老头由于得维持假正经的面具，被人称为“老支书”。也是的，和村里的
老支书一副嘴脸，镇压了不少年轻人的风花雪月，愧啊！
年轻人有年轻人的本事，大街上不准胡来，人另僻密室幽会。那天一姑娘约
了人谈心，像小布什一样忘了关麦克风，闺房里的悄悄话就流到大街上来了。
满大街那个热闹！姑娘一阵风跑出了“汉字城”。她在城外给我发了封密电，
不骂我“老支书”了：“干爹，这回儿可羞死人了，您得帮我一把！”古老
头只好约和几个网友给她打圆场。管不管事不敢讲，那时上“汉字城”的年
轻人一个个比猴儿还精，几句话就能把他们给哄了？
我不是那姑娘的干爹，她是跟着莲波叫，莲波是唯一在“汉字城”一直叫我
干爹的人。刷我呐？我不知道，或看不出来，反正我在“汉字城”一漏脸，莲
波就叫干爹，虎得莲波石榴裙边周一圈仰慕人一楞一愣的。
真是气不忿，前阵看帖子，说是莲波嫁了座山雕，所以座山雕是我干女婿。就
这座山雕，背后放我一冷箭，舟子兄还老拿他那帖子当先锋，于是我回回得不
情愿地让舟子兄拉出来代人受过。不过我老了，耳也顺了，让人骂去吧。备不
住哪天我干女婿良心发现，自己把那帖撤了，我再念声“阿弥陀佛！”
就先侃这点儿，有空再来醉话连篇。
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
最近认识了一个上海的网络编辑，向我推荐Sieg的作品。她的信是这样说的：“目前网
上有个奇才，写的很怪，但毫无疑问是最好的。我发一篇他刚写的东西给你看看。五四
的冷饭炒到现在，没喂出什么好宝宝。倒是这个人，完全西化，让我眼前一亮。中秋那
天他一直在单位上机，根本没看见什么月亮。你看他描写得神不神？”
她推荐的就是我附在下面的“黑色青青草”。我看了后，感觉平平，但有些模仿爱伦·
坡。为了比较，我把赋格的《夜航车》偷偷发给了她，同时又把我对“黑色青青草”的
看想法对她说了。今天她回信说：“SIEG恰恰最看不起爱伦坡。他的深度是和网上写手
们迥异的。文字跳脱飞扬，未必就是轻浮，如同平缓沉郁的形式未必就是深刻一样。否
则李白就是最大的轻浮狂了。王小波的文字也跳脱，但他不过是低调切入罢了。当然这
确不是他代表作。我们《网络文学》发表的大多是这一代人的特色作品，完全和传统有
区别的。你发来的那个人文字功底显然还不纯熟，用词老了些。而五十年代的苏联描写
模式如同中国传统不彻底悲忧善恶的审美心理一样，都快走到头了。由于多媒体技术的
发展和冲击，十九世纪的阅读写作方式已经不太有竞争力了。改革是历史发展的必由之
路。”
我认为，她的话里有些是正确的，但是，她对赋格的评价和对下面的文章的评价显然是
错误的。如果他指责赋格的别的毛病还没关系，居然指责赋格的文字功底，这
从何说起？即使赋格的文字再烂，也要比下面的这一篇要强上几倍吧？何况，我认为赋
格的功底根本就不差。你们怎么看？下面就是她送我的那一篇——
肖毛
黑色青青草
Sieg
我先是吓了一跳，以为霏霏把墨水全泼到html上去了，还见一比月饼还
难看的月亮土兮兮地挂上面，就知道惨了惨了这世界要惨了。
话说今晚梅龙镇里面，虽然灯光通明，却人烟稀少，偶然有些顾客走过，
也是均做狼顾貌。我蹑手蹑脚地在安全通道那里打开早就发现的一扇门，那里是在
造这幢37层楼时因施工图失误而遗留下来的一条死道，但我在两个月前已经凿通了它，
我知道它通向哪里。
我在里面走着，外面是呼呼的风声沿着风井往下迅速滑下，本来我是准
备好一只手电筒的，但临走时一时疏忽，只记得往裤子的绑腿上插上我从理
塘带回来的弯刃藏刀，却把电筒给忘了。
不过没有关系，我照样摸索着前进，终于到了终点，我把封在那里的那
块塑料石头拔出来，于是整个梅龙镇按共享空间原理围出的内室大厅就在我
的眼皮下了，而我头顶上却是密不透风的预制板。
我拔出藏刀，一下两下把预制板凿了个大洞，中秋的月光就从洞里瞄准
着降下，直接就落在大厅中央，但下面太亮了，谁都看不出这个效果。
我蹑手蹑脚地回到我的电脑前，如开头所说打开了青青草页面，结果当
青青草以其出乎意料的全屏黑色瞬间把整个梅龙镇广场全带黑了，那些灯光
一下子全不亮了，整幢大楼一片漆黑，只有我的屏幕上有几块亮色。
外面保安正在歇斯底里地大喊大叫，十楼那里的骚动更是强烈，因为那里是
个电影院，正在放碟中谍2，我听到不少惶恐的步子响声是从那里发出的。
我噘嘴一乐，知道今晚任何人只要敢逃离梅龙镇，或任何一人敢闯进梅
龙镇，他就立即会僵住。
而且僵得连后悔一下的机会都没有。
电梯停了，我一楼一楼地走下去，一直走到大厅，那里门口内外已经站
着不少僵人，还有些人看来识了乖，不敢靠近大门，便在大厅里胡乱奔走。
那束月光就从梅龙镇广场的屋顶上直泄37层下来，由于时间长了，所以
被月光照着的那块大理石处已经出现了一个圆滑光润的凹坑。
我坐在这个凹坑旁，对着这束月光凌空击键，每一个字符都顺着这束月
光冲天而上，所以我知道我正在打着这篇文章肯定能被嫦蛾看见，也许她今
晚就会回个mail给我，说这么多年来她一点也不后悔吃了灵药，因为对女人
来说比金钱更久远的是爱情，比爱情更久远的是容貌。
我想我应该在这里开始写我才不在乎你私奔到月亮上去呢，那儿不就有个只会
砍树的老头，还有一只只会傻乐的兔子么，还吴质不眠倚桂树露脚斜
飞湿寒兔呢，呸，压根就是吴老头神经衰弱睡不着觉，兔子不爱洗澡最多洗
个脚。告诉你吧我在人间比谁都幸福我有黄金万两我有良田万顷我有美女上
万，怎么着吧逮谁谁不羡哪，你去那个死寂沉沉的月亮好了，那么多个环形
山我看看个个象是给你挖的墓，你爱呆哪个就呆哪个好了。我这里好得不得了好得
快要死脱了好得算了我还是说实话吧其实我身无分文我片瓦不俱我一女不娶因为我自从
那天你飞了以后我就也同时离开了人类的那个情感世界，
那似乎是个遥远的地域，那里发生的一切都像皮影戏。
就这么着吧我今晚就承认了罢这几千年来我就终于承认了吧我爱你行了吧我爱你
这没什么好得意的算我输行了吧反正当月亮盈得都装不下它的光芒时我的心也溢流千行
泪水。
不过你没什么好得意的，你看这是什么？
击键到这里，我不打了，低头拔出那把藏刀，对着这束月光就是一刀，
乳白色的气体从伤口出喷涌而出，那是月光的血，而且是它动脉里的血，因 为它
静脉里的血是淡白色的，我一刀又一刀地捅着，终于把它捅断了，地上
残留的那段马上就消失了，上面长长的一段则迅速皱缩回去，一会儿也没有
了，地上只剩下一堆我没发出去的字符，以一篇文章的形式散在这凹形的坑里。
我捞起这篇文章，它象一件牛奶内衣般轻盈，我披着它腾空而起，而下
面那些僵着的人也同时获得了活动能力，他们惊呼着，以为汤姆克鲁斯从银
幕里飞出来了。在他们的大呼小叫声里我直接飞到37楼，然后一脚踹开混凝
土，在一片灰尘中我进入放电脑的屋子，我把这篇文章贴在黑色青青草的内
容栏里，然后打算将它传到网上。
嗯，哪怕全世界的人都知道我爱你。
你也甭想知道。
永远甭想。
看我看一眼吧莫让红颜守空枕青春无悔不死永远的爱人
谁能将这首歌带到月球上给她
我会在歌的外面扎上一束泪水
这泪水已经在死海里躺了几千年
就等着向你而来的一刻
这个世界已经无人可爱
拔剑四顾笑的比哑然还哑然
方月当空方月都能当空却为何当不下一个嫦蛾
于是我只能对着这方形的月亮看
方形的月亮真好看
土头土脑好好玩
把你剪下当首页
谁来看嘿嘿谁就是猪头三
猪头三猪头三
我们都是猪头三
一不准哭二不准笑
大家一起三三三
有爱不爱猪头三
爱了白爱猪三头
爱了又爱三头猪
不爱即爱三猪头
呜呼，若夫离爱即无忧怖者，夫复人哉？草木哉？
(载于中秋夜“青青草”黑色版）
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] jcwj's ”黑色青青草“
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不知这位“上海的网络编辑”有多神圣，各花入各眼，“毫无疑问是最好的”断语下得
让人呐闷。如果她是位“顶尖”人物，让我这小人物觉得她水平也不咋的。至于她推荐
的“黑色青青草”，有些小才，“最好的”就免了吧。
古平
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> 不知这位“上海的网络编辑”有多神圣，各花入各眼，“毫无疑问是最好的”断语下
得让人呐闷。如果她是位“顶尖”人物，让我这小人物觉得她水平也不咋的。
：我也不清楚，估计不是什么人物。是她先找上我的，我还不大熟悉，以后也不
想和她熟悉了。像古平老兄所说，黑色青青草”，是“有些小才”，但要说最好
却太过分了，估计在新语丝发表也还不够资格吧？
我曾经和一些自认是编辑或者作家的人接触过，也给他们推荐过赋格，可是他们
似乎都不觉怎样。我想，他们可能是在嫉妒。说起来，也怪赋格，怎么就不打
个广告出去呢？让他们都知道一下，当代旅行散文的佳品到底是什么样子。
肖毛
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Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2000 11:56:12 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: Re: [xys_friends] jcwj's
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-18 10:39:00 jcwj写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>> 不知这位“上海的网络编辑”有多神圣，各花入各眼，“毫无疑问是最好的”断语下
>得让人呐闷。如果她是位“顶尖”人物，让我这小人物觉得她水平也不咋的。
>
>：我也不清楚，估计不是什么人物。是她先找上我的，我还不大熟悉，以后也不
>想和她熟悉了。像古平老兄所说，黑色青青草”，是“有些小才”，但要说最好
>却太过分了，估计在新语丝发表也还不够资格吧？
唉，说老实话，这种故弄玄虚的东西在中文网上其实是一抓一大把的。
在下以为，这类东西写起来最省力气。呵呵，类似的文笔以前也曾有
的，也曾被捧过，后来大家看得多了，就乱开些玩笑，于是乎，很少
在网上见到那位作者了。大概她也不写什么了。
如果说要拿新语丝作参照的话，第八期（我编的，：））上国内两个
作者路离的“女人马音”，解聪的“与蟑螂共舞”，我认为都很不错。
如果单说散文，拿“与蟑螂共舞”与“黑色青青草”做对比，恕我直
言，前者要强得多得多。要我说强在什么地方我说不上来，就象让我
解释什么是“品位”（不是品味，：）），我也解释不来，但我可以
说高下立判——这仅仅是我的眼光。
不过，还是那句老话，各花入各眼。：）
还有个问题，SIEG也认为他的这篇文章好吗？还是开了个玩笑？
>我曾经和一些自认是编辑或者作家的人接触过，也给他们推荐过赋格，可是他们
>似乎都不觉怎样。我想，他们可能是在嫉妒。说起来，也怪赋格，怎么就不打
>个广告出去呢？让他们都知道一下，当代旅行散文的佳品到底是什么样子。
>
>肖毛
都知道“画鬼容易画人难”，可国内的文学网上似乎流行“画鬼”，
故做高深的心理刻画，烦不胜烦的意境堆砌，古怪的格式。。。。，
偏偏缺少真正的经验和感悟。
赋格的旅行散文也是我之钟爱。不过，我想，识货的人还是很多的，
国内有些网站也做了收集（记得以前谁提过）。只不过，他不在BBS上
活动，知道的人不多。其实，在国内的BBS上，只要你是活跃分子，哪
怕什么都不写（正规一点的文章），也会成为“名人”的。：）
螳螂
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From: "jcwj" <jcwj@hec-china.com>
To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: Re: [xys_friends] jcwj's
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
唉，说老实话，这种故弄玄虚的东西在中文网上其实是一抓一大把的。
在下以为，这类东西写起来最省力气。呵呵，类似的文笔以前也曾有
的，也曾被捧过，后来大家看得多了，就乱开些玩笑，于是乎，很少
在网上见到那位作者了。大概她也不写什么了。
:刚才我还和另一个新语丝的朋友私下谈过，我觉得这篇文字没趣的
很，为什么有人觉得好？是我落伍了？变遗老了？现在见有了同伙，
我就开心多了:-)
如果单说散文，拿“与蟑螂共舞”与“黑色青青草”做对比，恕我直
言，前者要强得多得多。
：我相信是这样，虽然我没看:-) 但我想，如果叫 “与螳螂共舞”会
更吸引人:-))
还有个问题，SIEG也认为他的这篇文章好吗？还是开了个玩笑？
：我没有说清楚，这一篇“黑色青青草”就是SIEG写的！他是什么人物？如果
写的都是这样的作品的话，我看也没什么了不起。
都知道“画鬼容易画人难”，可国内的文学网上似乎流行“画鬼”，
故做高深的心理刻画，烦不胜烦的意境堆砌，古怪的格式。。。。，
偏偏缺少真正的经验和感悟。
：其实，现在作品中的“心理描写”不是太多，而是太少了。象茨威格
的心理分析，谁能比得上呢？那些为分析而分析，为怪异而怪异的东西
才是最要不得的。说白了，他们没有真正的内容可写，所以才这么装高深
的，就像螳螂说的，他们“偏偏缺少真正的经验和感悟。”
赋格的旅行散文也是我之钟爱。不过，我想，识货的人还是很多的，
：国内有一本杂志叫《万象》，有人曾经向它们推荐过赋格，可它们却
说不合适——哪里不合适呢？我真搞不清楚。
肖毛
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From: "minghy minghy" <mudhuy@hotmail.com>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] jcwj's ”黑色青青草“
Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2000 13:22:18 CST
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>
>唉，说老实话，这种故弄玄虚的东西在中文网上其实是一抓一大把的。
>在下以为，这类东西写起来最省力气。呵呵，类似的文笔以前也曾有
>的，也曾被捧过，后来大家看得多了，就乱开些玩笑，于是乎，很少
>在网上见到那位作者了。大概她也不写什么了。
>
>如果说要拿新语丝作参照的话，第八期（我编的，：））上国内两个
>作者路离的“女人马音”，解聪的“与蟑螂共舞”，我认为都很不错。
>如果单说散文，拿“与蟑螂共舞”与“黑色青青草”做对比，恕我直
>言，前者要强得多得多。要我说强在什么地方我说不上来，就象让我
>解释什么是“品位”（不是品味，：）），我也解释不来，但我可以
>说高下立判——这仅仅是我的眼光。
>
>不过，还是那句老话，各花入各眼。：）
虽然是这话，毕竟有些好东西是应该属于大家共享的。赋格的东西又不是
什么高深的文论，按说一般水平的人多少都能领会吧。
> >我曾经和一些自认是编辑或者作家的人接触过，也给他们推荐过赋格，可是他们
> >似乎都不觉怎样。我想，他们可能是在嫉妒。说起来，也怪赋格，怎么就不打
> >个广告出去呢？让他们都知道一下，当代旅行散文的佳品到底是什么样子。
他们不吭声。如果不是妒忌，估计就是长了个稻草脑袋。当然还有一种可能，
就是能出版的作品和好作品之间从来就不能划等号。
> >
> >肖毛
>
>都知道“画鬼容易画人难”，可国内的文学网上似乎流行“画鬼”，
>故做高深的心理刻画，烦不胜烦的意境堆砌，古怪的格式。。。。，
>偏偏缺少真正的经验和感悟。
说地很好。平实的文章要写好才真见功力。我想，应帆就是想做这方面的尝
试：）。
>
>赋格的旅行散文也是我之钟爱。不过，我想，识货的人还是很多的，
>国内有些网站也做了收集（记得以前谁提过）。只不过，他不在BBS上
>活动，知道的人不多。其实，在国内的BBS上，只要你是活跃分子，哪
>怕什么都不写（正规一点的文章），也会成为“名人”的。：）
才不多呢。象中文网上鼎鼎大名的Johnathan（我后来居然见到了，世界真小：）），
原先在水母情话，很多人（包括我在内）非常喜欢他的书评的。赋格也曾用过
他的影评，结果他自己好象对赋格倒没多少反应，奇怪死了，难道他这么没眼
力？或者是太自持了吧。
我就奇怪，那么多人对Johanthan趋之若骛，怎么就看不到真正的精品呢。
泥
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其实说白了，那些东西都是叫做形式大于内容。
问题是，现在不但文学作品，电影什么的全有这毛病。
泥
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 漏了一句话
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 其实说白了，那些东西都是叫做形式大于内容。
>
> 问题是，现在不但文学作品，电影什么的全有这毛病。
>
>
> 泥
电影这东西是注定了就有毛病的，因为拍电影的人不可能
只为了自己的喜好，想怎么拍就怎么拍，他们必须要考虑
观众的口味。如果有导演只是为了自己的艺术口味而艺术，
先不论他能不能生存下去，这样的导演首先在品格上就不
怎么样。毕竟他花的是别人的钱，人家是为了要赚钱才给
你投资，让你拍电影，你怎么可以牺牲别人的利益而为了
自己所谓灵感的宣泄呢？
看过那么多好莱坞的片子，印象最深的的是《勇敢的心》，
他有一种豪情。还有《楚门的世界》，这部片子让我经常
有种感觉，似乎自己周围都暗暗布置了摄象机，而我是个
毫不知情的演员。就这么两部好片子，有些地方我也挺反
感，最突出的就是“戏不够，爱来凑”了，非得在片子里
给主人公强加上情人，这算不算是包办婚姻？咱也不是抵
制爱情的心理变态，只是这种“爱情”就像炝锅后留下的
葱花，让人反胃。有什么办法，导演就是一百个不乐意，
只要是大众要看，你就得往里加。人在江湖，身不由己啊。
所以咱对于电影别抱那么大希望，看点警匪枪战之类的，
放松一下，看完就忘得了。偶尔看到个有内涵的，就算是
捡着了，谁叫电影这玩意先天就不足。
写书的就强多了。你完全可以只为了自己高兴而写，不必
考虑能不能出版，读者爱不爱看。实在是写出来之后，自
我陶醉地不得了，只要不怕挨板砖，可以往bbs或讨论组上
贴嘛，搞不好真来个知音呢。写东西跟拍电影最大的区别
就是写东西只耗费自己的时间精力，你只用对自己负责，
不必非得去迎合什么。
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From: "minghy minghy" <mudhuy@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 漏了一句话
Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2000 17:18:05 CST
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----- Original Message -----
发件人: Ding Ye <dingye@mail.qdcatv.com.cn>
收件人: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
发送时间: 2000年9月18日 14:11
主题: Re: [xys_friends] 漏了一句话
>
>
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> > 其实说白了，那些东西都是叫做形式大于内容。
> >
> > 问题是，现在不但文学作品，电影什么的全有这毛病。
> >
> >
> > 泥
>
>电影这东西是注定了就有毛病的，因为拍电影的人不可能
>只为了自己的喜好，想怎么拍就怎么拍，他们必须要考虑
>观众的口味。如果有导演只是为了自己的艺术口味而艺术，
>先不论他能不能生存下去，这样的导演首先在品格上就不
>怎么样。毕竟他花的是别人的钱，人家是为了要赚钱才给
>你投资，让你拍电影，你怎么可以牺牲别人的利益而为了
>自己所谓灵感的宣泄呢？
>
>看过那么多好莱坞的片子，印象最深的的是《勇敢的心》，
>他有一种豪情。还有《楚门的世界》，这部片子让我经常
>有种感觉，似乎自己周围都暗暗布置了摄象机，而我是个
>毫不知情的演员。就这么两部好片子，有些地方我也挺反
>感，最突出的就是“戏不够，爱来凑”了，非得在片子里
>给主人公强加上情人，这算不算是包办婚姻？咱也不是抵
>制爱情的心理变态，只是这种“爱情”就像炝锅后留下的
>葱花，让人反胃。有什么办法，导演就是一百个不乐意，
>只要是大众要看，你就得往里加。人在江湖，身不由己啊。
>所以咱对于电影别抱那么大希望，看点警匪枪战之类的，
>放松一下，看完就忘得了。偶尔看到个有内涵的，就算是
>捡着了，谁叫电影这玩意先天就不足。
>
>写书的就强多了。你完全可以只为了自己高兴而写，不必
>考虑能不能出版，读者爱不爱看。实在是写出来之后，自
>我陶醉地不得了，只要不怕挨板砖，可以往bbs或讨论组上
>贴嘛，搞不好真来个知音呢。写东西跟拍电影最大的区别
>就是写东西只耗费自己的时间精力，你只用对自己负责，
>不必非得去迎合什么。
>
您的话我全都同意。不过我那句我也不准备撤回：）
ni
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From fang@xys.org Mon Sep 18 11:47:22 2000 -0700
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
据说方舟子的老朋友朱海军撒手人寰了。
下面是一个链接：
http://202.99.23.202/cgi-bin/cyforum/index.php?forumname=%C7%E0%C4%EA%BB%B0%
CC%E2&job=topic
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
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Subject: [xys_friends] 概率题
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
首先对朱海军表示哀悼。我第一个反应是以为在开玩笑，去中青
论坛看了才知是真事，实在很意外。但是想到他一年多来那么拼
命上网，却又觉得不是太意外。看来大家上网还是要有节制，多
注意身体。自然MM不妨多宣传宣传上网卫生，号召大家多吃水果。
前些天这儿谈了一阵子概率，现在我找了道很有意思的题，有兴
趣的可以解一下：
聚会结束后尚剩六顶帽子，但帽主喝醉了，找不着存物牌，更认
不出自己的帽子。保管员无奈，让他们随便拿。结果六个人没一
个拿的是自己的帽子。请问这种情况发生的概率是多少？
把上题推广到普遍情况，N个人N顶帽子，每个人都拿了别人的帽
子，概率是多少？
答案五天后公布。
一华
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Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2000 11:31:48 -0700
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: [xys_friends] 关于所谓“朱海军死亡”事件的几点声明
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关于所谓“朱海军死亡”事件的几点声明
·方舟子·
朱海军乃是一度在中文网上异常活跃的网人，以宣称自己对人类进化、人类
难产做出了唯一完满解释、是世界级思想家、秦桧是中华民族的伟大英雄等等众
多伪科学、奇谈怪论著称，并几次弄虚作假，对此我和其他网友多有驳斥。昨天，
《中国青年报》“青年话题”版编辑、中青论坛“青年话题”版管理员李方突然
跑到新语丝的“读书论坛”宣布朱海军“暴病而亡，死于深圳”，哀叹“海军既
逝，吾道孤矣”，要大家跟着他一起哭。我的有关评论被人冒名断章取义地贴到
中青论坛，那里的读者在李方的带领下对我进行了恶毒的攻击、谩骂、诽谤，已
对我的名誉造成了损害。有人还乘机对新语丝网站进行轰炸。
几年来我已目睹了几起网人“死亡”事件，后来都证明了纯属伪造。这一次
的死亡事件只有李方的一面之词，真相如何，不得而知，我不想也不愿去查核。
如果此事属实，我已有过几次评论，现综合起来，完整表述如下：
一、一个人的死亡总是一件不幸的事故。我向朱海军的亲属表示同情和慰问。
据说朱海军有一女儿，希望朱的朋友们不要只是停留在口头的发泄，而能为朱女
的抚养和教育尽一分心意。
二、朱海军的突然去世，使他失去了反省、改正的机会，尤其是在不久前，
受“陈晓宁事件”的教育，他已难得地表示计划放弃自己的伪科学主张，向我认
错。我相信，如果给予机会，朱海军能脚踏实地地开始新的生活，是能够力所能
及地对社会做出贡献的。对他的去世，我表示惋惜。
三、一个人的突然死亡，绝对无法改变一个人的历史，无法改变一个人的贡
献，更无法改变一个人的著述的价值。李方之流，想利用死亡把朱海军打扮成网
络烈士、科学斗士、一代伟人、中华民族的先知（见中青论坛上的种种荒唐可笑
的“悼词”），甚至想把朱的死亡当成一件党同伐异、向主流科学进攻的武器，
这是值得我们警惕的。我对李方之流的这种言行，表示鄙视。前有海子、王小波，
现又有朱海军，对这种神化死亡、毒害青少年的作法，我表示强烈谴责。
四、李方长期利用其手中的权力，在《中国青年报》上多次发表宣扬伪科学、
反科学的文章，有一次还不点名地造我的谣言，现在又把其主持的中青论坛变成
了纠集、鼓动伪科学人士的园地，这是与《中国青年报》做为对中国青年有重大
影响的全国性大报的形象格格不入的。我做为《中国青年报》的长期读者及其附
属刊物的撰稿人，对此表示失望。希望《中国青年报》的领导能对李方进行批评
教育、督促其改正。如果李方继续利用《中国青年报》的资源对我进行诽谤和伪
造我的张贴，对我的名誉造成伤害，我必追究《中国青年报》的法律责任。
2000.9.18.
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From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: [xys_friends] =?X-UNKNOWN?Q?Re=3A_=5Bxys=5Ffriends=5D_=B8=C5=C2=CA=CC=E2?=
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On Tue, 19 Sep 2000, Zhou Yihua wrote:
> 聚会结束后尚剩六顶帽子，但帽主喝醉了，找不着存物牌，更认
> 不出自己的帽子。保管员无奈，让他们随便拿。结果六个人没一
> 个拿的是自己的帽子。请问这种情况发生的概率是多少？
>
> 把上题推广到普遍情况，N个人N顶帽子，每个人都拿了别人的帽
> 子，概率是多少？
>
This is an interesting problem. The theoretical name for this problem is
DERANGEMENT. The best part of this problem is when N -> infinite.
－－万精油－－, 1/e
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Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2000 9:14:41 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
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在 00-9-18 14:11:00 Ding Ye写道：
>电影这东西是注定了就有毛病的，因为拍电影的人不可能
>只为了自己的喜好，想怎么拍就怎么拍，他们必须要考虑
>观众的口味。如果有导演只是为了自己的艺术口味而艺术，
>先不论他能不能生存下去，这样的导演首先在品格上就不
>怎么样。毕竟他花的是别人的钱，人家是为了要赚钱才给
>你投资，让你拍电影，你怎么可以牺牲别人的利益而为了
>自己所谓灵感的宣泄呢？
昨天把《卧虎藏龙》VCD看了一遍，拍得很美，但感觉不甚
好，觉得李安拍这个片子，先有了市场的预设，就是给外
国人看的，主要是赚他们的钱。里面有很多的对话，好象
是为不懂中国文化或者对东方“神秘”文化有好奇心的老
外准备的，因为那些话将给中国人听，完全没有必要，甚
至会觉得过于矫情。
翻过头来看《理智与情感》，又会觉得是为中国人拍的了。
螳螂
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From: "Ruliang Song" <songruliang@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: [xys_friends] 关于赋格
Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2000 05:22:03 GMT
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赋格的确很有才华，说出来大家不要心里不平衡，我觉得赋格的散文最妙，在寺里应该排名第一：），
尤其是旅行散文，他的可以和余光中60年代的旅行散文有一比。只不过功力还没余老人家深厚，而且风
格有其独特之处，有点古龙之对金庸（稍稍不太恰当）。原来在发起怀念图雅的时候，俺早就有冲动想给
大家提议怀念赋格，可是人太懒，终于没提议。图雅的让人觉得有读的愉快，就向见了一个可爱的女孩，
和她聊天的感觉，如果拿旅行来说就向是入眼一望无垠的绿色草原，开阔轻松而有趣。而赋格则有阅（看）
的快感，好像一个性感神秘的女郎，冷艳却让人不知不觉中魔，也拿旅行来说，好像是你无意中觅的一处佳处，
处处奇情异景，在你想象不到的地方会出现美不胜收的景象，让人应接不暇。
螳螂也特棒（有点两者兼得），不过他还没成遗老，就不捧了：）不过现在也懒多了：）
关于那个月亮什么的，我觉得是连这小才也透着邪门，向是恋了葵花宝典似的，既然是写月亮的，
大家怎么没想到《围城》里的“孕妇”月亮呢，我一看这篇文章，就马上想到他了。
说起正宗的文学编辑不肯选赋格的东东，我完全赞同泥的那句“他们选的和好的从来都不划等号”，觉得寺里应该自己搞点出书之类的活动，虽然以前搞过，不过不太成气候。顺便带出一个商业化的话题，我知道寺里的同胞们是反对商业化的，不过我觉得以商养文也不错，关键是如何处理品位与金钱的关系。有了钱有了影响，应该会吸引和培养更多更优秀的作者，反而能更高的提升品位。实际上，我觉得现在寺里的文章没有以前耐读（或许是我的一家之言），实际上新雨丝在大陆的影响力不够大，他们那帮新生代只知道什么“榕树”之类，没办法：（
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
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Subject: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2000 06:59:45 GMT
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换一个说法：
地球上总共有五十亿人，分为男女两种。传说中冥冥天界
里面，每个男人与女人都有一个特定的伴侣。如果你找到了你
注定的伴侣，那么就是幸福的顶点。
如果人的结合是随机的，那么全世界的人全没对的概率是
多少？（假设只结一次婚）
看了这样的答案，你就不会为婚姻的不成功而生气了。
windover（筋斗云）
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
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Subject: [xys_friends] SIEG 的小说
Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2000 07:13:47 GMT
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在所谓新生代中，SIEG 确实算得上是有才华的。尽管
其心思都放在文字的装饰上面。不过在所有怪异文风的小说
里面，我只有SIEG 的能够读得下去。
转一篇有点故事情节的，比较好看些。
十二生肖：蛇
作者：sieg
这个冬天没有尽头，我不是这么说说的，而是这个冬天真的是没
有尽头了，你们嗅一下就明白了：长街上没有一片雪是带有停止的气
味的，它们只知道下呀下呀，一直下到把整个城市都淹没在松松的雪
花被里了，它们也不会停。
我穿行在这厚厚的雪花被里，提醒着自己千万不要睡过去，在这
寒冷的冬夜里，睡过去就不会再醒过来了。现在街上没有一个人，他
们都在自己家里冬眠着。为了打发这没有尽头的冬天，最近他们过上
了一个预先安排好的叫春节的节日，在这个节日里，冬眠着的人们可
以从床上爬起来，看一些谁也不觉得好看的节目，放一些谁也不觉得
好听的鞭炮，做完这一切后他们又会沉沉睡去，他们说冬天不去，沉
睡不止。
可是今年的冬天没有尽头了，所以他们谁也不会再次醒来。
在雪花里游走是需要技巧的，雪花不比土地，可以有让身上鳞片
支撑住的坚实地方，它得先需让头部这里依靠身体重量压上一压，做
出一小条临时的雪垫子，才能让随后的身躯有吃着力的地方。我浑身
已经冻得不行了，但我不相信在城市里会有农夫，即使有农夫我也不
会求他，即使他主动把我揣在怀里我也不会感激他，我还是会像我的
祖辈一样，狠狠地一口把他咬死，因为他以他愚蠢的同情，玷污了我
们蛇类的高贵心灵。
我们是魔鬼的化身，怎能轻易被这种廉价得已成滥情的人间行为
所俘获。
宁愿冻死，也不哀求。
根据我舌头上传来的红外信息，我知道前方有一家店虽然没有人
在里面但有灯开着，有灯就有温暖，有温暖就有希望，我得进去暖暖
身子，然后一鼓作气冲出这个快被雪花淹没的城市，回到乾冷清冽的
乡下田野里去，到那里我要好好做一个洞，把自己缩在里面盘成一团
，我要到那里去冬眠，因为那里的冬天还有一个尽头，到春天来时我
会与万物一起复苏。
那家店终于到了，我前前后后努力了半天，终于找到一个可以进
去的洞口。
我拱拱身子，来到了一个明亮的世界。
看来这里不止开了一盏灯，因为整间屋子到处都是明亮的，我的
表层皮肤告诉我这里面的温度可以达到初夏那会儿的水平，这个情报
让我很是开心，我尽力拉长身体，把每一片鳞片都张开，让周身的寒
气和这里的暖气可以彻底地交换，直到我能灵活自如地控制自己的身
体为止。
半个小时后，我就完全恢复了过来，虽然我产生了饥饿的感觉，
但我至少很觉得很温暖。我游到一张桌子上，伸出我细长分叉的舌头
，仔细辨别桌子上方一些还是模模糊糊的影子，这些影子大多是半透
明的，上面有不少形形色色的光线，扎成一束束的花草，吒紫嫣红地
长在一丛又一丛有圆有角的地带里。这奇妙的光线图案让我回想起以
前我在田野里的生活，在那里的春天里，野花野草组成的光线图案也
是这般千变万化，我经常匍匐在下面慢慢游动，看着图案在我脑子里
不断地移步换景，这有着无穷想象力的自然，没有一次给我看到的图
案是一样的，到最后我即使不动，脑子里也可以有成千上万幅现成的
图案哗哗地流过。
现在这里也有了，不过和自然的光线图案略有不同，它们明显是
人工制造的，因为透过这些有花草图案的光线强弱及冷暖分布还不是
非常富有变化，不过在构图上它们也达到了某种令我惊讶的繁复，而
且，它们一组一组分得很明确，使得我可以分开来欣赏它们，而不是
象自然的那种连一块儿，让我看得眼花缭乱。我瞅准其中一处光线图
案颇为独特的三角地带游去，那里的花朵开得很大，花形也很饱满，
是野生玫瑰类型的。我游上去，感觉到人工合成的花瓣连在一个平面
上贴着我的皮肤滑过，那可能是凉爽而光滑的丝绸质地呢。我停下前
进的动作，在原地打了个旋儿，让这丝绸贴身的舒适裹满我的身体。
在打旋的时候，我发现三角地带上还有一条秘密的缝，那里漏出些许
微弱的光线来，就象在两片快要叠在一起的树叶当中还露着一条缝一
般，我兴趣盎然地引导着自己的头凑上去，穿过去，那缝有弹性，微
微收住我在其中穿行的身子，象是有一个很体贴我的环在经过我身体
的外周。环到了身体中段时，我往下一沉，想到另一扎也很好看的光
线图案那里去，熟料那环竟带着所有三角地带上的花草一起跟了过来
，全覆在我身上，轻轻地没有一点重量。我开心地晃了晃尾巴，就索
性带着这满身的花草往那另一扎光线图案处游去。那地带没有大花，
全是细碎如矢车菊般的小花，而且花瓣轻薄，光线可以有一半透射过
这花瓣，现出一抹抹的淡蓝色，我再次把头部往这花丛中探去，让薄
得几乎让光线全部穿过的织物在我吻部颈部摩擦，上面那些轻巧的小
花在我脑子里也在我身体上流动着，使我以为自己是条飘满鲜花的溪
水。这个三角地带没有秘密的缝隙可以钻进去，但我找到了一条可以
拖动它上面所有花草的柔韧带子，这条带子非常地细，上面还有锯齿
草般的边缘，我身体一用劲，于是这第二扎光线图案也被我带走了。
我就这么在这人工的大花园里四处嬉戏着，把所遇到的各扎花卉
一并采集下来，统统挂在了我的身上，虽然它们都很轻，但挂到后来
我还是运动地有些困难，但不管怎么样，我却快乐得很，因为这下子
我可拥有了好多好多美丽的花儿，而这在平时是不可能的：只有现在
，整个城市的人都在冬眠之中，我才有可能会采到这么多的花儿。外
面忽然鞭炮声地动山摇地响起，我猜是他们自己定下的最快乐的时光
到了，过了这时光之后他们还会继续睡过去，在他们各自的睡梦里把
这快乐一遍又一遍地品咂。可我却还醒着，因为我要离开这个城市，
我不愿和他们一起在城市里冬眠。城市里的冬眠没有清新的空气，而
且永远也不会有结束的日子。
可谁会想到呢，在雪地里拼死向着那田野而去的路上，我竟会巧
遇到一座城市花园！这个意外的花园象是从空中突然罩落的一般，使
我可以暂时忘却饥肠辘辘的肚子和生死未料的前途，而尽情沉醉于这
只有在春天的田野里才有的灿烂世界中。我决意在这里放纵到天明，
然后再踏上那非死即活的路程。
我定定神，转动着脑袋寻觅下一个捕获对象，终于在前面光线比
较幽暗的一个角落那里找到了目标，我有些困难地往那里移去，在目
标下方停了下来，稍稍喘了几口气。那是一个双圆连环的地带，上面
有些不透明的带子垂着，看来这个地带的织物很厚，上面根本没有光
线可以透出，但这地带外缘则盛开着许多金盏花，密密麻麻的一圈，
光线繁密得无以复加。金盏花是我最喜欢的几种花卉之一，它们的伞
形花序能让我的心和花粉一起向空中吹起，然后缓缓降下，我昂起脖
子，穿过那些古怪的不透明的带子，然后让头颈下缘蹭着这些可爱的
花瓣边缘滑行着，凑到下一个紧接着的圆形地带时，我顽皮地斜绕过
去，把头放到下一个圆形地带下面，让头顶感受着花瓣们的抚弄，绕
到尽头处我不甘心，又往上折回来让头颈下缘再次感受一遍这奇异的
接触感觉，最后在碰到自己先前行进的身躯时我玩了个技巧，从我自
己的身躯下面潜进去再探出来，凌空沿着这双圆连环地带把自己打了
个八字形，但这时我的身躯长度就不够用了，于是我按老方法，身体
一沉，想把这些金盏花给全拖下来。
我拖得够多的了，这是我拖的最后一个，拖完就出发吧，时间不
早了，外面的天有些蒙蒙亮了。
后来我回到魔鬼身边的时候，他告诉我那个城市后来因为来了个
小伙子，雪就不下了，接着春天来时，他们就又各自去上班了。后来
当一个女子内衣店的老板打开她的店门，准备重新开业时，她忽然就
僵在那里不动了。
“是那小伙子把你从上面解下来的。你当时浑身穿着十多件女子
的刻花亵裤，吊死在一只饰有金盏花图案的黛安芬胸罩上。
小伙子把你的尸体交给我时，说你当时挂在那里，脸上有着和当
年耶稣一样圣洁的光芒。”
windover（筋斗云）
windover@hotmail.com
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>尤其是旅行散文，他的可以和余光中60年代的旅行散文有一比。
:我觉得赋格和余光中似乎不大对路。不是功力的问题。余光中犹如李白，
而赋格虽然也有豪迈处，但他的特点是典雅，有漂泊感。记得赋格提过，
有一次和人出行，听见朋友放WILDFLOWER这首歌。我觉得用这首歌形容赋格
的文风很合适。
实际上，我觉得现在寺里的文章没有以前耐读（或许是我的一家之言），实际上新雨丝在大陆的影响力不够大，他们那帮新生代只知道什么“榕树”之类，没办法：
：我也有同感。甚至我连新语丝杂志都退订了。我觉得，以前散文是新语丝的
亮点，但去年以来，散文的水准下降很多，小说就更别提了。所以，今年我只
好退订了。
赋格是否还在写我不知道。我觉得，如果应帆把更多的精力用在写散文上，也许
会有好的收效。螳螂的散文我见的不多，而且我想他还是勤快的写小说的好，只
可惜他是越来越懒。筋斗云的散文也很有特色，可惜我见的不多。
以前的新语丝杂志，有赋格的散文，螳螂的小说，舟子的历史随笔，少君的文字，
这些都是比较好的。现在是什么样呢？我不知道。
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-19 5:21:00 Ruliang Song写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>赋格的确很有才华，说出来大家不要心里不平衡，我觉得赋格的散文最妙，
>在寺里应该排名第一：），>尤其是旅行散文，他的可以和余光中60年代的
我看不只在寺里，就是整个中文互联网，少有出其右者。
>旅行散文有一比。只不过功力还没余老人家深厚，而且风格有其独特之处，
>有点古龙之对金庸（稍稍不太恰当）。原来在发起怀念图雅的时候，俺早
>就有冲动想给大家提议怀念赋格，可是人太懒，终于没提议。图雅的让人
>觉得有读的愉快，就向见了一个可爱的女孩，和她聊天的感觉，如果拿旅
>行来说就向是入眼一望无垠的绿色草原，开阔轻松而有趣。而赋格则有阅（看）
>的快感，好像一个性感神秘的女郎，冷艳却让人不知不觉中魔，也拿旅行来说，
>好像是你无意中觅的一处佳处，处处奇情异景，在你想象不到的地方会出
>现美不胜收的景象，让人应接不暇。
赋格还有一类作品，很值得称道，就是影评。他的影评分
析透彻，渲染适度，算是专业水准，但针对的还是网上的
普通人，所以比专业还要略高一筹。赋格的影评大多针对
“先锋”电影，这类电影评起来不那么容易，特别是要没
看过这类电影的人仍能从影评中得到阅读上的快乐，很不
容易。
赋格的文字上有一种洒脱的仙气，这仙气不是做出来的，
是从心底冒出来的。仙气是学不来的，因为学不好就成了
妖气。很多的散文，要做出些新潮来，结果冒出的是妖气。
>螳螂也特棒（有点两者兼得），不过他还没成遗老，就不捧了：）不过现在也懒多了：）
别骂我。：）说老实话，我知道自己不是那快料，虽然也
希望自己写点什么娱乐大家，也总是无从下笔。
最近写了几段“武侠”故事，还没写完，先贴一段出来，
看着玩吧。
螳螂
五官
（一）
太阳把官道晒得铁硬。所谓官道，也不过是碎石子和着的黄土，多铺了两层；
砸得实了，不象乡下的土路那么容易起灰。路两旁原本有排水沟来着，也被麦
田挤占了许多。稀稀疏疏的柳树在一望无边的麦田里如鹤立鸡群，柳树上的蝉
的喊声却连成一片。
刘季堂略一夹马，往前窜了两步，对在前面闷头赶路的刘成说："刘成，都说
你能站在马上开枪，从不打空，那你打个鸟给我们看看。"
跟在后面的两个家丁嘿嘿地笑了，说："刘大哥轻易不出手的。既然三少爷要
看，还是露一手，我们也跟着开开眼。"
刘成原本是张家口外的小马贼。二十年前马贼元大胡子来白塔镇借粮，结果被
刘家的民团打得全军覆没。刘远山心狠手辣，要把抓到的马贼一个不剩全部活埋，
见刘成才十三、四岁的样子，摸样周正，发了善心，单把他留了下来。刘成年纪
虽小，在马贼中却颇有名声，人称千里眼，千里是夸张了些，可登高一眺，数里
地方圆的动静很少能逃过他的眼睛。
二十年过去了，刘成已长成一个大汉，娶妻生子后就搬了出来，住在离刘家大
宅不远的地方。刘成知道自己的命是刘远山给的，连老婆都是刘远山赏下的丫鬟，
于是对刘远山忠心耿耿，加之做事细密，深得刘远山的宠信。
刘成勒住坐骑，回过头来，说："你们两个兔崽子给我盯紧点，这段路不太平！"
又转过身对刘季堂说："三少，老爷吩咐过了，入夜前必须赶回白塔镇。"
刘季堂讪讪一笑，吐了下舌头，没再吭声。从青石县城回来，一路上打马直奔，
刘季堂嫌热，吵吵着要找个树荫歇凉，刘成总是不肯。两个家丁脱光了上身，带
着草帽，看上去很是惬意。刘家三少却不能脱下身上的绸布大褂。
刘成叹了口气，寻思片刻，突然纵身一跃，双脚已立在马鞍上，向四周扫了两眼，
轻轻一松，又跨坐下来。家丁和刘季堂都叫起好来。刘成却神色冷凛，一把勒住刘
季堂的马缰，说："少爷，下来歇会儿吧。"
刘季堂巴不得这句话，偏身下马，一行人就近找了个大柳树，栓好了马，就在柳
树荫下斜躺下来。
太阳白亮亮的刺眼，当头照着；偶尔一阵小风，卷来麦子的几丝清香。举目望去，
官道的两端都不见行人的踪影。一袋烟的工夫，刘家一行人重新上路，个个垂头丧
气，挥汗如雨，似乎刚才的歇息没有得到凉爽，反而多添了热气。
行不到半里，刘成期待已就的枪声响了，就在他的眼前，绸布大褂上陡然出现一
个吓人血洞，马上的人石头般地跌了下来，没有一点挣扎和迟疑。
"好枪法"刘成心里喊了一声，他知道下一个目标就是自己，他俯向马背，在一颗子
弹掠过头顶的时候同时开了枪。
一阵风过来，麦田浪一般地动了起来，麦浪里猛然站起一个汉子，踉踉跄跄地向
官道走过来，没走几步，又匍到在麦田里。
刘成纵马过去，把倒在麦田里的汉子提了过来。光着膀子、身上涂了一层黑泥的刘
季堂傻愣愣地站着，望着脚下一动不动的家丁，身体微微战抖。家丁身上青灰色的绸
布大褂早已被鲜血染红。在柳树下歇息的时候，刘成让他把大褂脱下来，他很爽快地
答应了，却对刘成让家丁穿上这个大褂，骑在自己的马上，感到迷惑不解。现在他明
白了。
刘成早已发现麦田里有动静，他当然看不到麦子下究竟是什么，可他知道水面一般
的麦田上那一小片不寻常的折纹，肯定有什么不正常的东西。他只是吃不准那动静是
人是猪，是冲着他们来的，还是一般的小偷。总之，小心为妙。
算那刺客倒霉，碰上了千里眼刘成。
（未完待续）
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From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 关于赋格
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 05:22 AM 9/19/00 +0000, you wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>赋格的确很有才华，说出来大家不要心里不平衡，我觉得赋格的散文最妙，在寺里应该排名第一：），
>尤其是旅行散文，他的可以和余光中60年代的旅行散文有一比。只不过功力还没余老人家深厚，而且风
>格有其独特之处，有点古龙之对金庸（稍稍不太恰当）。原来在发起怀念图雅的时候，俺早就有冲动想给
>大家提议怀念赋格，可是人太懒，终于没提议。图雅的让人觉得有读的愉快，就向见了一个可爱的女孩，
赋格还在网上过得好好的，怎么突然写起他的悼词来了？想激他再写文章是不是？
他的游记，我以前说过，有点电影蒙太奇的风格。国内网上流行的是那种快餐
式的文字，精致点的文章不受欢迎，没什么奇怪的。肖毛说的那位网络编辑，大概
就是从国内网人变来的吧，眼光不过尔尔。
十月中、十一月中我会路过伦敦，各停留几天。这里还有谁在伦敦的？乡巴佬第一
次去见洋世面，说不定也学着写篇游记:-)
唐郎说的解聪，人在美国。那篇与蟑螂共舞，写的是美国蟑螂，中国的蟑螂没那么
可爱:-)
方舟子
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends]Re:_[xys_friends]_概率题
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 00-9-18 14:46:00, Zhiping You wrote:
>This is an interesting problem. The theoretical name for this problem is
>DERANGEMENT. The best part of this problem is when N -> infinite.
>
>－－万精油－－, 1/e
这道题是很经典的，答案确实很美。
有个朋友私下寄来答案，可惜算错了。这题认真做一下挺有
意思的，尤其螳螂应该做一下，比计算和七对的概率好玩多
了：）
一华
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
妙！筋斗兄这么换一下说法实在妙！
五十亿几乎可看作无穷大，因此答案正如万精油指出的，是1/e，
约为37%。可见“全世界的人全没找对伴侣”的概率是非常大的。
既然大多数人都没找对，那你就认了命吧：）
不过，大伙可别受筋斗云误导，事实可不是这么回事，这世界上
适合做你伴侣的人多了去了，绝不止于一个，因此找对的概率是
很大的。
一华
At 00-9-19 6:59:00, Dan Windover wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 换一个说法：
>
> 地球上总共有五十亿人，分为男女两种。传说中冥冥天界
>里面，每个男人与女人都有一个特定的伴侣。如果你找到了你
>注定的伴侣，那么就是幸福的顶点。
> 如果人的结合是随机的，那么全世界的人全没对的概率是
>多少？（假设只结一次婚）
>
> 看了这样的答案，你就不会为婚姻的不成功而生气了。
>
>
>
>
>windover（筋斗云）
>windover@hotmail.com
>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 关于赋格
Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2000 07:59:43 +0800
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 赋格还在网上过得好好的，怎么突然写起他的悼词来了？想激他再写文章是不是？
> 他的游记，我以前说过，有点电影蒙太奇的风格。国内网上流行的是那种快餐
> 式的文字，精致点的文章不受欢迎，没什么奇怪的。肖毛说的那位网络编辑，大概
> 就是从国内网人变来的吧，眼光不过尔尔。
商业网站重视的是Page View，有了声势之后，好做做帐，然后上市骗钱。所以他们
选编辑肯定得选和国内大多数网民口味差不多的人。国内网民的整体情况跟你们ACT
那会可是大不一样。目前国内上网费高，上网只是一种年轻人的消遣，再加上三十岁
以上的人会用电脑的不多，所以国内网民集中在十几岁到二十几岁这几代人身上（我
觉得现在两三年就该算是一代人）。这几代人，也包括我自己，有个共同的特点，比
较浅薄，底蕴不足。生活底蕴不足，这些人不像那些独自在国外闯荡经历坎坷的海外
学人，他们基本没什么生活经历，没有生活经历，哪来的人生感悟？文化底蕴也不行，
他们从小就生活在高考的巨大压力下，作业得做到十点十一点，哪有什么功夫看其他
的书？上了大学之后，因为不管分配了，就得忙着学英语、学计算机，考这证那证的，
想的都比较实际，也不太注重人文知识的积累，没空啊。再就是九十年代之后，整个
知识分子群体的理想幻灭了，没了理想，世俗的东西多一些，浮躁是这个时代的精神。
在这种氛围下，不容易静下心看书。而以前那些老网人，海外学人多，那时候能考出
国去的，都是人精。那个年代的大学生气质也不一样，一般都喜欢博览群书，跟现在
的大学生比起来，人文修养显然不在一个档次上。
“新生代”们基本都是不识愁滋味的少年，还是没什么学问的少年，还是没什么学问
且自以为是颗葱的少年。你让他们写，写什么啊？除了强作愁，还能写什么啊？
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Subject: =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Re: Re: [xys_friends] =BC=F2=D6=B1=CA=C7=D2=BB=B8=F6=CF=DD=DA=E5=CE=CA=CC=E2=A3=BF?=
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-20 0:44:00 Zhou Yihua写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>>－－万精油－－, 1/e
>
>这道题是很经典的，答案确实很美。
>
>有个朋友私下寄来答案，可惜算错了。这题认真做一下挺有
>意思的，尤其螳螂应该做一下，比计算和七对的概率好玩多
>了：）
>
>一华
我一看头就大了，根本不知从何入手。极限的公式也早忘光
了。说起来当年在班里我还算数学学得比较好的。
>妙！筋斗兄这么换一下说法实在妙！
>
>五十亿几乎可看作无穷大，因此答案正如万精油指出的，是1/e，
>约为37%。可见“全世界的人全没找对伴侣”的概率是非常大的。
>既然大多数人都没找对，那你就认了命吧：）
>
>不过，大伙可别受筋斗云误导，事实可不是这么回事，这世界上
>适合做你伴侣的人多了去了，绝不止于一个，因此找对的概率是
>很大的。
>
>一华
还是老话说的好，“薄薄酒，胜茶汤，丑妻恶妾胜空房”。：）
筋斗的这个转换有误导之嫌，显然合适做夫妻的绝对不止一
人，这和该题目的每人唯一的帽子不是一回事。意大利的天
主教是不许离婚的，这倒可以套用。由此可见不许离婚是多
么的不好，至少数学上就说不过去，e在那摆着呢，谁不许离
婚，谁就是跟e过不去，谁就是和真理过不去。另外，若以后
新语丝开办网络婚姻介绍，建议以e做LOGO，也让参加者有个
心理准备。
螳螂
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
这两天大家聊格格，作为一个格格迷，俺有义务罗嗦几句。
这世上的人，依其心理的稳定态分类，可以有以下三种：第一种是安土重迁型，
想早早成家立业，结婚生子，找个稳当饭碗，太太平平过一生，人不定心就不定
；第二种是驿动漂泊型，不甘被限于固定环境内，非要在“动”的过程中才能达
到心理上的平静；第三种则是介于两者之间，但具体坐标可以是以上两极端间的
任何一点。
依俺之见，格格是属于第二种人。
分析一个人的文章，可从其形入手，也可从其神着眼。舟子说格格喜用蒙太奇手
法，正是说的“形”；肖毛说格格有漂泊感，则是其“神”。“形”多与后天的
修养有关，“神”则泰半由先天人格特质决定。
格格的文章之所以特殊，则在于它们是一种非比寻常的形和一种非比寻常的神的
奇妙结合。
说格格文字的“形”非比寻常，很容易理解。他的文字技巧无疑是好的，不管是
用典铺陈谋篇布局甚至分镜，格格都可以算是一把好手。不过只要是“形”，别
人若肯下苦功，还是模仿得来的。但是要得其“神”可就不太容易了。
格格的“神”，与他是上面说的“第二种人”大有关系。他的流浪特质，使得他
的文字在技巧之外，还淡淡地带上了一层吉普赛的忧郁。更妙的是，格格的文字
有一种近乎女性的清丽纤细，因此感情十分浓郁，但同时又有一种男性般的理智
与冷静，因此感情再浓，却从不会失控。理智和感性，在他的文字里取得了极好
的平衡。
正因为他的作品个人色彩是如此强烈，我认为硬要把他跟谁谁谁比意义是不大的。
格格就是格格，别人再怎么急管繁弦，他还是格格不入的。：)
最近他又不知上哪流浪去了，希望他一脸胡渣，满面风霜回来的时候，再给俺们
讲那方天地的故事。俺一定把屏幕擦干净，把仙草冰倒好，严阵以待。：)
虎子
Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com> wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>尤其是旅行散文，他的可以和余光中60年代的旅行散文有一比。
:我觉得赋格和余光中似乎不大对路。不是功力的问题。余光中犹如李白，
而赋格虽然也有豪迈处，但他的特点是典雅，有漂泊感。记得赋格提过，
有一次和人出行，听见朋友放WILDFLOWER这首歌。我觉得用这首歌形容赋格
的文风很合适。
实际上，我觉得现在寺里的文章没有以前耐读（或许是我的一家之言），实际上新雨丝在大陆的影响力不够大，他们那帮新生代只知道什么“榕树”之类，没办法：
：我也有同感。甚至我连新语丝杂志都退订了。我觉得，以前散文是新语丝的
亮点，但去年以来，散文的水准下降很多，小说就更别提了。所以，今年我只
好退订了。
赋格是否还在写我不知道。我觉得，如果应帆把更多的精力用在写散文上，也许
会有好的收效。螳螂的散文我见的不多，而且我想他还是勤快的写小说的好，只
可惜他是越来越懒。筋斗云的散文也很有特色，可惜我见的不多。
以前的新语丝杂志，有赋格的散文，螳螂的小说，舟子的历史随笔，少君的文字，
这些都是比较好的。现在是什么样呢？我不知道。
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From: chali <chali@netease.com>
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Organization: chali
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赋格的东东，在哪里能看到？
在 00-9-19 16:25:00 您写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>
>
>
>>尤其是旅行散文，他的可以和余光中60年代的旅行散文有一比。
>
> :我觉得赋格和余光中似乎不大对路。不是功力的问题。余光中犹如李白，
> 而赋格虽然也有豪迈处，但他的特点是典雅，有漂泊感。记得赋格提过，
> 有一次和人出行，听见朋友放WILDFLOWER这首歌。我觉得用这首歌形容赋格
> 的文风很合适。
>
> 实际上，我觉得现在寺里的文章没有以前耐读（或许是我的一家之言），实际上新雨丝在大陆的影响力不够大，他们那帮新生代只知道什么“榕树”之类，没办法：
>
> ：我也有同感。甚至我连新语丝杂志都退订了。我觉得，以前散文是新语丝的
> 亮点，但去年以来，散文的水准下降很多，小说就更别提了。所以，今年我只
> 好退订了。
>
> 赋格是否还在写我不知道。我觉得，如果应帆把更多的精力用在写散文上，也许
> 会有好的收效。螳螂的散文我见的不多，而且我想他还是勤快的写小说的好，只
> 可惜他是越来越懒。筋斗云的散文也很有特色，可惜我见的不多。
>
> 以前的新语丝杂志，有赋格的散文，螳螂的小说，舟子的历史随笔，少君的文字，
> 这些都是比较好的。现在是什么样呢？我不知道。
>
>
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致
礼！
chali
chali@netease.com
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From: =?gb2312?q?Fan=20xiangchuan?= <naturef@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 关于赋格
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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>
“新生代”们基本都是不识愁滋味的少年，还是没什么学问的少年，还是没什么学问
>
且自以为是颗葱的少年。你让他们写，写什么啊？除了强作愁，还能写什么啊？
我觉得现在的学生有一些是很不错的.
这学期刚开学,正讲信息检索的重要性呢.
北京孩子对科研开发不一定很感兴趣,而往往有环保意识.
我一般从旅游,环保出发
开始讲."比如环保了"....一个孩子指着另一个说,"老师,他是环保协会的会长,给
图书馆建了一个绿色书架".我一听,太伟大了!
狠狠地夸了夸这种能想能干的行为,
第二次课就被争取为该会会员,交了10块钱:-).
另一个更有意思,半天不写自己以前查资料遇到的问题,我就开始启发,"你对什么比较
干兴趣啊?""炒股","炒股更需要信息资料了","没用,那些东西都没用.我炒股四年了,
资料积累了有这么多,有什么用?那些股评家都瞎掰"我想我是遇到高手了,没多言语.
下课以后,这孩子过来聊天,他从18岁2万块钱开始炒股,现在还剩十几万.他是我来学校
后遇见的第一个说学校里好老师很多的人,知青的孩子,非常孝顺父母.
唉,我写东西实在是太慢了,不能再写了.
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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At 00-9-20 9:11:00, tanglang wrote:
>我一看头就大了，根本不知从何入手。极限的公式也早忘光
>了。说起来当年在班里我还算数学学得比较好的。
>
不要害怕，不需要什么极限公式，你能列出一个递归公式
就基本上解出来了。
>筋斗的这个转换有误导之嫌，显然合适做夫妻的绝对不止一
>人，这和该题目的每人唯一的帽子不是一回事。意大利的天
>主教是不许离婚的，这倒可以套用。由此可见不许离婚是多
>么的不好，至少数学上就说不过去，e在那摆着呢，谁不许离
>婚，谁就是跟e过不去，谁就是和真理过不去。另外，若以后
>新语丝开办网络婚姻介绍，建议以e做LOGO，也让参加者有个
>心理准备。
>
螳螂赶紧开一家稻糠公司，就叫“eLove.com”：）
一华
>
>螳螂
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在 00-9-20 20:22:00 chali写道：
>赋格的东东，在哪里能看到？
赋格有两个网页，一个在geocities，具体地址我忘了，geocities全
被封了。还有一个在新语丝，http://www.xys.org/~fuge，新语丝
也被封了，所以，不用代理服务器是看不到的。
螳螂
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http://www.geocities.com/Tokyo/9998/fuge.html
这是格格的家页，希望大家不用服务器也能看到。:)
真扇子假扇子一看就看出来了。:)
伊可
--- tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 在 00-9-20 20:22:00 chali写道：
>
> >赋格的东东，在哪里能看到？
>
> 赋格有两个网页，一个在geocities，具体地址我忘了，geocities全
> 被封了。还有一个在新语丝，http://www.xys.org/~fuge，新语丝
> 也被封了，所以，不用代理服务器是看不到的。
>
> 螳螂
>
>
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看见今天女足输了，心里不太好受。提供两则花边新闻
轻松一下气氛：－）
第一条是说本届奥运会的“裸体”事件甚多，多半是由
泳装质量不过关引起。其中澳大利亚的女子水球赛打到
后来，差不多个个都半裸了，令观众大开眼界。不光是
女的，就连鱼雷泳将索普的泳装也裂了缝，据说位置相
当抢眼，到了足以能使一千四百万澳大利亚少女望梅止
渴一阵子的地步。
另一条说赤道几内亚为了参加奥运会，在国内举办了一
百米自由泳选拔赛，有三人报了名。其中两人没能游完
全程，未能入选国家队。剩下一名队员虽抱怨一百米
太长但由于坚持游完了全程，因而得以入选。他在当地
一条满是鳄鱼的河流里练了几次后就进军悉尼了。据说
他在预赛中因为速度之慢及后脚蹬起的水花之大而成了
名人。赛后去奥运村找他签名合影的人络绎不绝。不过
比起牙买加雪橇队来说，他的表现还算不错。据说上届
冬奥会时，由于牙买加雪橇队在国内从未见过雪为何物，
因而连比赛的雪橇也是到了当地后现买现练的。让观众
叹为观止。
本人这几天一直考虑是否移民赤道几内亚；因为本人该
做的都做过了，唯独无缘参加过奥运比赛。因而想在八
年后代表牙买加国家队出征北京：－）
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From fang@xys.org Thu Sep 21 07:42:39 2000 -0700
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Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 17:3:37 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-21 11:08:00 Michael Ma写道：
>我舅舅中风后下肢瘫痪已近10年，但其他情况都良好。半个多月前血压高，
>随后身体情况恶化，嗜睡，木衲，上肢也开始不能动，下肢感到酸疼难忍，
>去医院CT，验血，尿检,指标正常，不知寺里哪位医生知道这是什么情况？
>多谢!
>
>马儿
可能还是脑血管的问题，如果CT没发现问题，则出血性卒中的可能性不大，
缺血性卒中（梗阻、血栓）的早期CT可能看不到什么，缺血性卒中有个症
状比较典型，就是上肢重于下肢。因此，应该多从缺血性卒中考虑，早治疗
为好，CT也许到3-5天才出现异常，那就晚了。
我已不是医生，所以还是请真医生详细说明一下为好。
在 00-9-21 9:48:00 lxdrossi写道：
>…………一躺下就梦见你了,在听你在大会堂里上课。可我怎么也找不到
>一张好椅子，都是破旧不开，整个会场也一样。这是不是预兆着什么？
>我每次梦见你都是在破房子、破庙、破会场里？你解解这些梦。
我也不是心理学家，也试着解答一下。不知道那个“你”是否在这儿。：）
我相信他或者她对你比较重要。上课的“你”可归为你对对方的认识程度，
不知当时是怎么样的？好还是坏？破旧的场所大概是你对自己境遇的看法，
特别是与对方相处时的境遇。而此时的心情比梦到什么更重要。
螳螂
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>
> http://proxy.spaceproxy.com/-_-http://www.xys.org/new.html
> http://proxy.spaceproxy.com/
> 都连不上了，有两天了吧。
>
> 是不是基因库的事又惹了谁了？:-)
可能是那个代理服务器给封了。但是国内版应该还是可以连上的：
http://www.xys2.org/new.html
方舟子
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> http://www.geocities.com/Tokyo/9998/fuge.html
> 这是格格的家页，希望大家不用服务器也能看到。:)
做了个镜像。应该不用服务器也能看到。
http://fuge.china-forum.org/
> 真扇子假扇子一看就看出来了。:)
>
> 伊可
可不是吗？ ：）
天一
>
> --- tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> >
> > 在 00-9-20 20:22:00 chali写道：
> >
> > >赋格的东东，在哪里能看到？
> >
> > 赋格有两个网页，一个在geocities，具体地址我忘了，geocities全
> > 被封了。还有一个在新语丝，http://www.xys.org/~fuge，新语丝
> > 也被封了，所以，不用代理服务器是看不到的。
> >
> > 螳螂
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From: Fuzzify <fuzzify@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 概率题
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--- Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn> wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>
>
前些天这儿谈了一阵子概率，现在我找了道很有意思的题，有兴
> 趣的可以解一下：
>
>
聚会结束后尚剩六顶帽子，但帽主喝醉了，找不着存物牌，更认
>
不出自己的帽子。保管员无奈，让他们随便拿。结果六个人没一
> 个拿的是自己的帽子。请问这种情况发生的概率是多少？
>
>
把上题推广到普遍情况，N个人N顶帽子，每个人都拿了别人的帽
> 子，概率是多少？
>
> 答案五天后公布。
>
> 一华
>
Is it 1/N?
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Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 11:22:23 -0700 (PDT)
From: ban-shan yuan <banshan_yuan@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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>
如果人的结合是随机的，那么全世界的人全没对的概率是
> 多少？（假设只结一次婚）
>
>
> windover（筋斗云）
> windover@hotmail.com
Methinks your ideas are not very
compassionate,windover. It's sad that a man has no
choice but to take whoever sent by the throw of a
dice, it becomes depressing that he's got only one
chance. Not a good idea at all, dude.
Enough about men, let's look at the story of a woman,
She's real pretty and has an army of suitors. Being
a practical girl, she decided to interview them one by
one and pick the richest dude to marry.
Two problems though: (1) she didn't know how rich
the richest is nor the poorest, so she had no idea of
the range of their wealth distribution;
(2) the boys are not without dignity,as it happened
to be, they demanded that decision be made right there
on interview spot: once the boy show her the money,
she has to either take or reject him, no 2nd-thoughts,
tears of regrets, take-backs sort of business.
Naturally, as soon as she pick one, interview stops
and party shall begin.
Given these two limitations, it's not an easy task for
her. She can see them all only to find out she missed
the richest one earlier. By the way, she has to take
the last dude when it comes to that, no matter how
poor
he is.
If she wanted to maximize her chance to marry the
richest dude, (1) what's her best strategy ? (2)
what's her best odds of getting him? As to the number
of her suitors n, You can take any reasonable guesses,
say n=10. The limiting case of n goes to infinity is
always interesting of course.
-Banshan
PS.
This puzzle, better known as the game of Google, comes
from Martin Gardner's book. It maybe bad taste to
tell it as a marriage dilemma, but I was following
Windover's example, blame him if you have to.
PPS.
Why the transcendental number e often shows up when
n goes infinity?
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To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com> wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
好像有人没看见万教授的答案。底下的网页有这道题的证明，有兴趣的
可以前去一观：
http://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/Math148/notes/derange.html
作者说了，筋斗云的话也可反过来说：“全世界五十亿人至少有一个人
婚姻幸福的机率是６３％”。换个角度一看，心情马上就不一样了：）
虎子
俺连基本的机率公式和泰勒展开式都忘得精光了，数学这东西不练真的
是不行。：(
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From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
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Subject: [xys_friends] =?X-UNKNOWN?Q?Re=3A_=5Bxys=5Ffriends=5D_=BC=F2=D6=B1=CA=C7=D2=BB=B8?=
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On Thu, 21 Sep 2000, ban-shan yuan wrote:
> Enough about men, let's look at the story of a woman,
> She's real pretty and has an army of suitors. Being
> a practical girl, she decided to interview them one by
> one and pick the richest dude to marry.
> Two problems though: (1) she didn't know how rich
> the richest is nor the poorest, so she had no idea of
> the range of their wealth distribution;
> (2) the boys are not without dignity,as it happened
> to be, they demanded that decision be made right there
> on interview spot: once the boy show her the money,
> she has to either take or reject him, no 2nd-thoughts,
> tears of regrets, take-backs sort of business.
> Naturally, as soon as she pick one, interview stops
> and party shall begin.
>
> Given these two limitations, it's not an easy task for
> her. She can see them all only to find out she missed
> the richest one earlier. By the way, she has to take
> the last dude when it comes to that, no matter how
> poor
> he is.
>
> If she wanted to maximize her chance to marry the
> richest dude, (1) what's her best strategy ? (2)
> what's her best odds of getting him? As to the number
> of her suitors n, You can take any reasonable guesses,
> say n=10. The limiting case of n goes to infinity is
> always interesting of course.
>
Good post. I like the story. I posted this problem in 1993 on ACT (with a
different story) and went back to China afterwards. Don't know if anybody
answered that question. I planned to give my answer after I came back, but
ACT became intolerable very soon, and I quit it.
Anyway, for a better example, n should be a square number, such as 16, 25,
etc.
－－万精油－－
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 01:02:21 GMT
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>Methinks your ideas are not very
>compassionate,windover. It's sad that a man has no
>choice but to take whoever sent by the throw of a
>dice, it becomes depressing that he's got only one
>chance. Not a good idea at all, dude.
>
Blame it on those belivers.
Some people really belive there is only one soulmate.
the story goes like this:
Since men betrayed God, so God took away his soulmate
from him.
You can shoot(fxxk) around as many as you like, but
in the end , you can only choose one. It's pure luck
since we are blind by default by God.
Where is the phrase "Tie the knot" come from? Is it
come from chinese story?
The elder Moonman
windover（筋斗云）
windover@hotmail.com
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Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 10:14:42 +0800
From: Lov Sun <lovsun@21cn.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Re: Re: [xys_friends] =B8=C5=C2=CA=CC=E2?=
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hi, Fuzzify
我也认为是1/n，因为假设n-1人时，帽子不在主人头上的排列有f(n-1)，则n人时，这个排列数目应该为f(n-1)*(n-1),几率是
f(n-1)*(n-1)/n! = 1/n.
In 2000-09-21 上午 10:51:00 You wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>
>--- Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn> wrote:
>> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>>
>>
>>
>前些天这儿谈了一阵子概率，现在我找了道很有意思的题，有兴
>> 趣的可以解一下：
>聚会结束后尚剩六顶帽子，但帽主喝醉了，找不着存物牌，更认
>不出自己的帽子。保管员无奈，让他们随便拿。结果六个人没一
>> 个拿的是自己的帽子。请问这种情况发生的概率是多少？
>>把上题推广到普遍情况，N个人N顶帽子，每个人都拿了别人的帽
>> 子，概率是多少？
>>
>> 答案五天后公布。
>>
>> 一华
>>
>
>Is it 1/N?
>
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From: Lov Sun <lovsun@21cn.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Re: Re: Re: [xys_friends] =B8=C5=C2=CA=CC=E2?=
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
hi, Lov Sun
少算一种情况，忘了把有且只有一个人带对帽子的情况算上了：fn = (n-1)(f(n-1)+f(n-2))
In 2000-09-22 上午 10:14:00 You wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>hi, Fuzzify
>
> 我也认为是1/n，因为假设n-1人时，帽子不在主人头上的排列有f(n-1)，则n人时，这个排列数目应该为f(n-1)*(n-1),几率是
>f(n-1)*(n-1)/n! = 1/n.
>
>
>In 2000-09-21 上午 10:51:00 You wrote:
>>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>>
>>
>>--- Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn> wrote:
>>> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>前些天这儿谈了一阵子概率，现在我找了道很有意思的题，有兴
>>> 趣的可以解一下：
>>聚会结束后尚剩六顶帽子，但帽主喝醉了，找不着存物牌，更认
>>不出自己的帽子。保管员无奈，让他们随便拿。结果六个人没一
>>> 个拿的是自己的帽子。请问这种情况发生的概率是多少？
>>>把上题推广到普遍情况，N个人N顶帽子，每个人都拿了别人的帽
>>> 子，概率是多少？
>>>
>>> 答案五天后公布。
>>>
>>> 一华
>>>
>>
>>Is it 1/N?
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From: "R. Zhang" <rzhang_00@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 我为什么想移民几内亚
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 比起牙买加雪橇队来说，他的表现还算不错。据说上届
> 冬奥会时，由于牙买加雪橇队在国内从未见过雪为何物，
> 因而连比赛的雪橇也是到了当地后现买现练的。让观众
> 叹为观止。
这事我在电视上看过，不过拍成了电影，还挺逗。有多少是真
的就不得而知了。
Ron
--- yige <yige@mediaone.net> wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 看见今天女足输了，心里不太好受。提供两则花边新闻
> 轻松一下气氛：－）
>
> 第一条是说本届奥运会的“裸体”事件甚多，多半是由
> 泳装质量不过关引起。其中澳大利亚的女子水球赛打到
> 后来，差不多个个都半裸了，令观众大开眼界。不光是
> 女的，就连鱼雷泳将索普的泳装也裂了缝，据说位置相
> 当抢眼，到了足以能使一千四百万澳大利亚少女望梅止
> 渴一阵子的地步。
>
> 另一条说赤道几内亚为了参加奥运会，在国内举办了一
> 百米自由泳选拔赛，有三人报了名。其中两人没能游完
> 全程，未能入选国家队。剩下一名队员虽抱怨一百米
> 太长但由于坚持游完了全程，因而得以入选。他在当地
> 一条满是鳄鱼的河流里练了几次后就进军悉尼了。据说
> 他在预赛中因为速度之慢及后脚蹬起的水花之大而成了
> 名人。赛后去奥运村找他签名合影的人络绎不绝。不过
> 比起牙买加雪橇队来说，他的表现还算不错。据说上届
> 冬奥会时，由于牙买加雪橇队在国内从未见过雪为何物，
> 因而连比赛的雪橇也是到了当地后现买现练的。让观众
> 叹为观止。
>
> 本人这几天一直考虑是否移民赤道几内亚；因为本人该
> 做的都做过了，唯独无缘参加过奥运比赛。因而想在八
> 年后代表牙买加国家队出征北京：－）
>
>
>
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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1/N的答案显然是错的。
虎子说：“全世界五十亿人至少有一个人婚姻幸福的机率是63%。”
可是，对某一个人来说，他是这个幸运者的概率却是1/50亿：）
我那道题是从Martin Gardner选编的Sam Loyd趣题书里看来的。
最近借了两本书在解题，这题我解得比较得意，就贴上来了。
我的解法很简洁。有兴趣的朋友可以再想想，我提示一下，先列
出一个递推公式，可以是如下形式：
D(n)=f(n)*D(n-1)+g(n)*D(n-2)
其中f(n)和g(n)是n的代数式，是很简单的分式。能得出这么一
个递推式，后面就只是一个简单的代数运算问题了。
一华
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Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 22:40:10 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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这个问题我最早是在八十年代初的一期《科学画报》上看到的，
被称作“秘书问题”。要招聘一个秘书，应聘者有N个，逐个面
试太费时间精力。最佳方案是：
先逐个面试其中的N/e个，一个也不录取，但记住其中最佳者的
情况。然后开始面试剩下的人，一旦有一个超过前N/e个人里的
最佳者即停止面试，秘书就是她了。比如有100个应聘者，100
除以e约为37。因此可随机编号，先面试1到37号并立即打发走，
然后面试38、39……一旦找到一个比前37人强的就结了。
因此这问题又叫“停止问题”。八七年《青年文摘》也出了这
题，把内容说成是选择对象了。
据说这样挑选，挑到最佳者的概率很大且效率最高。我至今没
搞明白这N/e是怎么来的，万教授能否给讲讲？如果最佳者在前
N/e之中呢？实际操作中是否该把标准降到一旦有一个人与前面
的最佳者“相当”即停止？
一华
At 00-9-21 11:22:00, ban-shan yuan wrote:
>Enough about men, let's look at the story of a woman,
>She's real pretty and has an army of suitors. Being
>a practical girl, she decided to interview them one by
>one and pick the richest dude to marry.
>Two problems though: (1) she didn't know how rich
>the richest is nor the poorest, so she had no idea of
>the range of their wealth distribution;
>(2) the boys are not without dignity,as it happened
>to be, they demanded that decision be made right there
>on interview spot: once the boy show her the money,
>she has to either take or reject him, no 2nd-thoughts,
>tears of regrets, take-backs sort of business.
>Naturally, as soon as she pick one, interview stops
>and party shall begin.
>
>Given these two limitations, it's not an easy task for
>her. She can see them all only to find out she missed
>the richest one earlier. By the way, she has to take
>the last dude when it comes to that, no matter how
>poor
>he is.
>
>If she wanted to maximize her chance to marry the
>richest dude, (1) what's her best strategy ? (2)
>what's her best odds of getting him? As to the number
>of her suitors n, You can take any reasonable guesses,
>say n=10. The limiting case of n goes to infinity is
>always interesting of course.
>
>
>-Banshan
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To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: [xys_friends] =?X-UNKNOWN?Q?Re=3A_=5Bxys=5Ffriends=5D_=BC=F2=D6=B1=CA=C7=D2=BB=B8?=
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On Fri, 22 Sep 2000, Zhou Yihua wrote:
> 据说这样挑选，挑到最佳者的概率很大且效率最高。我至今没
> 搞明白这N/e是怎么来的，万教授能否给讲讲？如果最佳者在前
No, I can't explain, because it is wrong.
N/e is not a good choise at all. You can easily verify this by a
simulation (with a program of course).
The correct number should be floor(sqrt(N)-1). A good exercise is to
explain why.
－－万精油－－, now you know why I want square numbers.
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] =?X-UNKNOWN?Q?Re=3A_=5Bxys=5Ffriends=5D_=BC=F2=D6=B1=CA=C7=D2=BB=B8?=
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On Fri, 22 Sep 2000, Zhiping You wrote:
> No, I can't explain, because it is wrong.
>
> N/e is not a good choise at all. You can easily verify this by a
> simulation (with a program of course).
>
> The correct number should be floor(sqrt(N)-1). A good exercise is to
> explain why.
>
Thinking about this problem while I was running on the road before lunch,
I realized that sometimes ceil(sqrt(N)-1) is better than floor(sqrt(N)-1).
Depends on N.
－－万精油－－, have to be careful.
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Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 12:57:50 -0700 (PDT)
From: ban-shan yuan <banshan_yuan@yahoo.com>
Subject: [xys_friends] The game of googol
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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--- Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com> wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> On Fri, 22 Sep 2000, Zhou Yihua wrote:
>
> >
>
据说这样挑选，挑到最佳者的概率很大且效率最高。我至今没
> >
>
搞明白这N/e是怎么来的，万教授能否给讲讲？如果最佳者在前
>
> No, I can't explain, because it is wrong.
>
> N/e is not a good choise at all. You can easily
> verify this by a
> simulation (with a program of course).
>
> The correct number should be floor(sqrt(N)-1). A
> good exercise is to
> explain why.
>
> －－万精油－－, now you know why I want square
> numbers.
>
Well, Say you reject the first p guys, 1/e is the
ratio of p/n, as n -> inf.
Hope someone here can work out a proof, in the mean
time, please check the following naive code, as an
emperical verification:
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <math.h>
#include <stdio.h>
#define IMAX(x,y) (((x)<(y)) ? (y):(x))
#define SWAP(x,y) {(x)^=(y);(y)^=(x);(x)^=(y);}
void
rand_shuf(int n, int *a)
{ /* uniformly random shuff a */
int i;
for ( i = 0; i < n; ++i ) a[i] = i;
for ( i = 0; i < n; ++i ) {
int ran = i + random()%(n-i);
SWAP(a[i], a[ran]);
}
}
#define SMN 4
#define BGN 4000
#define TRN 10000
int
main ()
{
int a[BGN];
int n, j, k;
for ( n = SMN; n <= BGN; n += (n>10) ? 97 : 1 ) {
int best = n-1;
int p = n/M_E; /* sqrt(n) - 1; */
int hit = 0;
int count = 0;
for (; count < TRN; ++count ) {
int ref = 0;
rand_shuf(n, a);
for ( j = 0; j <p; ++j)
ref = IMAX(ref, a[j]);
if ( ref < best ) {
for ( j = p; j < n; ++j )
if ( a[j] > ref ) break;
if ( a[j] == best ) ++hit;
}
}
printf("%d, %f\n", n, hit*M_E/count);
fflush(stdout);
}
}
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From: "Dan Windover" <windover@hotmail.com>
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] The game of googol
Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 21:01:01 GMT
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> > No, I can't explain, because it is wrong.
> >
> > N/e is not a good choise at all. You can easily
> > verify this by a
> > simulation (with a program of course).
> >
> >
The Puzzle's FAQ's answer is N/e.
As for the program, there is no chance of swap in
the original question. Better ask Yihua for a more
detail explanation on the question.
windover（筋斗云）
windover@hotmail.com
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Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 17:24:15 -0400 (EDT)
From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] The game of googol
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On Fri, 22 Sep 2000, ban-shan yuan wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> Well, Say you reject the first p guys, 1/e is the
> ratio of p/n, as n -> inf.
>
>From your program, I realized that we are talking about two different
problems. The problem I have in mind is to maximize the gain, assume the
value of the rich people are from 1 to 100, marry the No.15 you get 15,
marry the No.57 you get 57 etc. You problem is to maximize the chance of
marry the richest guy only (which is not practical :), so, it is
considered a failure even if you marry the No. 99 guy (which is the second
richest guy).
I got the wrong impression because in your original post, you said she
has to marry the last guy even if he's the poorest. What's the point of
that if you only want to count 'marry the top guy' as success.
Once again, to maximize the gain, ceil or floor of (sqrt(n)-1) is the
number to pick.
To maximize the chance of marry the top guy, I believe the number to pick
is N/e.
－－万精油－－, need to be really careful.
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Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 14:59:02 -0700 (PDT)
From: ban-shan yuan <banshan_yuan@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] The game of googol
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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--- Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com> wrote:
> From your program, I realized that we are talking
> about two different
> problems.
Well, in my defense, I did state in the original that
"maximize her chance to marry the richest dude" as the
condition.
Anyway, I'm glad this thing's been sorted out. Yet
another example that mathematics(and/or computer code)
communicates better than human language. :-)
And it's nice we have two puzzles to solve now,
buy one and get one free, as they say.
-BanShan
P.S. Windover, Don't quite get what you said about
"swap" things, care to drop me a few lines of
equations or codes so I can understand better?
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From: "minghy minghy" <mudhuy@hotmail.com>
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Subject: [xys_friends] 从女英雄到阎惜娇
Date: Sat, 23 Sep 2000 14:01:31 CST
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从女英雄到阎惜娇
作为一个粗糙浅陋的现代人，近一两年来，我却开始对京剧，特别是昆曲产生了一定的兴趣。这真是一件有趣的事情。传统戏曲到现代的式微是可以想见的，潮流讲究的快节奏、即兴娱乐，都与传统文化的精致、慢工背道而驰。我就不敢说我可以耐着性子把一出戏从头看到尾---实在是累呀！
当年的国学家对白话诗不屑一顾不以为然，老实说，我这个逐渐开始喜爱传统戏曲的现代人也对中国的“话剧”相当失望。话剧在今日的中国已经成了完全孤立、脱离群众的阳春白雪（不信你问问你周围有几个去看话剧的，说不得人家会用异样的眼光看你呢），这太失败了。而实际上中国人搞话剧的成就，至今更不敢令人恭维了，除了当年一批精益求精的老演员，除了《茶馆》、《雷雨》那几出数得着的名剧，总的说来，中国没出过几部象样的话剧，和英、德没法相提并论。
传统的戏曲，讲究的是唱、念、做多项全能，这比歌剧表现形式还要更丰富。我在看戏（不幸都是电视里）的时候，由衷地感到古人思维的精妙，那么多复杂繁复的工夫真弄不明白他们是怎么发明出来的，让我这个后辈五体投地无话可说。可惜吾生晚矣，没赶上四大名旦风华绝代冠盖京华的年代。
传统剧种中尽是些低眉顺眼的良家妇女：象薛平贵寒窑里的妻（要我说，真是走眼嫁错了郎，大丈夫气概又有什么用，不是说妻子如衣服吗）、《锁麟囊》（很奇怪，央视似乎特别偏爱这出戏，五次三番地轮着放它）里的那个小姐，举手投足都是依足程式来做，时时不忘恪守妇道，看久了难免气闷。其中的哀怨与辛酸，却不是我这个局外人所能体会的。典型的例子是《孔雀东南飞》，那婆婆许是年轻的时候受尽了自己婆婆的气，一朝自己熬成了婆，始变本加厉地折磨起刘兰芝---不独中国，阿信当年也是何等地忍气吞声呢。所不同处是阿信不愧是个坚强独立的女性，最后婆婆居然需要投靠于她了，可怜刘兰芝不可能经济独立男女平等，注定了悲惨的命运等着。
所谓比较具有反抗精神的，大概《西厢记》里的可人儿莺莺小姐算是一个。不过我很同意看过的一则评论，就是《游园惊梦》的故事，其境界和一般的戏曲故事相比，有它的特别与超脱之处。惊梦到今天为什么还会有这么大的魅力？这不是没有原因的，丽娘并没有具体的人和事要反抗，却在伤春中郁郁而死，最后又在花神的簇围下与柳梦梅重逢，这其中瑰丽的想象，作者独特的对个人精神追求的强调，都已经超越了一般的具体而微的故事型的传统戏曲了。怪道怡红公子和林妹妹都看地入迷呢。所以它可以说绝不仅仅是用“才子佳人”式的爱情故事就能概括的。
到现在为止，我向您介绍的这些女子都是传统教育的产物，其气质，也都还是相当温良恭俭让的。所以我说她们看多了不免让人气闷。我今儿想要向您提起的，却是两个反例。
头一个是《儿女英雄传》里的何玉凤，哈，我看京戏最擅长对百无一用的秀才书生极尽挪揄之能事了，我常常看到他们在舞台上不遗余力地表现自己的种种丑态。就象这个安公子，肩不能挑手不能提，想搬个石凳，可惜手无缚鸡之力，把个何玉凤在旁看地直乐。安公子后来对女大王面露惊恐之色，对她的问话（从哪里来、姓甚名谁），自以为聪明地捏造了一番，却即刻被十三妹（何应该就是十三妹吧）揭穿了。最后她提出要一路护送这个孝子，可怜的安公子这才高叫起女英雄之类的感激的言语。
十三妹英姿飒爽，果然有不让须眉的气势。在这场戏里，处于主宰地位的很明显的是这位行侠丈义的女中丈夫---她感念安公子是个孝子，决定挺身而出。我之注意到她正是因为她在戏中的这种主动性。不过，传统美德的力量是强大的，《儿女英雄传》我虽没看过，印象中是二女共事一夫，也就是说，何小姐最终把自己也给双手奉上了。
江湖人士毕竟是江湖人士，最终还是要接受士大夫的教化！否则就不够圆满了。
比之何玉凤，我觉得阎惜娇这个人物要更特别，更具有典型性。熟悉《水浒》的观众对阎惜娇（也就是阎婆惜）这个名字自然也印象深刻，那可是当作反面人物来表现的。不过对于现代的观众来说，不独潘金莲，阎惜娇其实也是可圈可点，不是宋公明那所谓：贱人、淫妇的称呼就能概括的。《乌龙院》是一出非常精彩的戏，高潮迭起，外行（我就是）要看热闹，这一出就最好。
要说到乌龙院，就不能光拣阎惜娇出来品头论足，没有及时雨宋江（事先声明我可是三国盲水浒盲），就不可能有后来杀惜的故事。《乌龙院》我以前瞧过几眼，正是那戏的开头，宋江来找阎惜娇（也就是他养的外室），她正和相好的（张文元？说是宋江的徒弟）在一起，赶紧偷偷摸摸地把他藏了起来。然后，她开始一五一十、嬉笑怒骂地与宋江唇枪舌剑起来。我为什么要说她特别呢，就是因为她那种大胆泼辣的作风在传统舞台上表现出来很是醒目。我在这次看《乌龙院》之前就看过黄裳对水浒人物的系列评论，其中也提到了《乌龙院》（又名《坐楼杀惜》，说阎惜娇只是个二十出头的小女子，和张文元相好是抱着十足天真的憧憬，
并不是那种老于世故的妇人，所以仅以泼辣的情调去表现她是不恰当的。同样是外行，我哪敢在经验丰富的黄裳他老人家面前“耍大刀”，但我只能根据我所看到的版本去谈谈这个人物和这出戏了。
本戏之精彩，是恰倒好处地循着戏剧发展的轨迹，一步一步发展下来的。宋公明走在去乌龙院的路上就听到人们议论纷纷（师徒二人往一条路上走），满心的不快。宋江最折服人的地方就是他的“义”，然而在阎婆惜问题上充分体现的，还是他的黄裳所谓的“伪善”。阎惜娇不过是他供养的玩物，他可以在一定程度上容忍甚至娇纵她，因为她的“可爱”、可供玩味，但是她不能触到他那根筋，她不应该撕破他的脸和他对着干，要知道，他是最“要脸”的。
他提出，他在路上闻听一些很难听的话。阎惜娇让他直说出来，他说了一半就打住了，促使他闭嘴的，是那种“你不要脸我还要脸”的道貌岸然的心态。作为自己手心里的玩物，他自认对她还是有一定感情的。所以在外面尽管听说了丑闻，他还是希望她今后检点一些，那么他睁一只眼闭一只眼也就过往不究了----显然，他对她并没有什么“爱情”。
阎惜娇心态不同，她是他用“三十两银子”买来的，对他也不可能谈的上有什么爱。依我看，她果真还是很天真的。当她与相好的亲热被宋江打断之际，她在他面前不但没有收敛（就是一般的那种低眉顺眼的盲从），反而针尖对麦芒---对着干了起来。
她逼问宋江，张文元和谁私通？---宋公明脸上有些挂不住了，她又说：难道是跟你私通？
诶，哪有男人与男人私通的道理！
不是和我私通，也不是和你，那是和谁？....（顿了顿），我告诉你吧，和张文元私通的----是你的娘！（注：黄裳文中提到的版本她说的是和你的姐、和你的妹！）
宋公明坐不住了，面色一沉，天大的脾气发了出来。这是可以想象的，阎惜娇这小妞太不解事也太不象话了，这还了得？！！
你不要以为宋公明先生真是那么有原则，他的气愤主要还是因为阎惜娇的大胆泼辣，超出了他的控制。这时候宋先生气地哆嗦，欲与阎惜娇干仗，在这里，他们两人同时作出了各式的身段---他怎样，她也怎样，一点也不退让的。
宋江骂她是淫妇，阎惜娇可没那么听话，她喊到：我要是淫妇，你就是个嫖客！
我几乎要为阎惜娇拍案叫好了，她哪来这么大的胆儿？是勇敢，还是是昏了头了？
我想，阎惜娇应该是真爱张文元的，她在把宋公明气走之后立马就把张文元喊出来问话：你是想和我做长久夫妻呢，还是短的---这就和潘金莲的故事有相似之处了。阎惜娇听闻宋江私通梁山，怂恿张文元找出他这一面的把柄告官。
不要说爱了，阎惜娇对宋江还有没有一点感情？就算有，那一点点稀薄的感恩之情，只不过是在她和宋江夜半互动杀机的时候冒了个头。那么我可以断言，阎惜娇对于宋江这个自己的买主，基本上是只有厌恶的。宋江是否值得她的感恩？基本上，宋江也是不配的。因为他从来就没有真正尊重过她的感情---对他来说，恐怕她这种外室（连妾都不是）是不配谈什么感情的。
宋江被阎惜娇惹恼了，发誓：从今后再也不进乌龙院（他花钱藏她的金屋），再进就被将来药酒毒死（...）。戏到此处，阎惜娇是一点都不后悔的，她只一心想摆脱他。宋江不然。花钱买罪受，他宋大爷替自己不值起来，他在门口数次反复，折回身行想重进门去（还是有点舍不得），最终高唱我宋公明不来，看有哪个敢来！而后，灰溜溜跑了。
之后是宋江和水泊梁山智取生辰刚的好汉（一个大花脸，我不认识）意外碰面。我得说，这个扮宋江的演员表情、身段表现都十分了得（压过了阎惜娇），看的我目不转睛。他几次和对方说到你是---哦----你是，几次都并没真将对方认出来，把观众给看乐了。他的种种哑剧动作都博得了观众的阵阵掌声。
这次见面为后来的杀惜埋下了一个伏笔，宋江随身的“讨饭口袋”里，多了一锭金子和一封梁山首领晁盖的来信。
下一幕，老旦（阎惜娇的老娘）在路上叫住了宋江，并把他带回了家。老旦深知宋江得罪不起（地方上有头有脸的人物），连哄带骗地吩咐女儿敷衍宋先生。可两个人都不肯让步，兼且拿她出气。
哎，我真是糊涂，夫妻哪有隔夜的愁，睡上一觉，不就什么事都没有了！
老旦充分发挥了她老年人的智慧常谈，把两人一先一后推上楼，且把门给关上了。
二更、三更、四更，已是山雨欲来风满楼了。两人各坐一椅，每隔一更，其中一个停止了瞌睡，看着对面的昔日枕边人，展开了循序渐进的心路变化。
先是：念对方当初的情分，我欲上前与他（她）亲热，转念，挥袖退回。
既而：看对方那个不知好歹、没人性的样儿，我欲上前将他（她）杀，转念，三思而后行，退回。
故事讲到这里，伴着隐隐的鼓声，已开始预示着高潮的来临。
办大事的人，未必个个心细如发，宋公明胳膊里夹着他看的极紧要的要饭口袋去开门，半天打不开，情急之下用力---口袋掉在了地下，他不知觉，走了。
然后是阎惜娇醒来并发现了口袋和口袋里的秘密，得意非凡，这一段略过不表。
之后便传来了宋先生的一路哀号----口袋丢了！要是被那婆娘拣到，那还了得？
这之上，演员抖髯、趔趄，惶惶如丧家之犬，通过各种身段生动地表现出人物的焦虑。
他上楼、进屋，疑虑再三，叫醒了阎惜娇，开始和她旁敲侧击，既而正面谈判。
宋江不是个莽汉，他并不会随便杀人，对于阎惜娇，他是一忍再忍、实出于不得已的。阎逼他写休书，他不肯，因为对方根本非妻非妾，不得以同意了；阎要他写休的是妻（非妾），他也被迫从了；最可悲的，是阎此时被胜利冲昏了头脑，居然逼他续写：改嫁张文元为妻。这大大地伤了他的自尊了，他暴跳，阎还是那一句：不写？成，我下楼睡觉去了。
宋江的容忍极限被阎惜娇一而再地挑战，到目前为止，终于无可奈何，样样都依了她。
常言道：见好就收。可惜阎惜娇就是不明白这个理儿，按说，她的目的完全都达到了，此时不收蓬更待何时？可惜，她没有。
这是一个“淫妇”的狠毒无耻吧，也许她所做的一切都不符合道德规范，索性给她多添条罪。
于是，得意洋洋的阎惜娇宣布：信，我会给你，不过不是现在，是在公堂之上。
这话一出，阎惜娇算是死定了。她也不想想，宋公明可真是个窝窝囊囊的人物？在紧锣密鼓下，宋江气急败坏，又打跌又浑身发抖，终于在忍无可忍之下拔出了尖刀。
杀惜是出妙戏，从此知道了。阎惜娇长了根反骨，真真比什么女侠出位多了。
泥
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抽空写上一篇，还望寺里的围棋高手多指点，也望文字高手多批评。：）
螳螂
棋斗
棋院茶社的空调开得并不是很足，但足以抵挡屋外的酷热。这里的
棋手与专业棋手不同，很少有人拿折扇，多是一杯浓茶在握。台湾来的
陈老板手中的折扇是稀罕之物，不用打开，也看得出名贵。棋手中有认
得陈老板的，要过他的扇子，细细打量。
除了棋手，茶社中还有很多送孩子来棋院学棋的家长，三三两两地
散开，有的看电视上的棋评，有的看棋手下棋，也有的租了棋盘，互相
对弈一番。若找棋手下棋，是要交对局费的。陈老板这种，工作之余，
来棋院找高手切磋，局费一般要给得多些。
肥壮如牛的陈老板看来不是一般的业余爱好者，与棋手下棋，可以分
先，虽然输多赢少，总比那些陪太子读书的家长强许多。有家长找陈老
板下棋，下到孩子散课，已被让到四子。陈老板笑着说："你要付局费
给我。"当然，这是玩笑话。陈老板四十多岁，却是茶社里穿着最打眼的，
大花的T-shirt，脖子上的金链条有小指头般粗；而且为人大方，高级
香烟就扔在桌子上，谁抽都行。
陈老板找到胡子，说要请教，胡子很爽快地答应了。胡子年届四十，
身材瘦高，唇上一抹小胡子修得整整齐齐，是棋院茶社的第一高手，对
局费自然是最高的。常有家长领着十二、三岁已是业余二、三段的孩子
来找胡子讨教，胡子边下边讲，说些"中腹守空如寡妇守寡，守不守得
住在一念之间，能不守就不守"之类的话，傍边围的一大帮人，年轻的
棋手和看热闹的家长，便哈哈一笑。本地主要有三个业余围棋高手云集
的地方，棋院茶社，钢厂俱乐部，和两江公园花鸟市场的棋社。据说，
棋院茶社的高手最多，说胡子是本地业余围棋界的第一高手，并不过分。
陈老板坐了下来，跟胡子说在台湾下指导棋，是按子算的。胡子知
道陈老板的意思是想先对子下，点了点头说没问题。陈说每子十元好了。
胡子一摆手，说那就请吧。陈老板啪的一个黑子就敲在了右上角。
一些闲着的棋手围了过来，说说笑笑，有的甚至伸手在棋盘上点划，
评点旧步，胡子也不在意，有时还说上两句，意思是陈老板此步并无大
错。
很快就进入中盘，陈老板布局时在几个定式上吃了些亏，中盘时却
令人刮目相看，七扭八拧，竟追了上来。胡子棋下得有些保守，不过依
然保持着微弱优势。收官时，就看得出胡子的功力的确不同凡响，仗着
厚势，猛捞便宜。一局终了，陈老板竟输了九子。其实，能跟胡子对子
下，这个结果也算不错了。恐怕胡子自己也没有想到陈老板的中盘战力
这么强。几个棋手对中腹的一个变化有疑问，复了下盘，说若胡子不是
那么保守，应当赢二十子以上。胡子辩解说穷寇莫追，否则一个变化走
错，今天掏钱的就是他了。
陈老板歇了口气，打开折扇扇了几下，并没有因为输棋而懊恼，反
而有点高兴的样子，说让两子吧，按子赌局，每子一百。胡子迟疑了一
下，还是答应了。
这一局双方都下得很慢，几个看热闹的家长耐不住，跑去看电视；
刚才插话的那几个棋手也因找到对局者而离开。围观的人只有三两个，
多少显得有点清净。因为是让子，胡子在布局阶段走了个不常见的定式，
陈老板似乎早有准备，扭着不放，虽然在局部吃了些亏，但构起了厚势，
有成大空的可能。胡子却不紧不慢。两人各走各的，与刚才的激战相反，
谁也不去招惹对方。围观的人里有个棋手，微微摇头，对胡子这套棋路
不以为然。其实，胡子的战法很有道理，陈老板很快就耐不住了，利用
厚势对胡子的阵地发动猛攻。这正中了圈套，恨人空大是业余棋手常见
的毛病，真一板一眼地围下去，胡子的空未必比他的大。陈老板应该仗
着让子之利，逼胡子先出手才对。胡子开始反攻，陈老板左突右冲，妙
手连发，硬是在胡子的虚空里搞活了一快，但付出的代价也够大了，胡
子的虚势都被撞实，又连抢了几个大官子，收小官时，也刮去不少，最
终以两子半赢下此局。
陈老板脸色发红，显然对失败耿耿于怀。以他的功力，即便跟专业
高手对局，被让两子也不是没有赢棋的可能。此次输给胡子，主要是因
为耐不住性子，打入的子被逼着做活，以致收官上吃了大亏。
胡子猛喝了几口茶，把掉在身上的烟灰掸去，问陈老板："你在台
湾是什么水平？"陈老板苦笑着说："我没段位，但跟九品的棋手下过，
有赢有输。"台湾的专业棋手级别按品分，一品最高，相当于九段，九
品则相当于专业初段。胡子笑着说："你若赢，都是中盘取胜，棋下到
收官，肯定就是输棋。"
陈老板点头称是，问胡子的段位，胡子说曾拿过业余五段的证书。
几个下完棋的年轻棋手又围了过来，问结果。胡子简单地在棋盘上比画
了几下，自认赢得比较险。若是专业对局，两子就是大输赢了，胡子说
赢得比较险，是指陈老板的策略有问题。围观的人开起了玩笑，说胡子
若在台湾，怕是能拿一品。陈老板的脸色不甚好看，怏怏而去。
隔了两天，陈老板又来了，身后跟着个戴眼镜的年轻人，交了茶社
的门票后，径直向胡子的棋桌而来。胡子正与人下棋，抬头看见陈老板，
打了声招呼。与胡子下棋的是附近一个饭店的小老板，常来茶社下棋。
小老板有个毛病，爱指手画脚，但棋力甚差。胡子让他六子，下到后头，
整个棋盘上已看不到几块黑子，小老板还不肯认输，赖着磨时间，胡子
不耐烦，干脆不看棋盘，跟陈老板聊了起来。
陈老板介绍身旁的眼镜，说眼镜是钢厂新来不久的大学生，以前是
外地某大学的围棋冠军。胡子"唔"了一声，问眼镜认不认得谁谁。胡子
说的人都是在钢厂俱乐部下棋的几个高手，眼镜说不认识，他才来一年，
没怎么去过俱乐部。陈老板说他跟钢厂谈生意时偶然认识了眼镜，听说
他会下棋，就手谈了几局，觉得眼镜确实厉害，就引见过来，想跟胡子
切磋切磋。
胡子明白，陈老板输了棋，心里多少有点不服气，那天围观的人说
了些话，让陈老板脸上挂不住，找个人来是想出口气。其实，这种情况
也曾有过，前些年花鸟棋社有位高手，听人传言说胡子讲他如何如何，
一气之下，找上门来，要与胡子大战十局。胡子当年年轻气盛，连赢四
盘，令对手不敢再来，甚至从此不在本地的棋社出现。
胡子仔细看了看眼镜，本地大学联赛的冠军也曾找他"切磋"过，不
过尔尔，想眼镜上的大学不是很出名，冠军的棋力未必就高。胡子划乱
棋盘，跟小老板说这局不算了，让他起身。小老板嘀咕了几句，站了起
来。眼镜坐了下来，很客气，说久仰老师大名，特来请教。胡子问眼镜
几段，眼镜说拿过专业一段。胡子微微一笑，说那你看怎么下，我没有
专业段位的。
陈老板打断胡子的话，说："按局算，我押五百，你押三百，就五局
如何？"胡子一下子愣在那里。陈老板明摆着来挑衅，未免也太直了。胡
子眯着眼睛，说："先各押五百吧，你持黑。"陈老板想解释几句，胡子却
不望他，直盯着眼镜。眼镜手里抓了一大把黑棋，正准备请胡子猜先，见
胡子生了气，只好拈出一颗黑子，打在右上的星位，手里的棋也不好放回
棋罐，就这么捧着。
胡子的第一颗白子竟下在了目外，眼镜二连星，胡子又是一个目外。
眼镜以三连星布局，却并不走宇宙流的路子，很早地打入胡子的角地，
几个回合下来，胡子的目外布局在实地上吃了些亏。眼镜看似文静，棋却
下得野，四处闹事，胡子却不着急，很稳地挂角拆边，该补就补，着着本
手。胡子的棋路在茶社的业余强手中很是独特，就是专业味十足，极少大
杀大砍，属后发制人的那种，看起来不甚过瘾。眼镜则是东一榔头，西一
棒子，根本不象个高手，可下得久了，才知道眼镜的算力实在惊人，着法
看似无理，却拿他不住，每每恰好一步就位。
然而胡子业余第一高手的名声也不是白给的，他的着法虽然不很凌厉，
却给眼镜散在各处的棋块以极大的压力。很快，眼镜竟然在捞了几个便宜
后，局势大好，但很快就开始为那些小便宜付出代价，一条大龙不死不活，
很是难堪，好不容易逃了出来，却被割去一条尾巴。
棋局终了，胡子以一目半取胜。
胡子赢了棋，脸色却凝重。输了棋的眼镜，年轻的脸上微微泛着红色，
有些不好意思，但神情却是兴奋。第一局，双方都在摸底。眼镜看上去已
有段日子没摸棋了，路数生疏，能拼到点目，已是不易。胡子虽赢了此局，
却是费了真力，先前他小看了眼镜，此时才知道遇到了高手。胡子在茶社
浸润多年，下指导棋只是一说，其实大多是赌局。胡子靠下棋为生，对付
陈老板这样的下手很有一套，赢多少都是心里有数，比如第一二局可让对
方感到自己还有实力，输了只是有些地方没注意到，于是要扳回，赌局的
价码也可越加越大。陈老板比一般的爱好者要强，但毕竟不是以此为生的，
胡子早就明白，陈其实是被让三子的水平，他原以为陈老板还会来找他，
如果再提出让三子来赌局，他则可大捞一把。谁想陈老板竟找了个人来。
以前从没听说过本地有这号人物，一个在明处，一个在暗处，弄不好就要
吃亏。钱上面倒是小事，名声则是输不起的。棋以胜负决算，胡子在业余
圈里厮杀多年，多少名震一时的高手败在他的手下，江湖险恶，若此次落
败，还不知道有多少人在等着看笑话。胡子开始有些后悔，当时恼怒陈老
板的无理，未及细想，连对手的底都没摸，便应承下来，实在不智，可事
到如今，也只有拼下去了。
陈老板不懂得这些，只对输赢感兴趣，却不知这种输赢对胡子意味着
什么。陈老板本想第二天再下的，胡子却说再来一局。胡子想再试试眼镜
的棋力。
第二局开始，胡子持白，第一着依然是一个目外。眼镜也不去守另一
个角，而是直接打入。战火很快就燃了起来。胡子一反长态，金戈铁马，
硬刀硬枪。眼镜却是象在打猴拳，四处乱窜，不时来偷袭一把。胡子计算
力并不弱，下指导棋时，有的棋看上去保守，只不过是为了掉对方的胃口，
但跟低手下棋多了，多少影响了力战的功力。眼镜古灵精怪，似乎对这种
棋路更为适应。几番缠斗下来，胡子渐渐落了下风。
第二局，胡子中盘告负。
陈老板喜不自禁，他还从未看到胡子输过。围观的人开始点评棋局，
连被胡子赶下台的小老板都凑过来说上两句，甚至跟一个棋手争了起来。
胡子无所谓地坐着，默默地看着棋盘。
第二天上午那一局，胡子赢得很顺利。下午的那局，却是眼镜赢了。
谁都没想到，胡子本来是稳胜了的，却不料眼镜死磨硬缠，在终局前把胡
子的一块棋搅成了双活，数点下来，竟是眼镜一目小胜。胡子的收官练得
精熟，就是为了下指导棋时，要赢多少就是多少，拿捏的恰到好处，不至
于让下手输的太惨而失去兴趣。外人都为胡子惋惜，认为胡子棋艺还是高
于对手，只是不慎。胡子心里明白，能让自己在强项上翻了船，说明对手
确实厉害，状态也在逐渐恢复，明天是第五局，已没有退路。
次日，陈老板和眼镜早早地来了，却被告之胡子上午有事，下午才能
来。眼镜也没闲着，和陈老板邀了两个棋手打桥牌。眼镜的桥牌打得不错，
若不是搭档陈老板老是冒叫，他们可以大赢的，结果却输了。茶社的棋手
跟眼镜开玩笑，说这家伙一定不是个好学生，在大学里没学别的，只学下
棋打牌。眼镜也说自己是六十分万岁，能混毕业已是万幸。眼镜正经是棋
院里学出来的，上高中前就拿到了初段，教练本来要重点培养他的，可眼
镜的父母死活不让孩子走职业围棋的路，把教练气得够戗，眼镜倒无所谓，
丢下棋盘去考大学，居然很轻松地考上了。
胡子下午三点了才来，见眼镜跟其他棋手正聊得带劲，脸上露出一丝
不快。胡子是茶社里穿着最简朴的一个，脚上的塑料凉鞋已经开了叉，还
舍不得丢。听说他老婆是慢性病，要化不少钱。但胡子并不贪财，守信用，
又肯给年轻棋手机会，在茶社里威信极高。
胡子为老婆的病跑了一上午，多少显得有些疲惫。眼镜上前打招呼，
说不如改天再下。胡子摆了摆手，说既然说好了，还是下吧。
眼镜本想提议猜先，胡子却径直把装白棋的罐子拿过来放在自己一侧。
眼镜只好持黑先下。棋局开始，与前几盘不同，两人下得飞快，不象是下
棋，倒象是赛跑。胡子脸色黑沉，眼镜也有点不大高兴的样子。进入中盘，
两人渐渐慢了下来。围观的人越来越多，把小小的棋桌围得密不透风。茶
社里突然安静了许多，几个喜欢说说笑笑的年轻棋手住了口，站在边上盯
着棋盘，一声不吭。棋盘上黑白四五条大龙扭在一起，看上去哪条都没有
足够的眼位，此时的一着不慎，马上就会败下阵来。胡子看来精力有些不
济，想三下五除二地解决战斗，没有象前几盘那样稳扎稳打。眼镜倒是大
意了，没想到胡子招招拼命，加上胡子不肯与他猜先，心里有气，棋走得
也有些过分。
胡子和眼镜的额头都冒出了汗。茶社的对面是个建筑工地，混凝土搅
拌机刺耳的声音透过密闭的门窗传了进来，下棋的和观棋的却都是充耳不
闻。
胡子拿起白子，正准备放下时，又突然收了回来。此处是一个大劫，
胡子若补，则可杀对方一大块，但自己也要损失两小块，比较目数，反而
吃亏，但局面并无大损，如果收官收得好，还有赢棋的希望。若不补劫，
继续打下去，劫才肯定不够，只有靠对杀取胜，而对杀的变化太多，自己
并没有多少把握，除非对手走错。
眼镜要过陈老板的扇子，猛扇起来。眼镜的父母当年之所以不让眼镜
继续学，主要是因为这孩子好胜心太强，担心他将来真走上围棋的职业道
路，反而受不了这种盘盘生死搏斗的场面。还不如上个大学，毕业了找个
安稳工作，过得轻松愉快。眼镜早就听陈老板说过，胡子是本地业余围棋
界的第一高手，可眼镜也不是没来头的，上大学时，他曾受教于当地的一
个退役下来的国手，棋力不降反增，在高校间的比赛中，也拿了几次冠军。
眼镜后来有些后悔不该听父母的，这么早就决定放弃围棋，如果能坚持学
下来，说不定能进国家队的。此次与胡子较量，五局持白，实在是有辱脸
面，但没办法，这是人家的地盘；况且，胡子确实有水平，根本不象是随
便玩玩的业余棋手。他哪知道，胡子这等，也是靠棋吃饭的，只是运气不
好，没有机会往国手方向发展。
胡子还是粘了劫。他对自己的收官更有把握。
棋局继续，双方各有斩获。就这么走下去，胜负大概在两目之间，按
理说，谁胜谁负还很难说。可眼镜却不肯老老实实地补棋，连着造了几个
小赖皮劫。胡子大怒，也针锋相对，有劫必打，却中了眼镜的圈套。毕竟
胡子的精力远不如眼镜那般好，心里也着急，一个应对不恰，竟被眼镜占
了个大便宜。
胡子抓了一把白子，撒在棋盘上。
围观的棋手里，有几个在不停地点目，说若是刚才胡子忍了那手劫，
又不出什么错的话，盘面应当是黑只多五目，也就是白半目胜。
胡子笑了笑，没理他们，只对眼镜说后生厉害。眼镜兴奋莫名，说前
辈承让，以后还要多请教。两人离去。
光阴荏苒，茶社依旧，棋院又多招了两个初级班，到处跑动着七八岁
的孩子，送孩子来学棋的家长里面又多了些新面孔。棋手们到没有什么变
化，还是那几个。
胡子很少来了，听说他的妻子病得不轻。眼镜没有再来。
（完）
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这几天看新浪的奥运网真是过瘾。(aoyun.sina.com.cn)
据说每天已突破千万人次的大关。新闻是全方位的，
又快又细又多，每天起来都要在那儿先逛上个把小时。
相比之下，那个人民网就象是一个ｊｏｋｅ。
马家军的这次一个都没来，听说是吃药了，是不是
真有其事。国内哪位知情的请说说。
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要说知情不敢说，不过我是不相信马家军吃药的。
据说查出是有阳性，而且北京这次又要申奥，而且
提出的口号也是“绿色奥运”，自然对己要严，所以
有问题的全被滤下去了。
我们这儿有的人说血样查出阳性是不是同马家军的高原
训练有关？因为去悉尼之前，马家军到青藏高原进行适
应性训练，高原训练是不是与血红蛋白的增加有关系？
这只是道听途说，以及像我这样的马家军支持者的自我安慰。
螳螂医生是专家，有什么补充？或者给我们普及一下？
马俊仁真是一个悲剧性的人物！
翔宇
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> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 这几天看新浪的奥运网真是过瘾。(aoyun.sina.com.cn)
> 据说每天已突破千万人次的大关。新闻是全方位的，
> 又快又细又多，每天起来都要在那儿先逛上个把小时。
> 相比之下，那个人民网就象是一个ｊｏｋｅ。
>
> 马家军的这次一个都没来，听说是吃药了，是不是
> 真有其事。国内哪位知情的请说说。
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Subject: [xys_friends] 给亦歌：马家军无缘悉尼的背景资料
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以下摘自于http://aoyun.163.com/tm/000908/000908_65929.html
--------
新闻分析：奥运会马家军七女将缘何六人遭淘汰
沂水秀才(2000-09-08)
在2000年悉尼奥运会仅差一周之际，中国奥运代表团突然决定裁减40名成员，这一
"大义灭亲"的举动，立即引起萨马兰奇和与马家军竞争对手的"高度赞扬"。
马家军到底有没有服用兴奋剂？中国奥运代表团缘何突然取消了马家军的参赛资格
？到目前为止，众说纷纭，莫衷一是。
中国奥运代表团取消马家军参加悉尼奥运会参赛资格的最冠冕堂皇的理由是：马家
军涉嫌使用兴奋剂。但事情仅仅这么简单吗？
众所周知，在世界游泳界臭名昭著的中国游泳队才是中国最大的涉嫌使用兴奋剂团
体，但中国奥运代表团并没有对国家游泳队开刀，到是为了金牌，一天一个马拉松，提
前一个月到青藏高原训练的马家军，却因为"涉嫌使用兴奋剂"而被一刀砍死。这当中的
事情，怎一个"涉嫌"了得？
如今，事情已经过去了将近一周，沸沸扬扬中，马家军的悉尼之旅已经化为泡影，
普天之下，人心依旧难服！在阵阵秋风中，我们有必要理一理自己纷乱的思绪。
1、中国田协取消马家军参加奥运会资格的理由是"莫须有"：
外电报道说，中国田协负责人已经证实，曾经横扫世界田坛的马家军领军人物马俊
仁教练，已和他的6名弟子将无缘悉尼奥运。但中国田协负责人在承认马家军成员的"血
检有些问题"的同时，却又强调说"这绝对不是说马家军服用了兴奋剂"。既然无法确认
马家军是否服用了兴奋剂，为什么取消马家军--最有可能获得奥运金牌的马家军参加奥
运会的资格？这是否是此地无银三百两，已经变相承认了马家军服用了兴奋剂？
2、马家军到底有没有服用兴奋剂：
祖国医学博大精深。作为来自民间的体育教师，马俊仁自然从中国民间吸取了无穷
的智慧。
在经过人生的风风雨雨之后，作为功成名就的名人，马俊仁事实上根本不需要再靠
悉尼奥运会来证明自己，所以，如果说已经获得了奥运会参赛资格的马俊仁在去悉尼之
前，偷偷服用血红激素的话，傻瓜才会相信。
事实上，长期以来，耐力和速度项目一直是药物检查的重点，马家军在90年代一举
成名，几乎囊括了女子中长跑的所有世界和中国冠军头衔之后，他们一直是中国和世界
飞行药检"轰炸"的对象。但数年的飞行药检并没有说明马家军存在什么问题。相反，马
俊仁桀骜不训的性格，以及马家军近似黑社会组织的管理措施，到成为中国田协和中国
国家体育总局的一个心头之患。所以，到了今天，马俊仁及其弟子们被喀嚓一声枪毙，
并不奇怪：毕竟我们还没有到充分尊重个人隐私和充分尊重个人专利和知识产权的时
候，你马俊仁有本事就让全中国的田径运动员受惠，否则，肯定就是有问题。
3、中国的药检水平真的是世界一流的吗？
这话说起来其实是天方夜谈。如果这样，中国游泳队不用美国人和澳大利亚人施加
压力就已经解散了，但恰恰相反，当我们在全运会上风光无限的游泳选手们，因为世界
泳协的强力出击而在世界大赛上毫无作为，灰溜溜地归来的时候，我们的发言人却还在
"愤怒地"、"义正词严地"、喋喋不休地反击对手"别有用心"的指责。
悉尼的奥委会药物检测室承认，中国的检测标准比奥委会已通过的标准要高得多。
他们甚至还替马家军鸣不平："有很多因素会造成血液内成分的变化，包括心情的激
动，这很可能产生误操作，使没有服用禁药的选手也蒙受冤屈。"马家军到底因为什么"
从多巴高原训练基地消失"；马家军又是因为什么原因而被取消了参加细悉尼奥运会的
参赛资格，事实如何尚未有定论，但马家军长期以来以各类滋补药物作为训练的一部分
却是一个不争的事实，包括鳖汤，冬虫夏草、公鸡汤等等。事实上，这些东西本身就很
容易使血红素升高，如果考虑到马家军长期以来在多巴基地、在海拔3000米以上空气稀
薄的高原训练，，本身就会会导致人体内血红素升高的话，中国奥运会代表团如果不给
中国人民一个满意的交代，这件事情将不会这么简单地过去。
4、马家军被取消悉尼奥运会参赛资格的可能原因：
一位不愿意透露姓名的官员称，中国现行的血液检测严格程度是"高于"国际标准
的，这个所谓的"高于"其实是最大的疑点。所以，假如中国血检的准确性真的有问题的
话，那么，马家军被"枪打出头鸟"在外人看来就好象太冤了！其实不然，早在斯图加特
之后，马家军和马俊仁当时擅自将获得的几两奥迪车据为己有就犯了中国人的大忌，要
知道当时，即使部级干部都无权享受这样的高级轿车，何况马俊仁的成功，是在"各级
组织"的"关怀"下取得的，而不是象国外那样，自己投资，自己收益；另一方面，作为
地方诸侯，马俊仁不注意收敛自己的锋芒，动辄让中国田协的近卫军全军覆没，恐怕也
为今天的"神秘消失"埋下了伏笔。马俊仁及其马家军所犯的另外一个大忌是生不逢时，
中国北京正在申办2008年奥运会，面临大阪等城市的激烈竞争，中国国家体育总局必须
出奇制胜，以便来证明自己所谓的奥林匹可精神，此时，"涉嫌"的马家军，世界上如雷
贯耳的马家军，自然是最好的武器--中国的事情就是这样，有时候，为了一件事情，可
以"不惜一切代价"，这是有着光荣传统的。
总之，气愤也罢，无奈也罢，袁伟民接替伍绍祖出任国家体育总局局长之后，做梦
都想拿的一块"金牌"，就是保证北京获得2008年奥运会主办资格。由于受盐湖城冬季奥
运会申办丑闻的影响，国际奥委会禁止委员到竞争城市参观，因此，悉尼奥运会上，申
办者的国际形象和体育声誉都将显得格外重要。不管中国国家体育总局在中国的兴奋剂
问题上是如何巧舌如簧，可以说兴奋剂问题（尤其是游泳界的兴奋剂问题）一直是申办
工作中的定时炸弹，既然不愿意承认游泳界存在严重的兴奋剂问题，那么，找一个更加
有影响的项目作秀也就成为必然。所以，马家军成为"集体荣誉"和"集体利益"的牺牲品
也就不足为奇了。何况近年来世界各国的中长跑成绩都突飞猛进，而综观马家军的表
现，即使在国内的表现，近几年也差强人意，即使放他们去了悉尼，他们也不见得能够
百分之百给我们拿回金牌，所以，在神不知鬼不觉中，用中国体育的王牌马家军来行使
北京申奥的"苦肉计"，或许是聪明人的一种"丢卒保车"的上上之计！
设若马俊仁及其马家军成为北京申奥的牺牲品，设若北京以马家军的"涉嫌"而申奥
成功，我们不知道，这将是中国人的喜剧，还是中国人的悲剧。更不知道，这是奥林匹
可精神的胜利，还是酱缸文化的胜利。
-----------------
老马真惨啊！！
翔宇
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At 00-9-22 21:01:00, Dan Windover wrote:
>The Puzzle's FAQ's answer is N/e.
>
>As for the program, there is no chance of swap in
>the original question. Better ask Yihua for a more
>detail explanation on the question.
>
我也没看明白筋斗云这段话。半山的代码很清楚，没有什么问题，
其中的swap是用在随机排序那段代码里。
我想知道的是运行下来结果如何？
At 00-9-22 17:24:00, Zhiping You wrote:
>Once again, to maximize the gain, ceil or floor of (sqrt(n)-1) is the
>number to pick.
>
>To maximize the chance of marry the top guy, I believe the number to pick
>is N/e.
>
我还真没想到此差别。我见到的这题是上述第二种情况，而我昨天
帖中也是这么说的。因此N/e还是对的。但是我觉得在实际操作中
还是第一种情况比较合理。sqrt(n)-1这个结论我可是第一次知道。
至于上述两个结论如何证明，我是一点头绪也没有。万教授还是给
讲讲吧。
一华
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 概率题
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 00-9-19 2:00:00, Zhou Yihua wrote:
>聚会结束后尚剩六顶帽子，但帽主喝醉了，找不着存物牌，更认
>不出自己的帽子。保管员无奈，让他们随便拿。结果六个人没一
>个拿的是自己的帽子。请问这种情况发生的概率是多少？
>
>把上题推广到普遍情况，N个人N顶帽子，每个人都拿了别人的帽
>子，概率是多少？
>
>答案五天后公布。
>
>一华
>
五天过去了，我来讲一下：
六个人的情况比较简单，可直接计算。
先看其中一个人，他拿了别人帽子的概率是5/6；再看被他拿了帽子
的那个人，他拿了拿他帽子那人的帽子的概率是1/5，而拿了另四人
之一的帽子的概率是4/5。接着再依次看另四个人，也类似上面的分
析。由此即可列出算式：
D(6)=5/6*{4/5*[3/4*(1/3*1/2+2/3*1/2)+1/4*2/3*1/2]
+1/5*3/4*(1/3*1/2+2/3*1/2)}
=53/144
对N个人的情况，解法与六个人一样，只要一重重括号套着把式子列
下去就是了。由此可看出这里面其实隐含着某个递推关系。那么我们
就来列一个递推式。
同样的，其中一个人拿了别人帽子的概率是(n-1)/n。而被他拿了帽子
那人拿了他帽子的概率是1/(n-1)，这种情况下，剩下的其实是一个计
算(n-2)个人的情况。而另一方面，这人拿了其他(n-2)个人之一的帽
子的概率是(n-2)/(n-1)，这等价于(n-1)人的情况。由此得到：
D(n)=(n-1)/n*[1/(n-1)*D(n-2)+D(n-1)]
=(n-1)/n*D(n-1)+1/n*D(n-2) (n>2)
有了这个递推式，剩下的仅是代数运算了。先算出如下三个值：
D(1)=0, D(2)=1/2, D(3)=1/3;
然后从递推式得出直接算式：
D(n-1)=(n-2)/(n-1)*D(n-2)+1/(n-1)*D(n-3) (n>3)
代入D(n)可得：
D(n)=(n-1)/n*D(n-2)+1/n*D(n-3) (n>3)
两式相减得：
D(n)-D(n-1)=1/[n*(n-1)]*[D(n-2)-D(n-3)] (n>3)
当n为偶数时：
D(n)-D(n-1)=1/[n*(n-1)*(n-2)*...*4*3]*[D(2)-D(1)]
=1/n! (n>3)
当n为奇数时：
D(n)-D(n-1)=1/[n*(n-1)*(n-2)*...*5*4]*[D(3)-D(2)]
=-1/n! (n>3)
显然D(2)和D(3)也分别符合上述两式，定义域可扩展到(n>1)。
为了把(n=1)也包括在内，不妨定义一个无实际意义的D(0)：
D(1)-D(0)=-1/1!
得到：
D(0)=1
综上可得：
D(n)=D(n-1)+1/n! (n为大于0的偶数）
D(n)=D(n-1)-1/n! (n为大于0的奇数）
最后即得：
D(n)=1-1/1!+1/2!-1/3!+...+(-1)^n*1/n! (n>0)
或者写成：
n
D(n)=1+∑(-1)^i*1/i!
i=1
当n-->∞时：
D(n)=1/e
一华
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From: yige <yige@mediaone.net>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 新浪奥运
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>
>提出的口号也是“绿色奥运”，自然对己要严，所以
>有问题的全被滤下去了。
翔宇兄的丢卒保帅说很有道理，过几天好象就要揭晓了，
这个卒子丢得值不值，到时候就知道了。不过这次的
希望应该是很大的。要再给大坂争了去，那就太不象�
话了。
另：Ｒｏｎ说看过有关牙买加雪橇队的电视，应该是
没错的。这事传开后，被制片商看中，拍成了电影。
不过，这个几内亚选手和牙买加雪橇队花的都是奥委会
的钱，是奥委会为了普及比赛项目所作努力的一部分，
所以不花白不花，反正不用自己国家出钱。
本人目前正在积极争取赤道几内亚体委主任一职，
以后哪位弟兄想参加奥运会比赛，先跟我打个招呼。
有没有绝活没关系，只要肯移民赤道几内亚就行：－）
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-23 20:57:00 翔宇写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>要说知情不敢说，不过我是不相信马家军吃药的。
>据说查出是有阳性，而且北京这次又要申奥，而且
>提出的口号也是“绿色奥运”，自然对己要严，所以
>有问题的全被滤下去了。
>
>我们这儿有的人说血样查出阳性是不是同马家军的高原
>训练有关？因为去悉尼之前，马家军到青藏高原进行适
>应性训练，高原训练是不是与血红蛋白的增加有关系？
我刚从高原上下来的时候，体检查血红蛋白，猜猜有多少克？
21克！平地一般人也就十四、五克。血红蛋白过高，其实是
很危险的，21克恰好是分界线。
为什么当时我的血色素高呢？当然是因为高原缺氧，红血球代偿
性的升高所致。人体的代偿能力是很强的，缺什么就给你补什么，
它（呵呵，也就是我自己）接受到了缺氧信号，第一个反应就是
这家伙运送氧气的的红血球少了，给他加！我喜欢玩，在高原上
也不老实，缺氧的信号不断地送，它就不断地给我加，经过三年
的漫长岁月，终于加到了危险边缘。：）
>这只是道听途说，以及像我这样的马家军支持者的自我安慰。
>
>螳螂医生是专家，有什么补充？或者给我们普及一下？
>
>
>马俊仁真是一个悲剧性的人物！
>
>
>翔宇
红血球中主要的功能蛋白是血红蛋白，血红蛋白主要的功能
就是携氧，血红蛋白高，单位时间内供氧能力强，对于大量
耗氧的体育运动，特别是中长跑，当然有好处。血红激素可
以在较短时间内刺激人体产生红血球。
我倾向于认为马家军有使用血红激素的嫌疑。检查的项目和
具体的数据我不清楚（谁能提供？我倒可以试着分析一下），
但我觉得不大可能出现篡改数据的可能，毕竟这不是一件小
事。
至于说到是否有别的因素造成血检人员的错误判断，可能性
也不大，因为确定诊断标准是要做大量实验的，假阳性是必
须也是重点要考虑的问题。如果马家军在很短的时间内，红
血球升得过高（比如达到我下山前的水平，但别忘了我是三
年），则基本上可以肯定有问题。我相信人有个体差异，但
不能太离谱，特别是一下子查出6个来。至于说到中草药和王
八血之类的东西，即便有促进血红细胞增多的功能，但我觉
不相信它们能有直接使用血红激素那么大的效果，除非她一
天吃一吨，甚至更多（考虑考虑含量问题吧）。
说老实话，我以前就怀疑过马家军有服用某种违禁药品的嫌
疑，特别是前一段闹得沸沸扬扬的运动员以出走抗议药检事
件，有借助舆论施加压力的嫌疑，也多少表现出心虚。
话说回来，我倒是比较相信这种说法：每当西方体育界找到
了更好的药，他们就把旧药列入违禁名单。
体育比赛，特别是田径运动，到了顶尖水平，每提高一丁点，
都是极难的。不服用任何药物，百米短跑真能跑到9秒8以内
吗？我很怀疑。
螳螂
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> >提出的口号也是“绿色奥运”，自然对己要严，所以
> >有问题的全被滤下去了。
>
> 翔宇兄的丢卒保帅说很有道理，过几天好象就要揭晓了，
> 这个卒子丢得值不值，到时候就知道了。不过这次的
> 希望应该是很大的。要再给大坂争了去，那就太不象?
> 话了。
>
这回希望大？我怎么觉得没什么戏呢。前两天才去北京
玩了十多天，感觉北京就是三个字：脏、乱、差。脏指
的是环境太不好，大家春天在电视上也看见北京那沙尘
暴了，多厉害。据说国外机构在北京的职员有些在申请
特别补助，理由是北京环境太差，对于健康有危害。乱
指的是治安，一夏天光贼警察就抓了一万多，还只是冰
山一角而已。差指的是交通，我呆的十多天，天天都碰
到堵车，有一天本来要去故宫，坐车才开出去一公里多
就堵上了，堵了两个小时之后，干脆溜达回家，不去了。
咱惹不起，咱还躲不起？在北京，除非骑自行车，要不
然没准点。
好象奥委会官员来考察是明年二到四月份，二月份还在
取暖，空气肯定不行，然后他们就会赶上沙尘暴，能对
北京有好印象那才叫怪。
其实如果主办城市是上海，希望倒不小。上海的交通不
错，治安也挺好，环境比北京强很多倍。干吗不让上海
申办？
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From: "翔宇" <znetpeng@online.sh.cn>
To: "Friends of Xin Yu Si" <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 新浪奥运
Date: Sun, 24 Sep 2000 13:34:14 +0800
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> > >提出的口号也是“绿色奥运”，自然对己要严，所以
> > >有问题的全被滤下去了。
> >
> > 翔宇兄的丢卒保帅说很有道理，过几天好象就要揭晓了，
> > 这个卒子丢得值不值，到时候就知道了。不过这次的
> > 希望应该是很大的。要再给大坂争了去，那就太不象?
> > 话了。
> >
大概亦歌兄误解我的意思了。首先，我发这篇文章只是提供
一个背景资料而已。我也不欣赏国家体委的这种“丢卒保帅”
的做法（如果真的有的话）
>
> 这回希望大？我怎么觉得没什么戏呢。前两天才去北京
> 玩了十多天，感觉北京就是三个字：脏、乱、差。脏指
> 的是环境太不好，大家春天在电视上也看见北京那沙尘
> 暴了，多厉害。据说国外机构在北京的职员有些在申请
> 特别补助，理由是北京环境太差，对于健康有危害。乱
> 指的是治安，一夏天光贼警察就抓了一万多，还只是冰
> 山一角而已。差指的是交通，我呆的十多天，天天都碰
> 到堵车，有一天本来要去故宫，坐车才开出去一公里多
> 就堵上了，堵了两个小时之后，干脆溜达回家，不去了。
> 咱惹不起，咱还躲不起？在北京，除非骑自行车，要不
> 然没准点。
>
而且这次申奥我看还真悬，我92年2月去过北京，情况同上面网友dingye的文字
写的一模一样，当时北京正申办2000年奥运会。近些年来有的朋友到
北京出差，开会，回来异口同音：唉！北京已越来越不成一个首都的
样子了。这样下去是要迁都了。再加上今年春天的沙尘暴，外国人吓
都吓跑了。不过环境不好倒是反证了国家体委为什么这样“丢卒保帅”，
一个地方有缺失，总要在另一个地方（如奥运精神等方面）弥补弥补，给
人家留下一个“好印像”，马俊仁就这么被当上了“祭品”
> 好象奥委会官员来考察是明年二到四月份，二月份还在
> 取暖，空气肯定不行，然后他们就会赶上沙尘暴，能对
> 北京有好印象那才叫怪。
记得上次92年去北京时，正赶上奥委会那帮人三四月份要来。市政当局早早地
就控制群众取暖了。我到舅舅家作客，看到舅舅抱着暖气片的样子，第一次对
申办奥运倒底是好是坏有了怀疑。
不过，话又说回来，如果北京市政府真的为了申办奥运把环境搞好了，治安，
交通搞好了，对百姓也有利，倒又是一档子事儿了。
> 其实如果主办城市是上海，希望倒不小。上海的交通不
> 错，治安也挺好，环境比北京强很多倍。干吗不让上海
> 申办？
>
强烈支持把主办城市搬到上海来。（俺就是阿拉上海人：））上海相对于别的
城市（当然，厦门，青岛，大连等城市例外），至少比北京要好得多。交通嘛，
到处的高架桥就不用说了，还有轻轨和地铁。
治安也好，我有一阵子在派出所跟一个硕士生一起搞派出所信息系统，才知道上海
警察虽然整体素质不是太好，不过的确很辛苦。环境嘛，像苏州河的治理还是有效果
的。只可惜北京没申办成功，哪里轮得上上海呢？
翔宇
>
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Date: Sun, 24 Sep 2000 16:24:48 +0800
From: Lov Sun <lovsun@21cn.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Re: Re: [xys_friends] =BC=F2=D6=B1=CA=C7=D2=BB=B8=F6=CF=DD=DA=E5=CE=CA=CC=E2=A3=BF?=
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
计算这个问题的概率公式是： G(r)=SUM(j=[r,N-1])(C(j-1,r-1)/(N-j))/C(N,r)
r表示先面试但不录取的数目。C(n,m)表示n个数中取m个的组合,SUM(j=[m,n])(f(j))表示在[m..n]范围内求∑f(j)
G(r)表示1..N,N个数字,从r个后，第一个大于这r个数字的最大值的数字等于N的概率
我用电脑算了一下，当N<=2000时，r=Round(N/e)时G(r)最大。
不知道这个公式还有没有可能简化，求最大值毫无头绪，而且从这个式子里看不到e的影子。
In 2000-09-22 下午 10:40:00 You wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>这个问题我最早是在八十年代初的一期《科学画报》上看到的，
>被称作“秘书问题”。要招聘一个秘书，应聘者有N个，逐个面
>试太费时间精力。最佳方案是：
>
>先逐个面试其中的N/e个，一个也不录取，但记住其中最佳者的
>情况。然后开始面试剩下的人，一旦有一个超过前N/e个人里的
>最佳者即停止面试，秘书就是她了。比如有100个应聘者，100
>除以e约为37。因此可随机编号，先面试1到37号并立即打发走，
>然后面试38、39……一旦找到一个比前37人强的就结了。
>
>因此这问题又叫“停止问题”。八七年《青年文摘》也出了这
>题，把内容说成是选择对象了。
>
>据说这样挑选，挑到最佳者的概率很大且效率最高。我至今没
>搞明白这N/e是怎么来的，万教授能否给讲讲？如果最佳者在前
>N/e之中呢？实际操作中是否该把标准降到一旦有一个人与前面
>的最佳者“相当”即停止？
>
>一华
>
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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At 00-9-24 16:24:00, Lov Sun wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 计算这个问题的概率公式是： G(r)=SUM(j=[r,N-1])(C(j-1,r-1)/(N-j))/C(N,r)
> r表示先面试但不录取的数目。C(n,m)表示n个数中取m个的组合,SUM(j=[m,n])(f(j))表示在[m..n]范围内求∑f(j)
> G(r)表示1..N,N个数字,从r个后，第一个大于这r个数字的最大值的数字等于N的概率
> 我用电脑算了一下，当N<=2000时，r=Round(N/e)时G(r)最大。
> 不知道这个公式还有没有可能简化，求最大值毫无头绪，而且从这个式子里看不到e的影子。
干得漂亮！我检验了一下。这公式完全正确。
我来解释一下：
从N里取出r个先面试，一共有C(N,r)种组合。在这全部组合里，能使最后选到最佳者的
组合占多少呢？
首先，最佳者肯定得在r个后面，因此面试的r个人只能在(N-1)个中。
当第二佳者在面试的r个之内，则最佳者在后面的任意位置皆可，因此有C(N-2,r-1)种组
合；
当第二佳者在后面，而第三佳者在r个内，则最佳者必须在第二佳者前面，概率为1/2，
因此C(N-3,r-1)种组合得再除以2；
当第二第三佳者在后面，而第四佳者在r个内，则最佳者必须在第二第三佳者前面，概率
为1/3，因此C(N-4,r-1)种组合得除以3；
依次排下去，最后一种情况是面试的r个人是最差的r个人，则只有一种组合，此时最佳者
在r个后面必须排在最前面，概率为1/(N-r)，因此C(r-1,r-1)得除以(N-r)。
综上所述，可得：
G(r)=[C(N-2,r-1)+C(N-3,r-1)/2+C(N-4,r-1)/3+...+C(r,r-1)/(N-r-1)+C(r-1,r-1)/(N-r)]/C(N,r)
N-r
=Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)/i]/C(N,r)
i=1
这与Lov Sun列出的公式是完全一样的。
现在既然概率式子已列出，剩下的问题就是计算了。如能把公式化简，求导就能算出来了。
一华
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>
> 胡子很少来了，听说他的妻子病得不轻。眼镜没有再来。
螳螂这篇东西写得不错，悬念迭起，很有看头。
本来在最后决赛前，胡子去替老婆看病。按照
习惯写法，这该是个卖关子的时候，主人公或
是从妻子的病中得到某些启发，或是去高人处
偷点拳头，回来将眼镜杀得落花流水，方才是
个正而八经的高潮。你老兄就这么不明不白地
仍旧让眼镜杀了胡子，太也没道理。不过，想
想那眼镜是螳螂的化身，也就释然了。你梦里
都想嬴棋，如今在小说里偶尔胜了胡子，俺也
就睁一只眼闭一只眼算了：－）
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Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 新浪奥运
Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2000 08:17:02 +0800
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 强烈支持把主办城市搬到上海来。（俺就是阿拉上海人：））上海相对于别的
> 城市（当然，厦门，青岛，大连等城市例外），至少比北京要好得多。交通嘛，
> 到处的高架桥就不用说了，还有轻轨和地铁。
> 治安也好，我有一阵子在派出所跟一个硕士生一起搞派出所信息系统，才知道上海
> 警察虽然整体素质不是太好，不过的确很辛苦。环境嘛，像苏州河的治理还是有效果
> 的。只可惜北京没申办成功，哪里轮得上上海呢？
俺就是青岛人。咱们是不是在这里互相吹捧啊。：）不过说真的，咱也去过好几个
地方（大连，厦门没去过），可都觉得没青岛好。环境和气候不必说了，交通和治
安也是全国一流。青岛的公交在全国是很厉害的，前两天数了一下，我们家门口竟
然有17种公交车，到青岛市任何一个地方都不用倒车，公交车来得还很快，方便得
很。青岛的治安也不错，甭管多晚走在路上，都没有害怕的感觉。前年青岛出过一
起连环杀人案，大家因为太平无事惯了，都没见过这个，所以闹得人心慌慌的。后
来越传越离谱，记得有一期小参考（谁知道这玩意怎么退订，硬塞到你的信箱里也
不打声招呼，真烦人，现在好象又改了名叫新闻自由报什么的，除了造谣之外不会
说正经事）竟然说死了好几百人，这帮家伙真是惟恐天下不乱。
青岛这地方适合养老和短期疗养，要到这来找工作就不怎么好了，这工资太低，
2000块就算是高薪了，所以不少年轻人都跑到南方去挣钱，干上几年再回来买房。
寺里哪位高僧想到这来散散心，咱负责来招待你。俺们山东人好客，保管叫你宾至
如归。
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Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2000 8:51:37 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: Re: [xys_friends] go
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-24 11:02:00 yige写道：
>本来在最后决赛前，胡子去替老婆看病。按照
>习惯写法，这该是个卖关子的时候，主人公或
>是从妻子的病中得到某些启发，或是去高人处
>偷点拳头，回来将眼镜杀得落花流水，方才是
>个正而八经的高潮。你老兄就这么不明不白地
>仍旧让眼镜杀了胡子，太也没道理。不过，想
>想那眼镜是螳螂的化身，也就释然了。你梦里
>都想嬴棋，如今在小说里偶尔胜了胡子，俺也
>就睁一只眼闭一只眼算了：－）
我可没这水平。：）其实也有棋手（比较年轻的）找
我去下，我自认水平相差太远，没敢应承。
本来我想写胡子在关键一步上被旁观的人指点，然后
如何如何。后来想想，还是没朝那方面写。也可能一
开始就打算让胡子输吧。（事实好象也是胡子输了，
是其他家长告诉我的。连着走目外是我亲眼所见，一
般来说，这多少有看低对手的意思。眼镜的来历搞不
清，我问了几个，都说不知道，我就给瞎编了一通。：））
胡子他们基本上没有工作，主要收入就是靠赌局或下
指导棋。我观察过，这样的机会也不是很多。靠此为
生，不见得是条好路子。
螳螂
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Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2000 23:38:14 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
At 00-9-24 22:34:00, Zhou Yihua wrote:
>G(r)=[C(N-2,r-1)+C(N-3,r-1)/2+C(N-4,r-1)/3+...+C(r,r-1)/(N-r-1)+C(r-1,r-1)/(N-r)]/C(N,r)
>
> N-r
> =Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)/i]/C(N,r)
> i=1
>
>这与Lov Sun列出的公式是完全一样的。
>
>现在既然概率式子已列出，剩下的问题就是计算了。如能把公式化简，求导就能算出来了。
>
>一华
>
我算不出来。万教授哪去了？
一华
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Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2000 8:40:58 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: Re: Re: [xys_friends] go
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-25 21:34:00 offender写道：
>走目外是属于力战型的下法，大斜定式不就是在目外挂小目被一间夹的时候
>反一间高夹的棋形吗？而直接走目外，就会形成没有了一间夹的同样的棋形，
>无疑更利于挑起战斗。专业味浓的棋手，似乎不大会连走两个目外，因为实
>地比较亏，局面不均衡。
我当时看见胡子连走两个目外，也感到诧异，觉得他有点蔑视对方。
前不久日本25届名人战第二局，赵治熏持黑第二着就是个目外，依
田小目挂，赵走大斜定式。局部两分。后来赵中盘认输。
大概是胡子认为跟对手是让子水平，既然对方不肯被让子，他就连
走目外，表明先让你一着。是不是有此意？
>胡子这样的业余高手几乎每一个棋室里都会有，我一个同学现在基本也就是
>靠这混饭吃，一边还在什么小学里教教围棋班，弄点固定收入，还后靠赌棋
>捞外快，日子过的也挺舒坦。
>我也曾和靠赌棋为生的人下过棋，那人大概是一个弱三段。赌棋的人和下手
>下，风格往往和胡子不大一样，到了才官子特别求稳。我那次一开始在角上
>就吃了点亏，到中盘已经落后不少了，收官时他开始到处补棋，把味道都补
>干净，让我追回了一点。但他可能对中腹的一个官子定型没有算清楚，原来
>大概求稳想赢我三四目棋的，最后大官子收完后中腹又被我走到，反而被我
>赢了半目。那次我也是不知就里就跟人家赌，结果还算侥幸。
呵呵，你是位高手啦。我猜你的对手对你估计不足。：）
我的那篇文章里提到过：
“胡子在茶社浸润多年，下指导棋只是一说，其实大多是赌局。胡子靠下
棋为生，对付陈老板这样的下手很有一套，赢多少都是心里有数，比如第
一二局可让对方感到自己还有实力，输了只是有些地方没注意到，于是要
扳回，赌局的价码也可越加越大。”
我觉得他们在官子上还是很有功夫的，而且对付下手并不痛杀，对子下他
赢你三四目，让两子还是赢你三四目，到了让四子，还是三四目。我曾看
到一位家长就是这么被“钓”，一次就输了四百多。
我想跟你下的这位可能已算到稳赢你三四目，那知你竟走出他没看出来的
妙手，而此时再想翻盘，已经晚了。你再跟他下几盘，可能他就不敢这么
下了。
螳螂
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Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2000 08:21:44 -0700 (PDT)
From: ban-shan yuan <banshan_yuan@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
You two are almost there. But there is a simpler way
to
calculate the probability:
pass the first r boys in the queue, let the best one
be at position b+1, clearly, for it to have non-zero
contribution to probability, we have b >= r and the
best of r must also be the best of b, which has a
chance of r/b.
b can be anywhere between r and N-1, each of which
has a probability of 1/N, therefore the probability
to pick the best of all is
G(r) = (1/N)*(r/r + r/(r+1) + ... + r/(N-1))
There are many ways to find the max of G(r) when
N ->inf, one of which uses the limiting behavior
of harmonic number H(n) ~ ln(n), so G(r) can be
written as
G(r) ~ r/N * (H(N) - H(r)) = -(r/N) * ln(r/N)
it's easy to see the max is at r/N = 1/e, and the max
value of G(r) is also 1/e.
The naive simulation code agreed it seems, let me just
list the data here: (1st column is N, second is the
simulated G(floor(N/e)) normalized by 1/e )
4, 1.127000
5, 1.109331
6, 1.014191
7, 1.003046
8, 0.971786
9, 0.989455
10, 0.991086
11, 0.999784
108, 0.998697
205, 0.977766
302, 1.008754
399, 0.991901
496, 0.993532
593, 0.997338
690, 0.987552
787, 0.993804
884, 0.987008
981, 0.999240
1078, 0.987824
1175, 0.990270
1272, 1.013375
1369, 1.000328
1466, 0.995163
1563, 0.989726
1660, 1.010385
1757, 1.023433
1854, 0.995978
1951, 1.020171
2048, 1.003318
-Banshan
One down, One to go
> At 00-9-24 22:34:00, Zhou Yihua wrote:
>
>G(r)=[C(N-2,r-1)+C(N-3,r-1)/2+C(N-4,r-1)/3+...+C(r,r-1)/(N-r-1)+C(r-1,r-1)/(N-r)]/C(N,r)
> >
> > N-r
> > =Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)/i]/C(N,r)
> > i=1
> >
> >这与Lov Sun列出的公式是完全一样的。
> >
>
>现在既然概率式子已列出，剩下的问题就是计算了。如能把公式化简，求导就能算出来了。
> >
> >一华
> >
> 我算不出来。万教授哪去了？
>
> 一华
>
>
>
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新语丝编辑
感谢把我的小说《情深梦美》登在华人留学生网络文学奖参选作品。
再次阅读小说后，发现一些文字技术错误并作了修改。现将修改后的版本附上，请
用这个新版本取代专栏中的版本。对给你们工作带来的不方便表示歉意。
Jay Shen
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Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2000 22:13:36 -0700
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From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: [xys_friends] 警惕当代“克莱登”
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（原载《中华读书报》2000年9月27日）
警惕当代“克莱登”
·方舟子·
看过钱钟书的小说《围城》的读者知道，美国纽约有一所“克莱登”皮包
大学，专门兜售文凭。我的本家方鸿渐当年留学德国，未读学位，也花四十美
元买了一张克莱登大学的博士文凭，回国当了教授。这类皮包大学在美国并没
有绝迹，在我收到的无数垃圾电子邮件中，偶尔就可见到兜售文凭的。是否有
中国留学生买了这样的文凭回国当教授，不得而知。近来从国内的有关报道中
发现了三例留学人员回国时伪造学位和职称的，却与“克莱登”有异曲同工之
妙。
第一例，是“基因皇后”、“世界生物科学顶尖级人物”陈晓宁，明明是
洛杉矶一所私营医院的技术人员，挂名加州大学附属副教授，回国时却“精简”
成了“加州大学副教授”。一个连博士学位都没有的人如何能在美国著名大学
当副教授？查来查去，发现她的头衔都大成问题。此事我已在以前的一篇文章
（《是商业炒作不是科学研究》，载《中华读书报》2000年9月13日）中详细
揭露过，在此不赘。
第二例，是国内几家媒体报道一位年仅２５岁名叫夏建统的留学生到杭州
“要给西湖动点小手术”，据说他２１岁考入哈佛，２４岁取得建筑学及商务
信息管理硕士、设计学博士学位，“现为哈佛大学最年轻的教授”云云。经向
哈佛大学校方查询，此人其实是２４岁开始读设计学博士学位，离获得博士学
位还早着呢，教授更是八字还没一撇，他当的乃是博士生大都当过的助教。
以上两例虽属伪造，好歹还有点影子。第三例更绝。9月22日起，《天津
日报》、《中国青年报》、新华社等纷纷报道南开大学教授杨池明博士“破解
疯牛病化学密码”，“挑战诺贝尔”，“在美国引起轰动之后，国外很多地方
马上成立了从事神经化学课题研究的公司”云云。我读了杨博士发表在中国
《化学》网络杂志上的论文，发觉他不过是发现了疯牛病的朊粒蛋白和老年
性痴呆症中的贝塔－淀粉状多肽在一段仅9个氨基酸的序列中存在很弱的模式，
连相似性都很难说，他就称之为“惊人类似性”。即使果真如此类似又如何呢？
没有突变和功能实验结果做为支持的序列类似性是没有多少价值的，很难在国
际学术刊物上发表（1993年我发现几种蛋白质存在强得多的序列相似性，写了
篇小论文打算投到一家等级不高的学术刊物，也因无实验支持作罢）。
这个多少还算是学术问题的争论先放一边。引起我的注意的，是杨博士在
论文中以“美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校圣地亚哥生命科学和健康研究所”为联
系地址，他在中国《化学通报》2000年第1期一篇小论文后的作者简介中称自己
“现在美国San Diego加州大学生命科学与健康研究所工作”，《科技日报》在
1999年10月21日一篇介绍杨博士的文章中也说他是“美国加州大学圣地亚哥
分校生命与健康研究所主任”。我刚好就在圣地亚哥定居，经常要上加州大学
查资料，有多位同学、朋友在这所大学工作或工作过，却从来没听说还有这样
的研究所。杨博士给出的这所研究所的通讯地址，是邮政信箱，表明这所研究
所没有固定的办公室。如果一家虚拟的网络公司用邮政信箱当地址，很正常；
一所有实验室的研究所也这么干，就很奇怪了。向加州大学的工作人员查询，
没有人听说过这所研究所。在加州大学圣地亚哥分校的通讯录中，也找不到杨
池明这个人。是不是象陈晓宁的“北美华人医学遗传学家协会”一样，该机构
是杨博士拉几个朋友自己创建的呢？于是我去找加州州政府法人机构的注册记
录，也没有找到有这样的一所研究所登记在案。最后在圣地亚哥市政府记录中
发现了踪迹：杨池明在1998年7月28日向市政府登记了名为“生命科学与健康”
的商业化名，登记号为1998019480。原来所谓“圣地亚哥生命科学与健康研究
所”，不过是杨博士本人的商业化名而已。在美国，组建一个法人机构已相当
容易，而登记一个个人拥有的商业化名更是简单得不能再简单，只要该名称还
没给别人注册掉，花几十美元到市政府登记然后找家地方报纸登一个月广告就
完了。
这三个例子，都是因为当事人经众多媒体广泛报道成了名人，才引起了我
们的注意。在不那么出名的留学归国人员中，不知还可以找到多少类似的例子？
《围城》的时代，中外通讯不便，“克莱登”流行，并不奇怪，方鸿渐听说自
己的一名同事也是克莱登大学毕业的，也只有又气又笑。但现在早已进入了信
息时代，有关国外研究机构、研究人员的资料都可从互联网查得，查不到的，
也可发电子邮件或打电话询问；而“克莱登”却屡见报端，却不可思议，恐怕
只能归咎于记者的懒惰和松懈了。我希望，以后不论是记者还是公众，在见到
留学人员戴着“博士”、“教授”、“主任”、“主席”的桂冠翩然归来时，
要多留一个心眼，记着：“克莱登”以前有，现在有，将来也还会有。
2000.9.23.
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Date: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 0:32:6 +0800
From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
太好了，我十几年没搞明白的问题，现在终于搞明白了。我觉得这问题
已经解决得很圆满了。
只是万教授提到的(sqrt(n)-1)那种情况我还没想明白。万教授估计又
带他儿子去野营了，等他回来再说。
一华
At 00-9-26 8:21:00, ban-shan yuan wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>You two are almost there. But there is a simpler way
>to
>calculate the probability:
>
>pass the first r boys in the queue, let the best one
>be at position b+1, clearly, for it to have non-zero
>contribution to probability, we have b >= r and the
>best of r must also be the best of b, which has a
>chance of r/b.
>
>b can be anywhere between r and N-1, each of which
>has a probability of 1/N, therefore the probability
>to pick the best of all is
>
>G(r) = (1/N)*(r/r + r/(r+1) + ... + r/(N-1))
>
>There are many ways to find the max of G(r) when
>N ->inf, one of which uses the limiting behavior
>of harmonic number H(n) ~ ln(n), so G(r) can be
>written as
>
>G(r) ~ r/N * (H(N) - H(r)) = -(r/N) * ln(r/N)
>
>it's easy to see the max is at r/N = 1/e, and the max
>value of G(r) is also 1/e.
>
>The naive simulation code agreed it seems, let me just
>list the data here: (1st column is N, second is the
>simulated G(floor(N/e)) normalized by 1/e )
>
>4, 1.127000
>5, 1.109331
>6, 1.014191
>7, 1.003046
>8, 0.971786
>9, 0.989455
>10, 0.991086
>11, 0.999784
>108, 0.998697
>205, 0.977766
>302, 1.008754
>399, 0.991901
>496, 0.993532
>593, 0.997338
>690, 0.987552
>787, 0.993804
>884, 0.987008
>981, 0.999240
>1078, 0.987824
>1175, 0.990270
>1272, 1.013375
>1369, 1.000328
>1466, 0.995163
>1563, 0.989726
>1660, 1.010385
>1757, 1.023433
>1854, 0.995978
>1951, 1.020171
>2048, 1.003318
>
>
>-Banshan
>
>One down, One to go
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On Mon, 25 Sep 2000, Zhou Yihua wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> At 00-9-24 22:34:00, Zhou Yihua wrote:
> >G(r)=[C(N-2,r-1)+C(N-3,r-1)/2+C(N-4,r-1)/3+...+C(r,r-1)/(N-r-1)+C(r-1,r-1)/(N-r)]/C(N,r)
> >
> > N-r
> > =Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)/i]/C(N,r)
> > i=1
> >
> >这与Lov Sun列出的公式是完全一样的。
> >
> >现在既然概率式子已列出，剩下的问题就是计算了。如能把公式化简，求导就能算出来了。
> >
> >一华
> >
> 我算不出来。万教授哪去了？
>
> 一华
>
Sorry, I was out for a couple of days.
Yes, it is not easy to simplify G(r). But, we can choose some other
approach.
Use the above listed formula, consider G(r)-G(r+1), you can see (after
some forumla crunching) a recursive formula between G(r) and G(r+1), i.e.
G(r) = r*G(r+1)/(r+1) + 1/n -----------------------(*)
>From (*) you can get the formula that Ban-shan Yuan wrote, i.e.
G(r) = (r/n)*(1/r + 1/(r+1) +....+ 1/(n-1))
and work from there.
This formula crunching approach is not easy. I like Yuan's approach
better. Work from the root is always better than work with a complicated
formula.
Hint: to get (*) you will have to use the following formula:
sum(C(m,k), m = k to j) = C(j+1,k+1)
This can be easily proved by Pascal triangle. In China, we call Pascal
triangle Yang-Hui triangle.
－－万精油－－, formula crunching is no fun
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From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] The game of googol
In-Reply-To: <20000922215902.9096.qmail@web3904.mail.yahoo.com>
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On Fri, 22 Sep 2000, ban-shan yuan wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
>
> --- Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com> wrote:
>
> > From your program, I realized that we are talking
> > about two different
> > problems.
>
> Well, in my defense, I did state in the original that
> "maximize her chance to marry the richest dude" as the
> condition.
Secretary problem (i.e. my version) is a well-known problem, thus, when I
saw the first half of your post, I assumed you were talking about this
well-known problem, especially when I saw the sentence about she has to
pick the last one even if he's the poorest. I didn't finish the rest of
the post, and thus missed your final statement.
Anyway, this is a good problem. It is interesting to solve the problem. I
like the approach you posted. I worked through the hard way (see my post
to Yi-Hua).
> Anyway, I'm glad this thing's been sorted out. Yet
> another example that mathematics(and/or computer code)
> communicates better than human language. :-)
Mathematics language is more precise, but harder understand. So, human
language is more useful in some cases. The confussion here is not caused
by human language, but my neglegting of the last part of your post.
> And it's nice we have two puzzles to solve now,
> buy one and get one free, as they say.
>
The computation of my version is easier.
－－万精油－－, nice to see a new problem.
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From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: [xys_friends] =?X-UNKNOWN?Q?Re=3A_=5Bxys=5Ffriends=5D_=BC=F2=D6=B1=CA=C7=D2=BB=B8?=
=?X-UNKNOWN?Q?=F6=CF=DD=DA=E5=CE=CA=CC=E2=A3=BF?=
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On Thu, 28 Sep 2000, Zhou Yihua wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 太好了，我十几年没搞明白的问题，现在终于搞明白了。我觉得这问题
> 已经解决得很圆满了。
>
> 只是万教授提到的(sqrt(n)-1)那种情况我还没想明白。万教授估计又
> 带他儿子去野营了，等他回来再说。
>
> 一华
>
use the yang-hui formula (see my last post), you can get a quadratic
formula in the dirivative, and you get sqrt(n)-1.
－－万精油－－, you need to write a full page of formula
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From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: Re: [xys_friends] go
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Good writing. I like it very much.
On Mon, 25 Sep 2000, tanglang wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
> 我可没这水平。：）其实也有棋手（比较年轻的）找
> 我去下，我自认水平相差太远，没敢应承。
>
> 本来我想写胡子在关键一步上被旁观的人指点，然后
> 如何如何。后来想想，还是没朝那方面写。也可能一
> 开始就打算让胡子输吧。（事实好象也是胡子输了，
> 是其他家长告诉我的。连着走目外是我亲眼所见，一
> 般来说，这多少有看低对手的意思。眼镜的来历搞不
> 清，我问了几个，都说不知道，我就给瞎编了一通。：））
If this is a true story, then, you can't change anything. If this is a
fictious story, then, I would (if I were writing it) end the last game
with a cyclic-ko (Xun2 - Huan2 - Jie2), i.e nobody wins. Your main
charactor in this novel is HuZi (beard), reader's will not feel very well
if he lose in the end. On the other hand, JianJing (glasses) is not bad
either. Thus, a tie would be a perfect result.
－－万精油－－, don't know how to write a novel, saying something is
easier than doing
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Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2000 19:46:36 -0700 (PDT)
From: ban-shan yuan <banshan_yuan@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] The game of googol
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Sorry, a belated note about this subject line: the
game
is played with a number of paper slips, one writes
arbitary numbers on them, and another tries to guess
the biggest (the googol), if he adopts the strategy
we've shown, the odds he got it right is surprisingly
good. ( a little better than 1/3)
>
> Mathematics language is more precise, but harder
> understand. So, human
> language is more useful in some cases.
In medieval European curriculum, those concerns human
language, grammar, rethoric, logic to be precise, were
called "trivial" subjects. The non-trivial ones, or
the quadrivials, were arithmetic, music, geometry and
astronomy..
-Banshan
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Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2000 20:40:59 -0700
To: xys_friends@listbot.com
From: Shi-min Fang <fang@xys2.org>
Subject: [xys_friends] 埃及金字塔的神话和鬼话（上）
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
（原载《侨报》“独家视野”专栏。可从以下网址取阅：
http://www.chinapressusa.com/week/djsy/djsy.htm）
埃及金字塔的神话和鬼话（上）
·方舟子·
古埃及在文明古国中，是历史最为悠久的一个。从公元前3150年完成统一立国，
一直到公元前332年被古希腊征服，在长达三千年的历史中，古埃及人民创造了光
辉灿烂的文化。其中最令人叹为观止的、成了古埃及象征的就是金字塔了，最大的
金字塔（胡夫金字塔，也称做大金字塔）至今还是世界上最重的建筑物。有关这座
宏伟建筑物的种种传说、神秘故事，还时见报端。概括起来，这类神话和鬼话可分
成三类：一，据说大金字塔暗藏着种种神奇的数字，甚至暗藏着人类的全部历史和
未来；二，据说金字塔有种种魔力；三，据说古埃及人没有能力建造大金字塔，大
金字塔是外星人建的。
这类无稽之谈，可以一直追溯到中世纪。《圣经》曾提到耶酥在小时候由他爸
约瑟带到埃及，中世纪虔诚的基督徒到埃及朝圣时，见到了金字塔，就把它们跟
《圣经》故事联系起来，称之为“约瑟的粮仓”。但是稍有点历史常识的人，就会
对这种称呼嗤之以鼻，因为在耶酥时代的两千年前，金字塔就已存在了。1859年，
一位名叫John Taylor的英国人出版了一本书《大金字塔：为什么建它？谁建了它？》，
对这个基督教传说做了点修正，把大金字塔当成了诺亚的粮仓，至少在时间上不那
么荒唐。虽然Taylor本人从未到过埃及，没有亲身见过大金字塔，但他却在书本上
对大金字塔做了许多研究，深信大金字塔暗藏着神的旨意。他首先发现了大金字塔
在数学上有一些有趣的特征。比如，根据他得到的资料，大金字塔底座边长为9140
英寸，其周长（9140x4）就是36560英寸，除以100得到365.6，很接近一年的天数。
把这个周长除以塔高的两倍，得到的数字很接近圆周率。Taylor在做了诸如此类的
计算之后，得出结论说：大金字塔是以英寸为单位建造的！他进一步推论说，25英
寸等于1“金字塔腕尺(cubit)”，而1千万埃及腕尺大约等于地球两极的直径。总之，
Taylor想要证明的是，大金字塔是一座地球模型，为人类记载了地球的各种数据；
更重要的是，英制是上帝通过大金字塔赋予的神圣单位，胜过了“无神论的法国人”
炮制出来的米制。
与Taylor同时的苏格兰天文学家 Charles Piazzi Smyth同样深信英制胜过米
制，受Taylor的启发，不辞辛苦亲自跑到埃及对大金字塔做了一番测量，“发现”
了一大堆新的神奇数字。其中最著名的、至今仍有人津津乐道的一个，是大金字塔
高度乘以10亿，就刚好等于地球到太阳的距离。做为一名天文学家，Smyth不会不
知道，地球公转轨道并不是圆形的，而是椭圆形的，因此地球到太阳的距离并不是
常数，但是他对这类常识视而不见。Smyth在大金字塔里里外外到处寻找、发现神
奇的数字。他声称，原先镶嵌在大金字塔外面的框石（这些石头早已被拆除）的高
度都刚好是一腕尺25英寸，证明埃及人的确以英寸为单位。以后他做了更“精确”
的测量，发现框石的高度是25.025英寸，认为等于1.001英寸的“金字塔寸”才是
神寸，英寸在长期使用中变短了一点。还有，象塔内国王墓室的石头数目、墓室内
石柜的体积和形状、金字塔的角度等等，都让Smyth觉得暗藏着奥秘。到了这种程
度，任何有理智的人也都不难明白其中的奥妙了：金字塔有许多数据可用，自然界
也有许多数据可用，再随意地加上各种各样的倍数，你一定能发现它们之间的对应
关系。不信的话，你把你家房子的长、宽、高、对角线、地板砖数目等等都量一量、
数一数，然后再拿一本物理常数手册研究，一定也能发现你家充满了神奇的数字。
如果你懒得自己做试验，不妨看看Martin Gardener在《冒充科学的把戏和谬论》
一书中举的例子：
“只当玩笑，如果有人在《世界年鉴》中查找华盛顿纪念碑的数据，他将发现
许多5。它的高度是555英尺5英寸。它的底座是55平方英尺，乘以60（即一年中月
数的5倍），得到3300，而这是顶石重量的磅数。而且，Washington一词恰好有10
个字母（5的2倍）。如果将顶石的重量乘以底座，得到181500，非常接近以每秒英
里为单位的光速。”
如此简单的道理，许多人却看不出来。Smyth在1864年出版的《大金字塔中我们
的遗产》一书，被翻译成了多种文字，到现在还很流行。他发现的“神奇数字”仍
被广泛引用。许多人热衷于研究这门“金字塔神秘学”（Pyramidology）。美国就
有一个“美国金字塔神秘学研究院”，据称有300多名成员。在Smyth的追随者中，
包括许多原教旨的基督徒，比如，“耶和华见证人”的创建者就是一位“金字塔神
秘学”专家。他们的进一步研究发现，世界的未来也包含在金字塔数目之中。根据
这些研究，不同的研究者发布了对世界末日的不同预测：1874年、1914年、1920年、
1925年……，在预言未兑现时他们就“修改”算法将日期往后退。Smyth本人算出
世界末日不会晚于1960年，反正是他不会活着看到的，不会再为预言不准而尴尬。
所有这些修正的预言，当然也全都没能实现。
在Smyth最狂热的信仰者中，有一位是化学工程师。他想要将Smyth的理论发扬
广大，让各种数据再精确一些。他已上了年纪，没法自己到埃及去，便派了儿子去
重新测量大金字塔。这位年轻人，William Matthew Flinders Petrie，在经过细心
的测量后，却推翻了Smyth的各种数据，成了“金字塔神秘学”的强烈反对者。但他
也迷上了金字塔，后来成为当时最著名的埃及学专家，并被认为是科学考古学之父。
Petrie发现，Smyth不仅是胡乱将金字塔数据和天文数据相联系，而且有一些数
据是编造的。大金字塔框石的高度并不都是25英寸，而是有各种各样的尺寸。其底座
的边长也不是刚好9140英寸，而是在9120和9130英寸之间。底座周长除以塔高的两倍，
刚好等于圆周率，这的确是个有趣的现象，因为古埃及人似乎并不知道圆周率的准确
数字。但是对这个现象也并不是没有合理的解释的。根据古希腊历史学家希罗多德的
记载，古埃及人在设计金字塔时，让每面的面积等于塔高的平方。要做到这点并不难，
只要掌握了勾股定律就可以，而远在建金字塔之前，巴比伦人就已掌握了勾股定律。
我们只需做一番几何计算，就会发现，按照这样的设计，底座周长除以塔高的两倍等
于3.145，也很接近圆周率。
Petrie在十九世纪末出版的《考古学七十年》一书中评论那些“金字塔神秘学”
追随者说：
“告诉事实真相是没用的，因为对那些产生这类幻觉的人来说毫无效果。只能
让他们跟信仰地球是平的人和认为理论比事实更可爱的其他类似的人呆在一起。”
因此，对他来说，一百多年后仍然有许多人对这类幻觉深信不疑，也就没什么
奇怪的了。
（待续）
2000.8.18.
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Date: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 17:14:9 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: Re: Re: [xys_friends] go
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-27 13:02:00 Zhiping You写道：
>If this is a true story, then, you can't change anything. If this is a
>fictious story, then, I would (if I were writing it) end the last game
>with a cyclic-ko (Xun2 - Huan2 - Jie2), i.e nobody wins. Your main
>charactor in this novel is HuZi (beard), reader's will not feel very well
>if he lose in the end. On the other hand, JianJing (glasses) is not bad
>either. Thus, a tie would be a perfect result.
>
>－－万精油－－, don't know how to write a novel, saying something is
> easier than doing
大多数的故事是根据一些听说来的消息加工而成的。：）
循环劫是个好主意，有一年中韩青少年围棋对抗赛，
中国一个年轻棋手在收官时和对手打起了连环劫，
互不相让，最后以和棋告终。而后来复盘，发现只
要中国棋手退让一劫，以后的收官又不出什么问题
的话，恰好是半目胜。
如果故事也这么写，的确能增加很多戏剧性。
螳螂
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南德意志报9月28日报道：
FRANZISKA VAN
ALMSICK，22岁，原东德人和过去的“金鱼”，在向德国“周报”解释，
为何她没有得奥运金牌时说：因为民主德国再也不存在了！运动员在民主德国“被教育去团结，
作为运动队共同去进餐和共同离开游泳馆。”现在是“各人顾自己的事”。“我也许早就庆祝
我愿望的奥运金牌，因为在民主德国我不需要对付新闻舆论压力。”
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From: "翔宇" <znetpeng@online.sh.cn>
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Subject: [xys_friends] 新的免费代理服务器
Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2000 12:52:12 +0800
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
各位仁兄不必为上不了论坛苦恼了。
我有一个代理服务器的网址，
因为方教主年初提供了那个无往而不利的PROXY.SPACEPROXY.COM
而多日弃之不用。现在这个代理被封了,我用我的一试,还真灵。
不敢贪污，也算为寺里的论坛作贡献了：）
网址：
http://anon.free.anonymizer.com/http://www.xys.org/
翔宇
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以前那个代理好象又跟国内通了？
anoymizer的坏处是有广告，那个代理没有。
方舟子
At 12:52 PM 9/29/00 +0800, you wrote:
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> 各位仁兄不必为上不了论坛苦恼了。
> 我有一个代理服务器的网址，
>因为方教主年初提供了那个无往而不利的PROXY.SPACEPROXY.COM
>而多日弃之不用。现在这个代理被封了,我用我的一试,还真灵。
>不敢贪污，也算为寺里的论坛作贡献了：）
>网址：
>http://anon.free.anonymizer.com/http://www.xys.org/
>
>
>翔宇
>
>
>______________________________________________________________________
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> 以前那个代理好象又跟国内通了？
> anoymizer的坏处是有广告，那个代理没有。
>
> 方舟子
>
甭好象，还是不通：）
翔宇
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From: Zhou Yihua <yzhou@uninet.com.cn>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
Subject: Re: [xys_friends] 简直是一个陷阱问题？
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At 00-9-27 13:16:00, Zhiping You wrote:
>use the yang-hui formula (see my last post), you can get a quadratic
>formula in the dirivative, and you get sqrt(n)-1.
>
>－－万精油－－, you need to write a full page of formula
>
可以是这样一个公式：
N-r i
A(r)=Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)*Σ(N-j+1)/i]/C(N,r)
i=1 j=1
N-r
=Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)*(2*N-i+1)/2]/C(N,r)
i=1
N-1
=Σ[C(j-1,r-1)*(N+j+1)/2]/C(N,r)
j=r
其中A(r)是将候选者按1到N记分后，每次挑选到的人的平均分数。
求出最大值，r就有了。
谁有更简单的公式？
一华
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Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2000 15:56:07 -0400 (EDT)
From: Zhiping You <zhiping@mathworks.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
On Sat, 30 Sep 2000, Zhou Yihua wrote:
> Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>
> At 00-9-27 13:16:00, Zhiping You wrote:
>
> >use the yang-hui formula (see my last post), you can get a quadratic
> >formula in the dirivative, and you get sqrt(n)-1.
> >
> >－－万精油－－, you need to write a full page of formula
> >
> 可以是这样一个公式：
>
> N-r i
> A(r)=Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)*Σ(N-j+1)/i]/C(N,r)
> i=1 j=1
>
> N-r
> =Σ[C(N-1-i,r-1)*(2*N-i+1)/2]/C(N,r)
> i=1
>
> N-1
> =Σ[C(j-1,r-1)*(N+j+1)/2]/C(N,r)
> j=r
>
> 其中A(r)是将候选者按1到N记分后，每次挑选到的人的平均分数。
> 求出最大值，r就有了。
>
> 谁有更简单的公式？
You are not listenning. :)
As I hinted in my previous post, use the following formula:
k
ΣC(j,r) = C(k+1,r+1) for any k >= r
j=r
You can simplify your last formula into a simple formula (i.e. with no
summation). You will also have to add the expected value of picking up
the last item. Then, the rest of the problem is taking direvative and
solve a quadratic equation.
Good luck.
－－万精油－－
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Date: Sat, 30 Sep 2000 18:38:55 -0700
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From: yige <yige@mediaone.net>
Subject: [xys_friends] 读奥运有感
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
最近一阵子天天读奥运新闻，发现新闻调子和以前大不一样了。
如退回十几年去，报上大概少不了来几句“这是一次团结的大
会，胜利的大会，是一次继往开来的大会”，然后再大谈一通
什么友谊第一，比赛第二；犹如早年穷的时候人戴的假领子，
明明是买不起那几尺布，却美其名曰凉爽。如今的新闻报道里
这样的穷酸象一扫而空。譬如说在报道陈中在跆拳道中以极大
的优势嬴了俄国对手后，报上说俄国的对手在比赛中见了陈中，
就好象是“老姑娘见了大姑娘，浑身不自在，可又不知是哪儿
不自在。”又如谈跳水，说自熊倪得了冠军后，“中国跳水队
经历了一场甜蜜的大喘气”。要是在十几年前读到这样的句子，
我肯定会认为我老眼昏花了，在堂堂的国家一级的青年报上咋
能大谈性高潮呢？不过如今，象这样的报道却是在头版连篇累
牍。自信和大度中夹杂着一些幽默，这是一种良好的大国心态，
简直快有几分唐人的影子了！
这次最让我感动的，莫过于看见女子四乘一百进入了决赛！这
个结果比任何一块金牌都重要。当美国电视上播出我国女将在
一大堆黑珍珠中间飞跑的英姿，差点然我老泪纵横。
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Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 9:40:57 +0800
From: tanglang <tanglang99@yahoo.com>
To: Friends of Xin Yu Si <xys_friends@listbot.com>
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Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
在 00-9-30 18:38:00 yige写道：
>Friends of Xin Yu Si - http://www.xys.org
>最近一阵子天天读奥运新闻，发现新闻调子和以前大不一样了。
>如退回十几年去，报上大概少不了来几句“这是一次团结的大
>会，胜利的大会，是一次继往开来的大会”，然后再大谈一通
>什么友谊第一，比赛第二；犹如早年穷的时候人戴的假领子，
>明明是买不起那几尺布，却美其名曰凉爽。如今的新闻报道里
>这样的穷酸象一扫而空。譬如说在报道陈中在跆拳道中以极大
>的优势嬴了俄国对手后，报上说俄国的对手在比赛中见了陈中，
>就好象是“老姑娘见了大姑娘，浑身不自在，可又不知是哪儿
>不自在。”又如谈跳水，说自熊倪得了冠军后，“中国跳水队
>经历了一场甜蜜的大喘气”。要是在十几年前读到这样的句子，
>我肯定会认为我老眼昏花了，在堂堂的国家一级的青年报上咋
>能大谈性高潮呢？不过如今，象这样的报道却是在头版连篇累
>牍。自信和大度中夹杂着一些幽默，这是一种良好的大国心态，
>简直快有几分唐人的影子了！
亦歌读奥运新闻是在网上吧。：）现在国内报刊在体育、娱乐
方面的报道，还是非常活泼的，电视里也少了不少说教腔，与
前十几年相比，进步甚多。但另一方面，大多体育记者包括电
视主持人的素质还是不够强，说起来就是不够敬业。网上寻他
们开心的人也不少。此次奥运CCTV的两个主持人，白岩松还算
可以，那个宁辛，听她说话，真是要为她着急的，恐怕我上去，
都会比她说得溜。：）
>这次最让我感动的，莫过于看见女子四乘一百进入了决赛！这
>个结果比任何一块金牌都重要。当美国电视上播出我国女将在
>一大堆黑珍珠中间飞跑的英姿，差点然我老泪纵横。
田径！田径！中国这次田径上只拿了一块金牌。田径可是一切
运动的基础啊。还有游泳，全军覆没。
兄弟说话有点偏激，是不是体育强国，有没有群众体育基础，
还是得看田径。
螳螂
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